Quarterhill Inc (TSE:QTRH) Is Trading At A 42.24% Discount To Its Intrinsic Value
I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of Quarterhill Inc (TSX:QTRH) using the discounted cash flow (DCF) method. If you want to learn more about this method, the basis for my calculations can be found in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Also note that this article was written in February 2018 so be sure check the latest calculation for Quarterhill here.
Crunching the numbers
I’ve used the 2-stage growth model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second ‘steady growth’ period. To begin, I use the analyst consensus forecast of QTRH’s levered free cash flow (FCF) over the next five years and discounted these values at the rate of 13.66%. When estimates weren’t available, I’ve extrapolated the average annual growth rate over the previous five years, capped at a reasonable level. This resulted in a present value of 5-year cash flow of $140.5M. Keen to know how I calculated this value? Take a look at our detailed analysis here.
In the visual above, we see how how QTRH’s top and bottom lines are expected to move going forward, which should give you an idea of QTRH’s outlook. Now we need to calculate the terminal value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after the five years. I think it’s suitable to use the 10-year government bond rate of 2.8% as the perpetual growth rate, which is rightly below GDP growth, but more towards the conservative side. After discounting the terminal value back five years, the present value becomes $202.6M.
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next five years and the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is $343.1M. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. This results in an intrinsic value of CA$3.64, which, compared to the current share price of CA$2.1, we see that Quarterhill is quite good value at a 42.24% discount to what it is available for right now.
Next Steps:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For QTRH, there are three relevant factors you should look at:
1. Financial Health: Does QTRH have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
2. Future Earnings: How does QTRH’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
2. Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of QTRH? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow for every stock on the TSX every 6 hours. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
To help readers see pass the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned.
