Price & Time: Anticipating a Lively September & October
Tactical decline in EUR/USD beginning to take shape
USD/JPY fails at projection level
Gold outlook remain positive
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Weekly Foreign Exchange Price & Time at a Glance:
Weekly Price & Time Analysis: EUR/USD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
EUR/USD came under further downside pressure this week to trade to its lowest level since mid-July
While below the 1.3415 2Q13 high our broader trend bias will remain lower in the single currency
A weekly close below the 2nd square root progression of the August high at 1.3220 will be further evidence that a more important decline is unfolding
The second half of next week is a medium-term cycle turn window in the rate
A move through the 1.3320 61.8% retracement of the late August – September decline would relieve the immediate downside pressure, but only a weekly close over 1.3415 turns us positive
Weekly EUR/USD Strategy: Still short against a weekly close over 1.3415
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
EUR/USD | 1.3020 | *1.3100 | 1.3170 | 1.3315 | *1.3415 |
Weekly Price & Time Analysis: USD/JPY
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
USD/JPY touched the 100% projection of the initial August advance on Friday before coming under aggressive downside pressure
While above the 2Q13 low near .9375 our longer-term trend bias will remain higher in the exchange rate
The projection level at 100.15 and the 78.6% retracement of the July – August decline at 100.30 are now important pivots with a weekly close above required to signal the start of a new leg higher
The next medium-term cycle turn window is seen in about a week
A cluster of Gann supports near 98.60, 97.60 and 96.70 are important, but only weakness below .9375 will turn the broader outlook to negative in USD/JPY
Weekly USD/JPY Strategy: Tactical longs favored against .9375
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
USD/JPY | 97.60 | 98.60 | 1.5605 | *100.30 | 100.70 |
Weekly Price & Time Analysis: GOLD
Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Kristian Kerr
XAU/USD came under further downside pressure this week following last week’s failure at the 7th square roo progression of the year-to-date low in the 1418 area
While over the 3rd square root progression of the year’s low at 1280 our broader trend bias will remain higher in the metal
A move through 1418 and the 100% projection of the July advance near 1440 is needed to set off the next important move higher in the metal
The middle of the month looks like a cycle turn window
The 1350 area is important support, but only a weekly close below 1280 would turn us longer-term negative on Gold
Weekly XAU/USD Strategy: Like tactical long positions in Gold while above 1280.
Instrument | Support 2 | Support 1 | Spot | Resistance 1 | Resistance 2 |
XAU/USD | *1280 | 1350 | 1387 | 1418 | *1440 |
--- Written by Kristian Kerr, Senior Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
This publication attempts to further explore the concept that mass movements of human psychology, as represented by the financial markets, are subject to the mathematical laws of nature and through the use of various geometric, arithmetic, statistical and cyclical techniques a better understanding of markets and their corresponding movements can be achieved
Looking for a way to pinpoint sentiment extremes in the Gold in real time? Try the Speculative Sentiment Index.
To contact Kristian, e-mail kkerr@fxcm.com. Follow me on Twitter @KKerrFX
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