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The analysts say that evidence of an effective and tolerable agent and a clear recommended phase 2 dose for ziftomenib should support an upside of ~$8-10/share to their NPV. A topline update from Phase 1b study is expected in Q3 and detailed data in Q4.
Downside scenarios include an incomplete/inconclusive update that may disappoint expectations, though the scenario is unlikely.
Fully de-risked, Credit Suisse believes the relapsed or refractory setting might be worth ~$18/share, with expansion into the frontline setting taking the total asset value to ~$40-45/share.
The analysts view ziftomenib as best-in-class potential among the menin inhibitors, as it may differentiate on tolerability/safety and allow for a more comprehensive combo strategy.
With initial approval in 2025, peak sales can potentially be over $1 billion, assuming successful frontline expansion.
Kura's management has consistently said that a 20-30% CR/CRh rate with mDOR 4-6 months would likely be an approvable profile, consistent with the company's survey/KOLs.
Price Action: KURA shares are up 6.15% at $19.04 during the market session on the last check Wednesday.
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