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A Piece Of The Puzzle Missing From CAI International, Inc.'s (NYSE:CAI) 26% Share Price Climb

Simply Wall St
·4 mins read

CAI International, Inc. (NYSE:CAI) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 26% gain in the last month alone. Looking further back, the 19% rise over the last twelve months isn't too bad notwithstanding the strength over the last 30 days.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, given close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 18x, you may still consider CAI International as an attractive investment with its 15.1x P/E ratio. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's limited.

With earnings that are retreating more than the market's of late, CAI International has been very sluggish. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to improve at all. If you still like the company, you'd want its earnings trajectory to turn around before making any decisions. If not, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for CAI International

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Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on CAI International will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

Does Growth Match The Low P/E?

CAI International's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 44% decrease to the company's bottom line. Still, the latest three year period has seen an excellent 157% overall rise in EPS, in spite of its unsatisfying short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a very good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the twin analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 34% per year over the next three years. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 13% per annum growth forecast for the broader market.

In light of this, it's peculiar that CAI International's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently some shareholders are doubtful of the forecasts and have been accepting significantly lower selling prices.

The Key Takeaway

The latest share price surge wasn't enough to lift CAI International's P/E close to the market median. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that CAI International currently trades on a much lower than expected P/E since its forecast growth is higher than the wider market. When we see a strong earnings outlook with faster-than-market growth, we assume potential risks are what might be placing significant pressure on the P/E ratio. At least price risks look to be very low, but investors seem to think future earnings could see a lot of volatility.

Before you settle on your opinion, we've discovered 5 warning signs for CAI International (1 doesn't sit too well with us!) that you should be aware of.

Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than CAI International. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that sit on P/E's below 20x and have grown earnings strongly.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.