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Phillips 66 (PSX) Gears Up for Q3 Earnings: What's in Store?

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Phillips 66 PSX is set to report third-quarter 2021 results on Oct 29, before the opening bell.

In the last reported quarter, the diversified energy manufacturing and logistics company reported adjusted earnings per share of 74 cents, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 71 cents driven by recovered product demand, as more people have started stepping out for work and leisure owing to the rapid rolling out of coronavirus vaccines. Higher contributions from transportation activities and increased realized refining margins aided the bottom line.

The company surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 28.6%, as shown in the chart below.

Phillips 66 Price and EPS Surprise

Phillips 66 Price and EPS Surprise
Phillips 66 Price and EPS Surprise

Phillips 66 price-eps-surprise | Phillips 66 Quote

Let’s see how things have shaped up prior to the upcoming earnings announcement.

Trend in Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings per share of $1.95 has witnessed five upward revisions in the past 30 days against no downward movement. The estimated figure suggests a massive improvement from the year-ago loss of 1 cent per share.

The consensus estimate for third-quarter revenues of $22.5 billion indicates a 37.8% increase from the year-ago reported figure.

Factors to Consider

With the rapid economic recovery witnessed in the domestic market, Phillips 66’s sales in the third quarter are expected to have witnessed an upward thrust. People stepping out for work and leisure are expected to have boosted transportation activities, in turn increasing the demand for the company’s products. This is more or less true for the vast majority of the economies around the globe. As such, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for realized refining margin on a worldwide basis is pegged at $7.11 per barrel, indicating an increase from the year-ago level of $1.78. This is likely to have positioned Phillips 66 for huge profits in the quarter.

However, higher crude prices in the third quarter might have robbed the company of massive potential gains. Also, Hurricane Ida-related downtimes in the September quarter might have affected refining operations in Louisiana.

Refinery production in the Central Corridor is expected to have been lower than the year-ago level. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for refinery output in the Central Corridor is pegged at 459 thousand barrels per day (MBbls/d), indicating a decline from 469 MBbls/d a year ago, making an earnings beat uncertain.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Phillips 66 this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Earnings ESP: The company’s Earnings ESP is 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate is currently pegged at $1.95 per share, the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Zacks Rank: Phillips 66 currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Phillips 66, here are some companies from the Energy space that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat in the upcoming quarterly reports:

EQT Corporation EQT has an Earnings ESP of +4.29% and a Zacks Rank of 2. It is scheduled to report third-quarter results on Oct 27. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Callon Petroleum Company CPE has an Earnings ESP of +0.50% and is a Zacks #1 Ranked player. The company is scheduled to release third-quarter results on Nov 3.

Continental Resources, Inc. CLR has an Earnings ESP of +2.55% and a Zacks Rank #1. The firm is scheduled to release quarterly earnings on Nov 1.


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