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It's been a sad week for Quanterix Corporation (NASDAQ:QTRX), who've watched their investment drop 17% to US$19.78 in the week since the company reported its full-year result. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at US$57m, roughly what analysts had been expecting. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what analysts' statutory forecasts suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Quanterix from five analysts is for revenues of US$72.7m in 2020, which is a substantial 28% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to narrow 7.3% to US$1.57 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$70.5m and losses of US$1.69 per share in 2020. So it seems there's been a definite increase in optimism about Quanterix's future following the latest results, with a slight bump in the earnings per share forecasts in particular.
Despite these upgrades, analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of US$33.00, implying that their latest estimates don't have a long term impact on what they think the stock is worth. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Quanterix, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$35.00 and the most bearish at US$30.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or that analysts have a clear view on its prospects.
In addition, we can look to Quanterix's past performance and see whether business is expected to improve, and if the company is expected to perform better than wider market. We would highlight that Quanterix's revenue growth is expected to slow, with forecast 28% increase next year well below the historical 40%p.a. growth over the last three years. By way of comparison, other companies in this market with analyst coverage, are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.4% next year. So it's pretty clear that, while Quanterix's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the market itself.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider market. The consensus price target held steady at US$33.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on analysts' estimated valuations.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Quanterix. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Quanterix going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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