It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Rayonier (RYN). Shares have lost about 0.3% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Rayonier due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
Rayonier's Net Income & Revenues Lag Q4 Estimates
Rayonier reported fourth-quarter 2018 pro-forma net income per share of 2 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 3 cents. Moreover, the reported figure comes in lower than the prior-year figure of 20 cents.
The bottom line was impacted by a decline in operating income of the company’s New Zealand Timber, Real Estate and Trading segments.
Total revenues for the quarter came in at $166.1 million, plunging nearly 31% year over year. Nonetheless, it handily outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $163.5 million.
The company reported 2018 pro-forma net income per share of 79 cents, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a whisker. Yet, the tally improved 21.5% year over year. Also, revenues for full-year 2018 came in at $816.1 million, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $813.5 million. It indicates a marginal decline from the year-ago figure of $819.6 million.
During the reported quarter, operating income in the company’s Southern Timber segment was $7.2 million, flat compared with the year-ago tally.
The Pacific Northwest Timber posted operating loss of $4.1 million compared to $2.4 million of operating income recorded in fourth-quarter 2017.
The New Zealand Timber reported operating income of $12.6 million, down from the prior-year tally of $16.1 million.
Real Estate’s operating income was $4.6 million, lower than the year-ago figure of $58.8 million.
The Trading segment’s operating income was $0.3 million, down from the year-earlier figure of $1.2 million.
Lastly, the Corporate and Other segment posted operating loss of $5.6 million, flat compared with the year-ago tally.
Rayonier ended the fourth quarter with $148.4 million in cash and cash equivalents, up from $112.7 million recorded as of Dec 31, 2017. Total long-term debt was $972.6 million, down from $1.02 billion as on Dec 31, 2017.
The company expects net income of $60-$69 million in 2019, while earnings per share is anticipated to be in the band of 46-53 cents.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. The consensus estimate has shifted -42.1% due to these changes.
Currently, Rayonier has a subpar Growth Score of D, though it is lagging a bit on the Momentum Score front with an F. Following the exact same course, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of F. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. Notably, Rayonier has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.
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