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Progressive (PGR) Gains But Lags Market: What You Should Know

Zacks Equity Research

Progressive (PGR) closed the most recent trading day at $77.30, moving +0.74% from the previous trading session. The stock lagged the S&P 500's daily gain of 0.83%. Meanwhile, the Dow gained 0.93%, and the Nasdaq, a tech-heavy index, added 0.9%.

Coming into today, shares of the insurer had lost 4.75% in the past month. In that same time, the Finance sector lost 4.34%, while the S&P 500 lost 2.38%.

PGR will be looking to display strength as it nears its next earnings release. On that day, PGR is projected to report earnings of $1.30 per share, which would represent a year-over-year decline of 17.2%. Meanwhile, our latest consensus estimate is calling for revenue of $9.39 billion, up 12.96% from the prior-year quarter.

Looking at the full year, our Zacks Consensus Estimates suggest analysts are expecting earnings of $5.40 per share and revenue of $37.36 billion. These totals would mark changes of +22.17% and +15.36%, respectively, from last year.

Investors should also note any recent changes to analyst estimates for PGR. These revisions help to show the ever-changing nature of near-term business trends. As a result, we can interpret positive estimate revisions as a good sign for the company's business outlook.

Based on our research, we believe these estimate revisions are directly related to near-team stock moves. We developed the Zacks Rank to capitalize on this phenomenon. Our system takes these estimate changes into account and delivers a clear, actionable rating model.

Ranging from #1 (Strong Buy) to #5 (Strong Sell), the Zacks Rank system has a proven, outside-audited track record of outperformance, with #1 stocks returning an average of +25% annually since 1988. Over the past month, the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate has moved 0.8% higher. PGR currently has a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold).

Digging into valuation, PGR currently has a Forward P/E ratio of 14.21. This represents a discount compared to its industry's average Forward P/E of 15.1.

Investors should also note that PGR has a PEG ratio of 1.94 right now. This popular metric is similar to the widely-known P/E ratio, with the difference being that the PEG ratio also takes into account the company's expected earnings growth rate. Insurance - Property and Casualty stocks are, on average, holding a PEG ratio of 1.45 based on yesterday's closing prices.

The Insurance - Property and Casualty industry is part of the Finance sector. This group has a Zacks Industry Rank of 43, putting it in the top 17% of all 250+ industries.

The Zacks Industry Rank gauges the strength of our individual industry groups by measuring the average Zacks Rank of the individual stocks within the groups. Our research shows that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1.

You can find more information on all of these metrics, and much more, on Zacks.com.


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