It's been a good week for Pool Corporation (NASDAQ:POOL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest full-year results, and the shares gained 2.6% to US$234. Pool reported in line with analyst predictions, delivering revenues of US$3.2b and statutory earnings per share of US$6.40, suggesting the business is executing well and in line with its plan. Analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
Following the latest results, Pool's seven analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$3.42b in 2020. This would be a reasonable 7.0% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per-share earnings are expected to be US$6.63, roughly flat on the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$6.71 in 2020. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$223, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Pool analyst has a price target of US$245 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$198. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggests analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. Next year brings more of the same, according to analysts, with revenue forecast to grow 7.0%, in line with its 7.3% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the wider market, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 3.4% next year. So although Pool is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion from these results is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with analysts still expecting the business to grow faster than the wider market. The consensus price target held steady at US$223, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on analysts' estimated valuations.
Still, the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Pool analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It might also be worth considering whether Pool's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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