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Progressive (PGR) Gains But Lags Market: What You Should Know

Zacks Equity Research
Momo Inc. (MOMO) closed the most recent trading day at $35.67, moving -1.03% from the previous trading session.

Progressive (PGR) closed the most recent trading day at $72.85, moving +0.8% from the previous trading session. The stock lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 1.47%. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.79%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 2.02%.

Prior to today's trading, shares of the insurer had gained 6.72% over the past month. This has outpaced the Finance sector's gain of 0.38% and the S&P 500's gain of 1.5% in that time.

Investors will be hoping for strength from PGR as it approaches its next earnings release. In that report, analysts expect PGR to post earnings of $1.40 per share. This would mark year-over-year growth of 14.75%. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $8.86 billion, up 18.52% from the prior-year quarter.

For the full year, our Zacks Consensus Estimates are projecting earnings of $5.07 per share and revenue of $37.55 billion, which would represent changes of +14.71% and +15.95%, respectively, from the prior year.

It is also important to note the recent changes to analyst estimates for PGR. These recent revisions tend to reflect the evolving nature of short-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company's business outlook.

Our research shows that these estimate changes are directly correlated with near-term stock prices. To benefit from this, we have developed the Zacks Rank, a proprietary model which takes these estimate changes into account and provides an actionable rating system.

The Zacks Rank system ranges from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell). It has a remarkable, outside-audited track record of success, with #1 stocks delivering an average annual return of +25% since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 1.35% higher. PGR is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy).

Valuation is also important, so investors should note that PGR has a Forward P/E ratio of 14.24 right now. For comparison, its industry has an average Forward P/E of 12.89, which means PGR is trading at a premium to the group.

It is also worth noting that PGR currently has a PEG ratio of 1.94. The PEG ratio is similar to the widely-used P/E ratio, but this metric also takes the company's expected earnings growth rate into account. PGR's industry had an average PEG ratio of 1.22 as of yesterday's close.

The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry is part of the Finance sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 96, putting it in the top 38% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.


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