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As Stock Market Looks ‘Highly Euphoric’, RBC Touts Small Caps

Joanna Ossinger
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As Stock Market Looks ‘Highly Euphoric’, RBC Touts Small Caps

(Bloomberg) -- There’s a solution for anyone concerned U.S. stock positioning is too exuberant, according to RBC Capital Markets: lean toward small caps.

Shares of smaller companies are deeply undervalued versus those of large ones, so positioning has “more room to run,” RBC strategists led by Lori Calvasina wrote in a note Wednesday. Valuations for big caps were at 1.45 standard deviations above their long-term average and the highest since the tech bubble as of mid-January. For smaller companies, they were 0.83 standard deviations above their own mean, they said, citing RBC’s multi-factor model.

“When we look at positioning in U.S. equities generally in the futures market, we continue to find that it is highly euphoric,” Calvasina wrote. “Unlike large caps, which look highly overvalued, small-cap valuations continue to look only modestly overvalued relative to history.”

Read how some measures of positioning are extended, and a warning about it.

For a small-cap breakout to sustain, more evidence of healing in the industrial economy is needed, Calvasina said. Since smaller companies tend to be seen as a domestic U.S. play, they might be expected to thrive when forecasts for the American economy are strengthening. Their shares didn’t benefit as much as they should have from the Federal Reserve’s easing moves last year, and the stocks should be supported by stabilization in measures like freight shipments, she added.

The S&P 500 rose 0.2% to 3,289.78 as of 9:45 a.m. in New York on Wednesday, and the Russell 2000 advanced 0.3% to 1,680.62.

Calvasina notes that high debt burdens and low earnings quality are “valid reasons” to still be nervous about small caps, but she says the way to deal with this is to prefer active management in the space because it can help steer around those issues via company selection.

(Adds market moves in fifth paragraph.)

--With assistance from Rita Nazareth.

To contact the reporter on this story: Joanna Ossinger in Singapore at jossinger@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Christopher Anstey at canstey@bloomberg.net, Lianting Tu, Cecile Vannucci

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