Hedge fund titan Ray Dalio, the founder of $160 billion Bridgewater Associates, is less worried than before about the odds of a recession happening in the U.S. before the 2020 presidential election.
"[While] I still expect that there will be a significant slowing of growth in the U.S. and most other countries, I have lowered my odds of a U.S. recession coming prior to the U.S. election to about 35%," Dalio wrote in a LinkedIn blog post Wednesday evening.
Just 18 months ago, he set the odds of a recession above 50%, arguing that the Federal Reserve’s tightening in response to the U.S.'s "growth spurt" would send stocks and ultimately the economy down. And while speaking at Harvard in February 2018, he reportedly said the probability could be as high as 70%.
"Because the markets weakened and Fed officials now see that the economy and inflation are weak there has been a shift to an easier stance by the Fed," he writes in the new blog post, "Similarly, because of weaker markets, economies, and inflation rates in other countries, other central banks have also become more inclined to ease, though they have less room to ease than the Fed."
Dalio noted that the Fed can lower rates by more than 2% to put off a recession, but "probably doesn't have enough firepower to offset a deep recession."
He added that he remains worried about economic weakness in other parts of the world like Japan and Europe.
Julia La Roche is a finance reporter at Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter. Send tips to email@example.com.