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Readying for the Fed

John Kicklighter

Risk will be heavy over the forthcoming 72 hours of trading. If I had to highlight one particular event that stands out amongst a range of an important events, the ECB policy decision would take the cake. There has been so much risk speculation and euro positioning that was leveraged by Draghi's supposed proposals last week, so the market is particularly focused on this event.

That said, they won't ignore the Fed decision. Speculation surrounding the most prolific supplier of stimulus is starting to starting to turn more realistic (no additional increase to the operation twist expansion from last month). This concern amongst the moral hazard prone may curb the pain of not receiving additional support and further leverage the ECB to put up an effort of its own. However, fundamentals are such that a drop in risk is easy to encourage.

I generally try to avoid risk exposure heading into this event (because gauging the outcome and market reaction to the Fed is more of a coin toss), but I do have some exposure. My GBPUSD short from 1.5720 is still on, but I have trailed to stop up to break even (the decision will be made around 1.5660).

Otherwise, my USDJPY long from 78.50 is a very small exposure and is meant to hold for months forward. I am similiarly patient with my EURCHF long - awaiting the SNB's decision to act or fold at its 1.2000 floor. New to the non-risk group is a GBPCAD long I took at 1.5715 (with a 1.5660 stop). There are some spillover concerns with the US health for the CAD, and the GBP will be an issue come Thursday's ECB and BoE decisions; so I will have to see how this is performing leading into Thursday's event risk.

Looking at the potential for volatility with the proper fundamental encouragement, there is plenty of opportunity out there. For a long risk, anti-dollar outcome for the Fed decision, I like EURUSD above 1.2325 or USDCAD below 0.9725 (they are highly correlated, so only one will do). For a reversal, I like AUDUSD or NZDUSD turning off their respective channel tops. There are plenty of risk-related opportunities out there, but I'll have to play them as they come; because the ECB can alter expectations and the impact fo the Fed. For my full expectations for the Fed, check out today's video.