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Quadruple Witching Day Ahead: Heavy Traffic Expected

Stephen Innes

No longer are investors happy with the Fed hitting the minimum of rate cut expectation, it appears they now demand a holiday surprise.

However, maybe investors took one look at the calendar and decided to take a pass as Friday quadruple witching day looms ominously. After escaping this week no worse for the wear, no one wants to get steamrolled by a possible surge in volatility as the IMM expirations are expected to create a massive traffic zone later today.

The Fed fallout

If the Fed was suggesting that it is done for the year, the market doesn’t appear to be listing. This point is nothing new as the market decided long ago that it was right, and the Fed was wrong. Moreover, looking at US news flows from overnight, it appears little has changed in that narrative. In other words, “trade war” concerns supersede consumer and labour market strength.

At the end of the day and despite the accommodating move in the dots, the barrier to ‘out dove’ the rates markets remain high, suggesting there could be more disappointment to come.

Oil Markets

Oil markets are giving Saudi Arabia the benefit of the doubt they can deliver on the optimistic timeline for the restoration of production following last weekend’s attacks.

Doubts leaked into the equation after reports that Aramco was looking to import crude oil for its Saudi refineries sent oil prices higher( later denied) — leading oil speculators to surmise the repairs are not going along as smoothly as hoped and that Saudi Arabia oil stores are not as ample as had been assumed.

Prices then fell as tropical storm Imelda drenched the heart of Texas oil country with a reported 25-40 inches of rain. The deluge has caused extensive flooding has forced the shutdown of crucial oil pipelines and causing disruptions at operations at the US Gulf Coast terminal. Due to the severity of the flooding, it’s expected to weigh on the demand for domestic crude while delays at key export hubs could occur.

Still, even with the fall in prices, the forward curve remains bid as traders are hedging that the initial estimates for the duration of repairs, given the complex nature, could well underestimate the time required. All of which continued to keep a bid under prompt oil markets

Also, the politics of war continues to move in the background. While US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said, President Trump wants a peaceful resolution. Saudi Arabia foreign minister Al -Jubeir was not as amenable, suggesting that “complacency toward Iran will encourage it to commit further acts with implication for the world. All the while, the US continues to build a sturdy collation to hammer Iran with sanctions as a primary deterrent which is causing Iran to lash out.

As we head to the weekend, traders are very reluctant to give up the so-called ” lottery ticket trade.” (spike to $100) The market continues to price in higher geopolitical risk, with the full-length forward curve now steeper than it was pre-attack Given the level of uncertainty into the weekend, prices could remain skewed to the upside.

Gold Markets

For a trade supposedly hinged on a uber dovish central bank narrative, gold has remained remarkably resilient on dips — garnering support from geopolitical risk in the Middle East and the lower for longer central bank interest rate narrative.

The long Gold trade continues to resonate with investors as it provides the ultimate hedge against recessionary fears which remain elevated. Moreover, as US-China trade tension persists, it will likely force the Fed’s hands to cut interest rates later aggressively.

While the market does remain vulnerable to a near term correction, especially as the market continues to debate Fed policy, and improving trade news flows could take some of the shine off owning gold. The markets proclivity to buy gold in dips suggests any correction could remain shallow at best.

Yuan watch

The Yuan remains at the epicentre risk markets in Asia. The Yuan is the critical bellwether gauge of trade war sentiment as well as the outlook for the world second-largest economy. But with the market is looking out for any updates on the working level meetings between China and the US this week and US Congress reviewing the bill to support Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protesters, there are even more uncertainties at play than normal.

Australia Markets

The explosive rally in the Australian fixed-income market has grabbed more than a few trader attention after the jobless report brought forward expectation of an RBA rate cut. October RBA cut expectations are in bloom again as October is priced for 20bps of reductions.

The quick sell-off in the Australian Dollar suggests the market is nowhere nearly as prepared as they should be for possible RBA action. After all, traders had all but thought the rate cut story had run its course, and more easy money was all but a pipe dream after Jackson Hole when Governor Lowe said: “Monetary policy cannot deliver medium-term growth. We risk just pushing up asset prices.” Instead, he called for investment in infrastructure and structural reforms.

Since the Fed has apparently disappointed the uber doves and with a policy game-changing local unemployment report now hugely in play, the Aussie has traded with an offered tone since which could keep the market on a path for a test of the year low sub .6675 over the next few weeks.

This article was written by Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific Market Strategist at AxiTrader

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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