Proceed with caution! That’s the investing advice from the legendary Bill Gross, founder and managing director of PIMCO, on this jobs day that saw July’s number come in under analyst expectations. Gross says the recent movement of the markets here and abroad has little to do with such economic data and most likely won’t be greatly impacted by it either.
Instead, he says, “It speaks to the potential for a global mini trade war between Russia and the rest of the world and it speaks to Argentina in terms of a default and a potential for bond investors in other countries to simply say ‘ya know it’s not worth the risk.’”
Gross also notes that this market is particularly strange at the moment and cite the unusual occurrence of German bunds going “up in yield and down in price during the same time in which risk markets, equity markets, go down in price.”
While such an unusual and unpredictable market might make many investors legitimately nervous Gross reminds us it’s simply “a global marketplace that is deflating and de-levering to a certain extent. It’s not Lehman Brothers of 2008.”
So where should you be camping out right now? “It appears the only safe haven,” Gross says, “is the front end of the U.S. yield curve in which the market expects the Fed to stay on hold for longer.”