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Recommendation: Watch for key releases during this eventful week

Brent Nyitray, CFA, MBA

Recommendation: Watch for key releases during this eventful week (Part 1 of 6)

What to watch for in real estate this week

This week promises to be eventful for real estate–related companies, with the all-important jobs report, the FOMC meeting, and lots of earnings. Bond investors have been lulled into a sense of complacency, as bonds have been meandering back and forth in a tight trading range.

This FOMC meeting won’t have any changes to economic forecasts. But investors will still focus on the language regarding when short-term rates will begin to increase.

Economic data this week

Monday, July 28

  • Markit Composite PMI
  • Markit US Services PMI
  • Pending home sales
  • Dallas Fed

Tuesday, July 29

  • S&P / Case Shiller Home Price Index
  • Consumer confidence

Wednesday, July 30

  • MBA Mortgage Applications
  • ADP Employment Change
  • 2Q GDP
  • Personal consumption
  • FOMC meeting

Thursday, July 31

  • Initial jobless claims
  • Bloomberg Consumer Comfort
  • Challenger Job Cuts
  • Employment Cost Index
  • ISM Milwaukee
  • Chicago Purchasing Manager

Friday, August 1

  • Unemployment rate
  • Non-farm payrolls
  • Average hourly earnings
  • Average weekly hours
  • Labor force participation rate
  • Personal income
  • Personal spending
  • Markit Manufacturing PMI
  • ISM Manufacturing
  • Construction spending
  • University of Michigan Confidence

Earnings reports this week

Monday, July 28

  • American Capital Agency (AGNC)

Tuesday, July 29

  • American Realty Capital Partners (ARCP)

Thursday, July 31

  • Ocwen (OCN)

Impact on mortgage REITs

Mortgage REITs like American Capital Agency (AGNC) and Annaly (NLY) will focus on data that will move the bond market. For them, it will be all about the FOMC meeting and the jobs report on Friday.

Impact on homebuilders

Builders will focus on more macro data like the advance estimate for second quarter GDP—which is forecast to come in around 3%. The ISM data is hugely important, as is the jobs report. Finally, we’ll get Case-Shiller, which is the real estate price index that most people follow.

Impact on commercial REITs

The most important data for commercial REITs will be personal spending data. This data will interest mall REITs like Simon Property Group (SPG) and General Growth Properties (GGP).

Office REITs like Brookfield Office Properties (BPO) and Vornado Realty Trust (VNO) will be most interested in Friday’s jobs report, as payroll growth is a key driver of vacancy rates.

Continue to Part 2

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