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Record August for Bond Issuance May Aid Credit Quality (Capital Market Research) (Weekly Market Outlook)

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<meta name="subject" content="In terms of US$-denominated supply, corporate bond issuance attained record highs for the month of August. More specifically, August 2020 s corporate bond issuance rose to record highs of $156 billion for investment-grade and $56 billion for high-yield. The former highs for the month of August were 2016 s $121 billion for investment-grade and 2012 s $33 billion for high-yield. The new bond issues of August frequently refinanced outstanding loan and bond debt. Thus, it is a mistake to equate August bond issuance with a nearly equivalent increase in the amount of corporate debt outstanding. In fact, recent corporate bond issuance often has enhanced corporate credit quality by lowering interest expense and lengthening maturities. In all likelihood, the latest surge in corporate bond issuance will not increase interest expense by enough to rein in future spending by U.S. companies. The National Income Product Accounts provide a rough estimate of net interest expense for U.S. corporations. According to this proxy, the net interest and miscellaneous payments of U.S. nonfinancial companies rose by merely 2.8% from a year earlier in 2020 s second quarter mostly because of a jump in debt that compensated for actual and potential shortfalls of cash flow. A subsequent slowing of corporate debt growth probably also pared the growth of net interest expense."/>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:581px;left:558px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">11.4%&#160;during&#160;2020’s&#160;final&#160;quarter.&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:596px;left:558px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">For 2019’s</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:596px;left:613px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">offerings&#160;of&#160;US$-denominated&#160;corporate&#160;bonds,&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:365px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft021"><i>Moody's&#160;Analytics/<location value="LU/us.ny.nyc" idsrc="xmltag.org" >New York</location>:&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:381px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft028"><person>John Lonski</person>&#160;<br/>Chief Economist&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:409px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft023"><PhoneNo>1.212.553</PhoneNo>.7144&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:423px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft024"><a href="mailto:john.lonski@moodys.com">john.lonski@moodys.com</a></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:423px;left:183px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft023">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:437px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft028">&#160;<br/>Yukyung Choi&#160;<br/>Quantitative&#160;Research&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:494px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft021"><i>Moody's&#160;Analytics/<location value="LR/asp" idsrc="xmltag.org" >Asia-Pacific</location>:&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:510px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft028"><person>Shahana Mukherjee</person>&#160;<br/>Economist&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:553px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft021"><i>Moody's&#160;Analytics/<location value="LR/eur" idsrc="xmltag.org" >Europe</location>:</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:554px;left:204px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:569px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft028"><person>Barbara Teixeira</person>&#160;Araujo&#160;<br/>Economist&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:612px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft021"><i>Moody’s&#160;Analytics/<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>:&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:628px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft023">Mark&#160;Zandi&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:641px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft023">Chief&#160;Economist&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:655px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft023">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:669px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft023">Steven&#160;Shields&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:682px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft023">Economist&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:696px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft023">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:718px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft019">Editor&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:734px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft028">Reid&#160;Kanaley&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:762px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft023">Contact<a href="mailto:help@economy.com">:&#160;</a></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:762px;left:104px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft024"><a href="mailto:help@economy.com"><a href="mailto:help@economy.com">help@economy.com</a></a></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:762px;left:202px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft023"><a href="mailto:help@economy.com">&#160;</a></p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:257px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:411px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1140px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:25px;left:686px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">2&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:67px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Credit Markets</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:159px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft030">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:163px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Review&#160;and&#160;Outlook&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:88px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft015">Credit Markets&#160;Review&#160;and Outlook&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:113px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">By&#160;<person>John Lonski</person>,&#160;Chief Economist,&#160;Moody’s&#160;Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research,&#160;Inc.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:132px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:150px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft031">Record&#160;August&#160;for&#160;Bond&#160;Issuance&#160;May&#160;Aid&#160;Credit&#160;Quality&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:178px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:196px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">In&#160;terms&#160;of&#160;US$-denominated&#160;supply,&#160;corporate&#160;bond&#160;issuance&#160;attained&#160;record&#160;highs&#160;for&#160;the month&#160;of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:214px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">August.&#160;More&#160;specifically,&#160;August&#160;2020’s&#160;corporate&#160;bond&#160;issuance&#160;rose&#160;to&#160;record&#160;highs&#160;of&#160;<money>$156&#160;billion</money>&#160;for&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:232px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">investment-grade&#160;and&#160;<money>$56&#160;billion</money>&#160;for&#160;high-yield.&#160;The&#160;former&#160;highs&#160;for&#160;the&#160;month of&#160;August&#160;were&#160;2016’s&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:250px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027"><money>$121&#160;billion</money>&#160;for&#160;investment-grade and&#160;2012’s&#160;<money>$33&#160;billion</money>&#160;for high-yield.&#160;<br/>The&#160;new&#160;bond&#160;issues&#160;of&#160;August&#160;frequently&#160;refinanced&#160;outstanding&#160;loan&#160;and&#160;bond&#160;debt.&#160;Thus,&#160;it&#160;is&#160;a&#160;mistake&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:296px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">to&#160;equate&#160;August&#160;bond&#160;issuance with&#160;a&#160;nearly&#160;equivalent increase&#160;in&#160;the&#160;amount of&#160;corporate debt&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:314px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">outstanding.&#160;In&#160;fact,&#160;recent corporate&#160;bond&#160;issuance&#160;often&#160;has&#160;enhanced&#160;corporate&#160;credit&#160;quality&#160;by&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:332px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">lowering interest&#160;expense and&#160;lengthening&#160;maturities.&#160;<br/>In&#160;all&#160;likelihood,&#160;the&#160;latest&#160;surge in&#160;corporate bond&#160;issuance&#160;will&#160;not increase&#160;interest&#160;expense&#160;by&#160;enough&#160;to&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:378px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">rein&#160;in&#160;future&#160;spending&#160;by&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;companies.&#160;The National&#160;Income&#160;Product&#160;Accounts&#160;provide a&#160;rough&#160;estimate&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:396px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">of&#160;net&#160;interest&#160;expense&#160;for&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;corporations.&#160;According&#160;to&#160;this&#160;proxy,&#160;the “net interest and&#160;miscellaneous&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:414px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">payments”&#160;of&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;nonfinancial&#160;companies&#160;rose&#160;by&#160;merely&#160;2.8%&#160;from&#160;a&#160;year earlier&#160;in&#160;2020’s&#160;second&#160;quarter&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:432px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">mostly&#160;because&#160;of&#160;a&#160;jump&#160;in&#160;debt&#160;that&#160;compensated&#160;for&#160;actual&#160;and&#160;potential&#160;shortfalls&#160;of&#160;cash&#160;flow.&#160;A&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:450px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">subsequent&#160;slowing&#160;of&#160;corporate&#160;debt growth probably&#160;also&#160;pared&#160;the growth&#160;of&#160;net&#160;interest expense.&#160;<br/>COVID-19’s&#160;rise in&#160;net&#160;interest expense&#160;seems&#160;more&#160;manageable compared&#160;to&#160;what transpired&#160;during the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:495px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Great&#160;Recession.&#160;Despite&#160;second-quarter 2009's&#160;25.7%&#160;yearly&#160;plunge&#160;by&#160;nonfinancial-corporate core pretax&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:513px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">profits,&#160;the&#160;accompanying&#160;26.1%&#160;ratio&#160;of&#160;net&#160;interest&#160;expense to&#160;core profits&#160;was&#160;well&#160;under its&#160;calendar-</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:531px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">year&#160;averages&#160;of&#160;37.6%&#160;for&#160;2008&#160;and&#160;40.2%&#160;of&#160;2009.&#160;During the&#160;Great Recession,&#160;the&#160;calendar-quarter&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:549px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">ratio&#160;peaked&#160;at&#160;the&#160;44.8%&#160;of&#160;2009's&#160;second&#160;quarter.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:587px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft032">Record&#160;August&#160;for&#160;Bond&#160;Offerings&#160;from&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;Companies&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:604px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Across&#160;all&#160;currencies,&#160;bond&#160;offerings&#160;from&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;corporations&#160;attained&#160;record-highs&#160;for&#160;August of&#160;<money>$119.2</money>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:622px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">billion for&#160;investment-grade&#160;and&#160;<money>$46.6&#160;billion</money>&#160;for&#160;high-yield.&#160;However,&#160;the&#160;blistering&#160;pace&#160;of&#160;bond&#160;issuance&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:640px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">overstated&#160;the&#160;overall&#160;pace&#160;of&#160;borrowing&#160;by&#160;high-yield&#160;companies.&#160;<br/>Though&#160;August&#160;2020’s&#160;<money>$25.7&#160;billion</money>&#160;of&#160;newly&#160;rated&#160;loans&#160;from&#160;high-yield&#160;issuers&#160;was up&#160;by&#160;5.1% from&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:686px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">relatively&#160;low&#160;tally&#160;of&#160;August&#160;2019,&#160;January-August&#160;2020’s&#160;30.8%&#160;year-over-year contraction&#160;by&#160;such&#160;newly&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:704px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">rated&#160;loans&#160;(to&#160;<money>$241&#160;billion</money>)&#160;differed&#160;considerably&#160;from&#160;the&#160;comparably&#160;measured&#160;94.1%&#160;surge by&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:722px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">corporate&#160;high-yield&#160;bond&#160;offerings&#160;(to&#160;<money>$278&#160;billion</money>).&#160;&#160;<br/>Calendar-year&#160;2020 is likely&#160;to&#160;be the&#160;first&#160;year&#160;since&#160;2009,&#160;where&#160;high-yield&#160;bond&#160;issuance&#160;from&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:768px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">companies&#160;exceeds&#160;newly&#160;rated&#160;loans&#160;from&#160;high-yield&#160;borrowers.&#160;In&#160;2009,&#160;which&#160;was&#160;split between&#160;the&#160;final&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:786px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">six&#160;months&#160;of&#160;the Great&#160;Recession&#160;and&#160;the&#160;first&#160;six-months&#160;of&#160;a&#160;record-long&#160;economic&#160;recovery,&#160;newly&#160;rated&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:804px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">high-yield&#160;loans&#160;sank&#160;by&#160;40%&#160;annually&#160;(to&#160;<money>$109&#160;billion</money>),&#160;while&#160;high-yield&#160;bond&#160;issuance&#160;rebounded&#160;by&#160;130%&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:822px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">annually&#160;(to&#160;<money>$151&#160;billion</money>).&#160;Perhaps&#160;2020&#160;will&#160;also&#160;be home&#160;to&#160;both&#160;a&#160;recession&#160;and&#160;the&#160;start of&#160;a&#160;new&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:840px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">long-lived&#160;business&#160;cycle&#160;upturn.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:877px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft032"><location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;stocks&#160;held&#160;up&#160;very&#160;well&#160;during&#160;COVID-19&#160;recession&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:894px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Political&#160;risks&#160;may&#160;help&#160;to&#160;explain&#160;the&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;equity&#160;market&#160;sell-off&#160;of&#160;Thursday,&#160;September&#160;3.&#160;After all,&#160;there&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:912px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">were&#160;no&#160;surprises&#160;related&#160;to&#160;corporate&#160;earnings&#160;or economic&#160;data&#160;that&#160;might&#160;otherwise&#160;warrant&#160;a&#160;very&#160;deep&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:930px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">3.8%&#160;daily&#160;plunge&#160;by&#160;the&#160;market value&#160;of&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;common&#160;equity.&#160;&#160;<br/>Supposedly,&#160;individual&#160;investors&#160;now&#160;pour&#160;more&#160;money&#160;into&#160;the&#160;stock market&#160;because&#160;stock&#160;dividend&#160;yields&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:976px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">exceed&#160;today’s&#160;paltry&#160;interest rates&#160;on&#160;savings&#160;deposits&#160;and&#160;money&#160;market&#160;funds.&#160;To&#160;the&#160;degree households&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:994px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">view&#160;equity&#160;investments&#160;as&#160;a&#160;substitute&#160;for&#160;interest-earning&#160;savings&#160;accounts,&#160;it becomes&#160;riskier for a&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1012px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">political&#160;candidate&#160;to&#160;propose&#160;tax&#160;hikes&#160;that&#160;might&#160;harm&#160;the equity&#160;market.&#160;&#160;<br/>Reason&#160;not to&#160;propose higher&#160;taxes&#160;on&#160;capital&#160;gains&#160;and&#160;corporate&#160;earnings&#160;extends&#160;beyond&#160;its&#160;possibly&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1058px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">harmful&#160;effect&#160;on&#160;financial&#160;markets.&#160;If&#160;nothing else,&#160;it&#160;is&#160;highly&#160;unusual&#160;to&#160;suggest&#160;tax&#160;hikes&#160;amid&#160;a&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1076px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">historically&#160;high unemployment rate.&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:257px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:411px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1140px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:25px;left:686px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">3&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:67px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Credit Markets</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:159px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft030">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:163px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Review&#160;and&#160;Outlook&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:87px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">From&#160;the perspective&#160;of&#160;the&#160;market&#160;value&#160;of&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;common&#160;equity,&#160;the&#160;COVID-19&#160;related&#160;slump&#160;by&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:105px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">share&#160;prices&#160;lacked&#160;the&#160;severity&#160;of&#160;each&#160;of&#160;the four&#160;previous&#160;recessions.&#160;And&#160;the&#160;COVID-19&#160;slide&#160;was&#160;very&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:123px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">brief&#160;according&#160;to&#160;both the&#160;recent 20%&#160;year-to-year&#160;increase&#160;by&#160;the market&#160;value&#160;of&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location> common&#160;stock&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:141px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">and&#160;its&#160;10%&#160;year-over-year&#160;average rise&#160;of&#160;the last&#160;13&#160;weeks.&#160;<br/>During the&#160;COVID-19&#160;recession,&#160;the year-over-year&#160;percent&#160;drop&#160;by&#160;the&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;equity&#160;market’s&#160;moving three-</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:187px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">month&#160;average&#160;bottomed&#160;at the 5%&#160;of&#160;the&#160;span-ended&#160;May.&#160;In&#160;stark&#160;contrast,&#160;the yearly&#160;percent&#160;decline&#160;by&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:205px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">the <location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;equity&#160;market’s&#160;moving three-month average&#160;incurred&#160;much&#160;deeper troughs&#160;of&#160;40%&#160;for the&#160;Great&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:223px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Recession&#160;(<chron>April&#160;2009),</chron>&#160;25%&#160;for the 2001&#160;recession&#160;(<chron>October 2001),</chron>&#160;13%&#160;for the&#160;1990-1991 recession&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:241px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">(<chron>November&#160;1990)</chron>&#160;and&#160;19%&#160;for the&#160;1981-1982 recession&#160;(<chron>August&#160;1982).</chron>&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:674px;left:864px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:698px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">&#160;<br/>Unlike previous&#160;recessions,&#160;the&#160;month-long&#160;average&#160;of&#160;the&#160;tech-heavy&#160;NASDAQ&#160;stock&#160;price&#160;index&#160;managed&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:744px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">to&#160;exceed&#160;its&#160;year earlier&#160;reading&#160;in&#160;each&#160;month of&#160;the&#160;COVID-19&#160;downturn.&#160;In&#160;terms&#160;of&#160;annual&#160;percent&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:762px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">changes,&#160;NASDAQ’s&#160;“worst”&#160;month&#160;of&#160;the latest&#160;recession&#160;was&#160;the 2%&#160;yearly&#160;rise&#160;of&#160;March 2020.&#160;In&#160;stark&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:780px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">contrast,&#160;NASDAQ’s&#160;deepest&#160;yearly&#160;contraction&#160;of&#160;the&#160;Great&#160;Recession&#160;was&#160;the&#160;43%&#160;decline&#160;of&#160;December&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:798px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">2008.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:657px;left:839px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:388px;left:839px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:670px;left:257px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Mar-81</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:670px;left:297px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Jan-84&#160;Nov-86&#160;Sep-89</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:670px;left:418px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Jul-92</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:670px;left:454px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">May-95&#160;Mar-98&#160;Jan-01&#160;Nov-03&#160;Sep-06</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:670px;left:655px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Jul-09&#160;May-12&#160;Mar-15</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:670px;left:774px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Jan-18&#160;Dec-20</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:657px;left:231px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">-45%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:634px;left:231px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">-36%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:611px;left:232px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">-27%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:588px;left:233px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">-18%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:565px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">-9%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:542px;left:242px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">0%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:519px;left:242px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">9%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:496px;left:237px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">18%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:472px;left:237px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">27%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:449px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">36%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:426px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">45%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:403px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">54%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:355px;left:353px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft036">Recessions are&#160;shaded<br/>Market&#160;Value&#160;of&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;Common&#160;Stock:&#160;yy&#160;%&#160;change&#160;of&#160;moving&#160;3-month&#160;avg&#160;(Wilshire&#160;index)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:299px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft034"><b>Figure&#160;1:&#160;Market&#160;Value&#160;of&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;Common&#160;Stock&#160;Fared&#160;Significantly&#160;Worse&#160;In&#160;Each&#160;of&#160;the&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:316px;left:290px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft034"><b>Four&#160;Previous&#160;Recessions&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:333px;left:290px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft035"><i>sources:&#160;<org>Dow&#160;Jones</org>,&#160;NBER,&#160;Moody's&#160;Analytics</i></p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:257px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:411px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1140px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:25px;left:686px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">4&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:67px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Credit Markets</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:159px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft030">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:163px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Review&#160;and&#160;Outlook&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:439px;left:858px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:472px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft032">High&#160;Tech&#160;Giants&#160;Supply&#160;Nearly&#160;21%&#160;of&#160;Market&#160;Value&#160;of&#160;All&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;Common&#160;Stock&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:490px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Technology&#160;shares&#160;dominate&#160;the NASDAQ&#160;composite.&#160;Prior&#160;to&#160;Thursday’s&#160;sell-off,&#160;the estimated&#160;market&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:508px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">value&#160;of&#160;all&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;common&#160;stock was&#160;recently&#160;up&#160;by&#160;22.5%&#160;from&#160;its&#160;year&#160;earlier reading.&#160;However,&#160;the&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:526px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">equity&#160;market’s&#160;year-to-year&#160;increase&#160;eases&#160;to&#160;a&#160;still&#160;admirable 11.7%&#160;after excluding the estimated&#160;89.6%&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:544px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">yearly&#160;surge&#160;in&#160;the market&#160;value&#160;of&#160;the&#160;five&#160;most highly&#160;valued&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;corporations.&#160;<br/>The recent <money>$7.8&#160;trillion</money>&#160;total&#160;market&#160;value&#160;of&#160;these&#160;five high-tech&#160;giants&#160;approximates&#160;21%&#160;of&#160;the&#160;estimated&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:589px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">market&#160;value&#160;of&#160;all&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;common&#160;stock,&#160;which&#160;was&#160;up&#160;from&#160;the 14%&#160;ratio&#160;of&#160;a&#160;year earlier.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:627px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft032">Share Prices&#160;of&#160;Smaller&#160;Companies&#160;Fare&#160;Better&#160;Compared&#160;to&#160;Great&#160;Recession&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:644px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Though&#160;the&#160;Russell&#160;2000&#160;stock price&#160;index&#160;for small&#160;to&#160;mid-sized&#160;companies&#160;has&#160;significantly&#160;lagged&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:662px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">overall&#160;market,&#160;its&#160;COVID-19&#160;performance&#160;also&#160;compared&#160;favorably&#160;with previous&#160;recessions,&#160;except&#160;for&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:680px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">1990-1991&#160;slump.&#160;The&#160;yearly&#160;percent&#160;drop&#160;of&#160;the&#160;Russell&#160;2000’s&#160;month-long&#160;average&#160;most recently&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:698px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">bottomed&#160;at&#160;April&#160;2020’s&#160;23.6%,&#160;or&#160;when&#160;the overall&#160;market sank&#160;7.7%.&#160;By&#160;August,&#160;the&#160;Russell&#160;2000’s&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:716px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">average&#160;was&#160;up&#160;3.0%&#160;yearly,&#160;but that&#160;still&#160;trailed&#160;the <location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;equity&#160;market’s&#160;accompanying&#160;16.8%&#160;advance.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1084px;left:848px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:423px;left:846px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:163px;left:846px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:436px;left:255px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Mar-81&#160;Jan-84&#160;Nov-86&#160;Sep-89&#160;Jul-92&#160;May-95&#160;Mar-98&#160;Jan-01&#160;Nov-03&#160;Sep-06&#160;Jul-09&#160;May-12&#160;Mar-15&#160;Jan-18&#160;Dec-20</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:423px;left:231px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">-60%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:406px;left:232px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">-50%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:388px;left:231px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">-40%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:371px;left:231px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">-30%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:354px;left:232px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">-20%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:336px;left:233px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">-10%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:319px;left:242px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:302px;left:237px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">10%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:284px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">20%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:267px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">30%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:250px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">40%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:232px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">50%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:215px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">60%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:198px;left:237px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">70%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:180px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">80%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:163px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">90%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:149px;left:346px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Recessions are&#160;shaded</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:149px;left:506px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">NASDAQ&#160;Composite:&#160;yy&#160;%&#160;change&#160;of moving&#160;3-month&#160;avg</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:89px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft037"><b>Figure&#160;2:&#160;NASDAQ&#160;Composite's&#160;Moving&#160;Three-Month&#160;Average Never&#160;Declined&#160;from</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:105px;left:290px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft037"><b>Year Earlier During&#160;COVID-19 Recession&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:121px;left:294px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft038"><i>sources:&#160;<org>Dow&#160;Jones</org>,&#160;NBER,&#160;Moody's&#160;Analytics</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1070px;left:837px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:820px;left:837px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1083px;left:254px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Nov-88&#160;Nov-90&#160;Nov-92&#160;Nov-94&#160;Nov-96&#160;Nov-98&#160;Nov-00&#160;Nov-02&#160;Nov-04&#160;Nov-06&#160;Nov-08&#160;Nov-10&#160;Nov-12&#160;Nov-14&#160;Nov-16&#160;Nov-18&#160;Dec-20</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1070px;left:231px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-45%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1048px;left:231px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-36%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1027px;left:232px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-27%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1006px;left:233px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-18%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:984px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-9%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:963px;left:242px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">0%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:941px;left:242px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">9%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:920px;left:237px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">18%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:899px;left:237px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">27%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:877px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">36%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:856px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">45%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:834px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">54%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:797px;left:332px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft039">Recessions are&#160;shaded<br/>Russell&#160;2000&#160;Stock&#160;Price Index&#160;for&#160;Smaller&#160;Companies:&#160;yy&#160;%&#160;change of&#160;moving&#160;3-month&#160;avg</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft037"><b>Figure&#160;3:&#160;Even&#160;the&#160;Russell 2000&#160;&#160;Stock&#160;Price&#160;Index&#160;for&#160;Smaller&#160;Companies&#160;Held&#160;Up&#160;Relatively&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:761px;left:289px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft037"><b>Well&#160;Compared&#160;to&#160;Previous&#160;Recessions</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:777px;left:289px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft038"><i>sources:&#160;<org>Dow&#160;Jones</org>,&#160;NBER,&#160;Moody's&#160;Analytics</i></p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:257px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:411px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1140px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:25px;left:686px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">5&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:67px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Credit Markets</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:159px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft030">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:58px;left:163px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Review&#160;and&#160;Outlook&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:87px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft032">Long&#160;Stay by Ultra-Low&#160;Fed&#160;Funds&#160;Favors&#160;Lower&#160;Default&#160;Rate&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:104px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">The KBW&#160;stock&#160;price&#160;index&#160;for&#160;banks&#160;has&#160;been&#160;one&#160;of&#160;the&#160;worst performing&#160;specialty&#160;indices.&#160;In&#160;August,&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:122px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">KBW&#160;index&#160;was&#160;down&#160;17.0%&#160;from&#160;a&#160;year&#160;earlier,&#160;but&#160;at&#160;least&#160;that&#160;was&#160;an&#160;improvement&#160;compared&#160;to&#160;its&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:140px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">average&#160;year-over-year plunge&#160;of&#160;nearly&#160;27%&#160;during March-<chron>July&#160;2020.</chron>&#160;<br/>The weakness&#160;of&#160;bank&#160;share prices&#160;can&#160;be&#160;partly&#160;ascribed&#160;to&#160;expectations&#160;of&#160;relatively&#160;high&#160;delinquency&#160;rates&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:186px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">for&#160;consumer&#160;and&#160;business&#160;loans.&#160;The&#160;outlook&#160;for&#160;high-yield&#160;defaults&#160;complements&#160;worry&#160;over&#160;the&#160;quality&#160;of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:204px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">business loans.&#160;As&#160;of&#160;early&#160;August,&#160;default researchers&#160;at&#160;Moody’s&#160;Investors&#160;Service&#160;had&#160;the&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;high-yield&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:222px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">default&#160;rate&#160;rising&#160;from&#160;July&#160;2020’s 8.4%&#160;to&#160;a&#160;baseline-estimate&#160;high&#160;of&#160;12.1%&#160;by&#160;February&#160;2021,&#160;but then&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:240px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">easing&#160;to&#160;9.4%&#160;by&#160;July&#160;2021.&#160;<br/>More&#160;firmly&#160;held&#160;expectations&#160;of&#160;an&#160;extended&#160;stay&#160;by&#160;an&#160;ultra-low&#160;federal&#160;funds&#160;rate&#160;favor&#160;a&#160;declining&#160;trend&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:286px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">for&#160;the&#160;default&#160;rate.&#160;<br/>The federal&#160;funds&#160;rate&#160;first&#160;declined&#160;to&#160;0.125%&#160;in&#160;December&#160;2008&#160;and&#160;remained&#160;at&#160;0.125%&#160;through&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:331px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07"><chron>November&#160;2015.</chron>&#160;During that&#160;span,&#160;the&#160;average and&#160;median&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;high-yield default&#160;rates&#160;of&#160;12&#160;months&#160;later&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:349px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">were 3.8%&#160;and&#160;2.9%,&#160;respectively.&#160;(In&#160;other&#160;words,&#160;the referenced&#160;default&#160;rates&#160;began&#160;in&#160;December 2009&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:367px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">and ended&#160;in <chron>November&#160;2016.)</chron>&#160;<br/>The average&#160;and&#160;median&#160;12-month changes&#160;in&#160;the&#160;default&#160;rate starting&#160;in&#160;December 2009&#160;and&#160;ending&#160;in&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:413px;left:230px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027"><chron>November&#160;2016</chron>&#160;were&#160;-0.8 and&#160;-0.4&#160;percentage points,&#160;respectively.&#160;<br/>During the&#160;7-years-long&#160;stay&#160;by&#160;a&#160;0.125%&#160;fed funds&#160;rate,&#160;the&#160;high-yield&#160;default&#160;rate&#160;eventually&#160;sank&#160;from&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:459px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">November&#160;2009’s&#160;post-Depression&#160;high&#160;of&#160;14.7%&#160;to&#160;September 2014’s&#160;cycle low&#160;of&#160;1.6%.&#160;At the time&#160;of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:477px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">December 2015’s&#160;first&#160;of&#160;nine&#160;consecutive rate hikes,&#160;the&#160;default rate&#160;had&#160;climbed&#160;to&#160;3.35%.&#160;The&#160;wisdom&#160;of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:495px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">having&#160;hiked&#160;fed&#160;funds&#160;amid 2015-2016’s&#160;profits&#160;recession and&#160;a&#160;rising&#160;default&#160;rate&#160;invites&#160;scrutiny.&#160;<br/>The default rates&#160;following&#160;from&#160;the&#160;seven-year-long&#160;stay&#160;by&#160;a&#160;0.125%&#160;fed&#160;funds&#160;rate were on&#160;the&#160;low&#160;side&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:541px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">compared&#160;to&#160;the historical&#160;record.&#160;As&#160;derived&#160;from&#160;a&#160;history&#160;beginning&#160;in&#160;December&#160;1983 and&#160;ending&#160;in&#160;July&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:559px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">2020,&#160;the&#160;average&#160;and&#160;median&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;high-yield&#160;default&#160;rates&#160;were&#160;4.6%&#160;and&#160;3.7%,&#160;respectively.&#160;Moreover,&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:577px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">the&#160;average&#160;and&#160;median&#160;changes&#160;by&#160;the&#160;default rate&#160;over&#160;12-month&#160;spans&#160;beginning in&#160;December 1983&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:595px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">ending&#160;in&#160;July&#160;2020&#160;were&#160;0.0&#160;and&#160;-0.2&#160;of&#160;a&#160;percentage&#160;point,&#160;respectively.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:999px;left:862px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1023px;left:229px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:982px;left:834px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">100</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:259px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Jan-07</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:301px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Mar-08</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:345px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">May-09</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:393px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Jul-10</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:436px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Sep-11</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:478px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Nov-12</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Jan-14</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:567px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Mar-15</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:611px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">May-16</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:659px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Jul-17</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:700px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Sep-18</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:743px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Nov-19</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:995px;left:790px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Jan-21</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:982px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">0.00</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:961px;left:239px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">1.25</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:939px;left:237px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">2.50</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:918px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">3.75</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:897px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">5.00</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:875px;left:237px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">6.25</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:854px;left:237px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">7.50</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:833px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">8.75</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:811px;left:231px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">10.00</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:790px;left:234px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">11.25</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:769px;left:232px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">12.50</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:748px;left:233px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">13.75</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:726px;left:231px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">15.00</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:680px;left:399px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft040">Recessions are&#160;shaded<br/><location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;High-Yield&#160;Default&#160;Rate:&#160;%,&#160;actual&#160;&amp;&#160;baseline&#160;estimate<br/>Federal&#160;Funds&#160;Rate:&#160;%,&#160;actual&#160;&amp;&#160;predicted</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:625px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft034"><b>Figure&#160;4:&#160;Long&#160;Stay&#160;by&#160;0.125%&#160;Fed&#160;Funds&#160;Rate&#160;May&#160;Help&#160;Lower&#160;<location value="LC/us" idsrc="xmltag.org" >U.S.</location>&#160;High-Yield&#160;Default&#160;Rate&#160;from&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:642px;left:290px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft034"><b>July's&#160;8.4%&#160;to&#160;Something&#160;Less&#160;than&#160;3.5%</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:659px;left:290px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft035"><i>sources:&#160;<org>Federal&#160;Reserve</org>,&#160;NBER,&#160;Moody's&#160;Investors&#160;Service,&#160;Moody’s&#160;Analytics</i></p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:57px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">The&#160;Week&#160;Ahead&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:395px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:410px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:441px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:471px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:525px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">6&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:88px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft015">The&#160;Week Ahead&#160;–&#160;U.S.,&#160;Europe, Asia-Pacific&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:132px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft032">THE&#160;U.S.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:151px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">By&#160;Mark&#160;Zandi&#160;of&#160;Moody’s&#160;Analytics&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:187px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft041">Fed&#160;Acts,&#160;Administration&#160;and&#160;Congress Dither&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:232px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">We&#160;get&#160;our&#160;first&#160;significant&#160;read&#160;on how&#160;the&#160;economy&#160;performed&#160;in August&#160;when&#160;job&#160;numbers&#160;come&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:251px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">out&#160;Friday&#160;from&#160;the&#160;Bureau&#160;of&#160;Labor&#160;Statistics. Employment&#160;probably&#160;grew&#160;by&#160;close&#160;to&#160;800,000&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:269px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">jobs,&#160;about&#160;one-fourth&#160;of&#160;them as&#160;temporary&#160;hires&#160;for&#160;the 2020&#160;census.&#160;Callbacks&#160;of&#160;furloughed&#160;<br/>workers&#160;at restaurants,&#160;retailers&#160;and&#160;temp&#160;businesses&#160;will&#160;account&#160;for&#160;the&#160;bulk&#160;of&#160;the rest&#160;of&#160;the&#160;job&#160;<br/>gains.&#160;If we&#160;are&#160;roughly&#160;correct,&#160;employment&#160;will&#160;remain&#160;down about&#160;12&#160;million&#160;from&#160;its&#160;pre-</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:326px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">pandemic&#160;peak,&#160;and the&#160;pace&#160;of&#160;recovery&#160;will&#160;have&#160;slowed&#160;sharply—employment&#160;rose&#160;4.8&#160;million&#160;in&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:345px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">June&#160;and 1.8&#160;million&#160;in&#160;July.&#160;Worse,&#160;job&#160;growth&#160;appears&#160;set&#160;to come&#160;near&#160;a&#160;standstill&#160;in September,&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:363px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">aside&#160;from&#160;some&#160;additional&#160;census&#160;hiring,&#160;as&#160;the&#160;fallout&#160;from&#160;fading&#160;fiscal&#160;support&#160;becomes&#160;evident.&#160;<br/>We expect unemployment&#160;to&#160;remain&#160;near&#160;10%&#160;in&#160;August&#160;after&#160;accounting&#160;for&#160;measurement&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:401px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">problems&#160;acknowledged&#160;by&#160;the BLS.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:420px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:439px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">While&#160;the&#160;economy&#160;has&#160;recovered significantly&#160;from&#160;its&#160;April&#160;depths,&#160;when&#160;nonessential&#160;businesses&#160;<br/>in&#160;much&#160;of the&#160;country&#160;were&#160;shut&#160;down&#160;and&#160;most&#160;of&#160;us&#160;were&#160;sheltering&#160;in place,&#160;it&#160;has&#160;a&#160;long&#160;way&#160;to&#160;<br/>go&#160;to&#160;get where it was&#160;prior&#160;to&#160;the pandemic.&#160;Just how&#160;far&#160;is&#160;captured&#160;by&#160;the&#160;daily&#160;Back-to-Normal&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:495px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Index that we&#160;constructed&#160;in&#160;partnership&#160;with CNN&#160;Business.&#160;Normal&#160;is&#160;defined&#160;as&#160;where the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:514px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">economy&#160;stood prior&#160;to&#160;the&#160;pandemic.&#160;As&#160;of&#160;Friday,&#160;the&#160;index&#160;stood&#160;at&#160;less&#160;than 80%.&#160;Economic&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:533px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">activity&#160;nationwide&#160;is&#160;thus&#160;still&#160;down&#160;by&#160;more&#160;than&#160;one-fifth&#160;from&#160;its&#160;pre-pandemic&#160;level.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:701px;left:751px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:869px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">The Back-to-Normal&#160;Index&#160;goes&#160;beyond typical&#160;measures&#160;used to&#160;judge&#160;how&#160;an&#160;economy&#160;is&#160;doing—</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:887px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">such&#160;as&#160;GDP,&#160;employment and&#160;unemployment—to&#160;provide&#160;a more&#160;realistic&#160;understanding&#160;of&#160;how&#160;<br/>businesses&#160;and&#160;consumers&#160;are&#160;responding&#160;to&#160;the&#160;pandemic.&#160;It&#160;combines&#160;traditional&#160;government&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:925px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">statistics&#160;with&#160;metrics&#160;from&#160;a host&#160;of&#160;private&#160;firms&#160;to capture&#160;economic&#160;trends&#160;nationally&#160;and across&#160;<br/>states&#160;in&#160;real&#160;time.&#160;The statistics&#160;cover&#160;retail&#160;sales,&#160;industrial&#160;production,&#160;durable&#160;goods&#160;orders,&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:963px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">housing&#160;starts,&#160;to name&#160;a&#160;few&#160;datapoints.&#160;Private&#160;contributors&#160;to&#160;the&#160;index&#160;include&#160;Zillow&#160;for&#160;home&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:981px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">listings,&#160;OpenTable&#160;for&#160;restaurant&#160;bookings,&#160;Homebase&#160;for&#160;its&#160;measures&#160;of&#160;hours&#160;worked&#160;at&#160;small&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1000px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">businesses,&#160;the&#160;Mortgage&#160;Bankers&#160;Association for&#160;data&#160;on applications&#160;for&#160;mortgage&#160;loans,&#160;the&#160;<br/>American Association&#160;of Railroads&#160;for&#160;rail&#160;traffic,&#160;and Google,&#160;whose&#160;cellphone-based&#160;mobility&#160;data&#160;<br/>are&#160;a&#160;window&#160;on&#160;how&#160;actively&#160;people&#160;are&#160;shopping,&#160;going&#160;to work,&#160;and venturing&#160;out&#160;to&#160;play.&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:502px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:525px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">7&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:268px;left:803px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:467px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">For&#160;context,&#160;the Back-to-Normal&#160;Index&#160;hit&#160;its&#160;nadir&#160;of&#160;just&#160;59%&#160;on <chron>April&#160;17</chron>&#160;and rallied&#160;from&#160;mid-</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:485px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">April&#160;to mid-June&#160;as&#160;businesses&#160;reopened.&#160;However,&#160;it&#160;is&#160;clear&#160;that&#160;they&#160;opened&#160;too&#160;quickly&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:504px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">reignited&#160;the virus,&#160;leaving&#160;the economy&#160;to&#160;drift&#160;more-or-less&#160;sideways&#160;ever&#160;since.&#160;It&#160;is&#160;not&#160;difficult&#160;<br/>to&#160;connect&#160;the dots&#160;between&#160;the pandemic&#160;and&#160;the&#160;economy’s&#160;performance.&#160;Some states&#160;had&#160;to&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:542px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">backtrack on&#160;reopenings,&#160;and&#160;businesses&#160;and&#160;households&#160;everywhere have turned&#160;more&#160;skittish.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:710px;left:751px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:878px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">State-by-state&#160;Back-to-Normal&#160;Indexes&#160;provide&#160;further&#160;insights&#160;into what&#160;the&#160;pandemic&#160;is&#160;doing&#160;to&#160;<br/>the&#160;economy.&#160;The broad,&#160;densely&#160;populated&#160;New&#160;York&#160;City&#160;area&#160;was&#160;hit&#160;first and&#160;hard.&#160;At&#160;the&#160;low&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:915px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">point&#160;in that&#160;region’s&#160;economy&#160;in mid-April,&#160;it&#160;was&#160;operating&#160;at&#160;near&#160;half&#160;of normal.&#160;Especially&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:934px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">stringent shelter-in-place&#160;rules&#160;were&#160;in&#160;effect.&#160;And they&#160;worked.&#160;Infection rates&#160;in the&#160;region are&#160;now&#160;<br/>among&#160;the lowest and&#160;most stable in&#160;the&#160;country,&#160;and&#160;the regional&#160;economy&#160;has&#160;come back.&#160;New&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:972px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">York&#160;state’s&#160;economy&#160;is&#160;still&#160;operating&#160;somewhat below&#160;the rest&#160;of&#160;the nation,&#160;but&#160;New&#160;Jersey’s&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:991px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">economy&#160;is&#160;on&#160;par&#160;with it,&#160;and&#160;Connecticut’s&#160;economy&#160;is&#160;doing&#160;even&#160;better.&#160;Other&#160;states&#160;that&#160;locked&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1009px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">down&#160;hard&#160;early&#160;on&#160;but&#160;are&#160;now&#160;enjoying&#160;lower&#160;infection&#160;rates&#160;and&#160;stronger&#160;economies&#160;include&#160;<br/>Illinois,&#160;Michigan,&#160;New&#160;Hampshire,&#160;Rhode&#160;Island&#160;and&#160;Washington state.&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:57px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">The&#160;Week&#160;Ahead&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:75px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:105px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:212px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:288px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:303px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:349px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:380px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:395px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:410px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:441px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:471px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:486px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:502px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:525px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">8&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:237px;left:751px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:405px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">States&#160;that were quicker&#160;to&#160;end&#160;shelter-in-place&#160;rules&#160;and reopen in&#160;the&#160;spring&#160;have&#160;paid&#160;an&#160;<br/>economic&#160;price.&#160;Back-to-Normal&#160;Indexes&#160;for&#160;Arizona,&#160;Florida,&#160;South&#160;Carolina&#160;and&#160;Texas&#160;indicate&#160;that&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:442px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">their&#160;economies&#160;effectively&#160;flatlined from&#160;early&#160;June.&#160;The&#160;New&#160;York&#160;state&#160;and&#160;Texas&#160;economies&#160;are&#160;<br/>now&#160;about&#160;as&#160;equally&#160;far—down&#160;more&#160;than&#160;25&#160;points—from&#160;normal.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:480px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:499px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">Less&#160;urbanized&#160;farm&#160;belt&#160;and&#160;northern Rocky&#160;Mountain&#160;economies&#160;are&#160;faring&#160;best,&#160;according&#160;to&#160;the&#160;<br/>Back-to-Normal&#160;Index.&#160;South Dakota&#160;has&#160;the highest index in&#160;the&#160;country&#160;at 93%,&#160;although this&#160;is&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:536px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">down&#160;somewhat&#160;from&#160;a&#160;couple&#160;of weeks&#160;ago.&#160;States&#160;including&#160;Idaho,&#160;Montana,&#160;Nebraska,&#160;Wisconsin&#160;<br/>and&#160;Wyoming&#160;are&#160;not&#160;too&#160;far&#160;behind.&#160;Of&#160;course,&#160;this&#160;isn’t&#160;a&#160;green&#160;light for&#160;these&#160;states&#160;to&#160;let&#160;down&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:574px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">their&#160;guard against&#160;the&#160;virus.&#160;It&#160;is&#160;clear&#160;the&#160;pandemic&#160;can strike&#160;fast&#160;and hard anywhere&#160;and take&#160;the&#160;<br/>economy&#160;with&#160;it.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:611px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">&#160;<br/>The&#160;Back-to-Normal&#160;Index&#160;is&#160;sobering;&#160;it&#160;suggests&#160;the&#160;economy&#160;has&#160;a&#160;long&#160;way&#160;to go to&#160;fully&#160;recover&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:649px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">and&#160;isn’t&#160;getting&#160;there&#160;very&#160;fast.&#160;The Federal&#160;Reserve Board&#160;appears&#160;to&#160;be&#160;taking&#160;a&#160;similar&#160;view&#160;of&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:668px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">economy’s&#160;prospects.&#160;The&#160;Fed&#160;last&#160;week&#160;announced&#160;a&#160;big&#160;change&#160;to&#160;the way&#160;it&#160;sets&#160;interest rates.&#160;<br/>The&#160;upshot&#160;is&#160;that rates&#160;are unlikely&#160;to&#160;rise&#160;next&#160;year&#160;and maybe&#160;not&#160;before&#160;mid-decade.&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:724px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">The&#160;Fed&#160;sets&#160;interest&#160;rates&#160;aimed&#160;at achieving&#160;the&#160;dual&#160;goal&#160;of&#160;full&#160;employment&#160;and&#160;stable&#160;and&#160;low&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:743px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">inflation.&#160;Before&#160;last&#160;week&#160;that&#160;meant&#160;a low&#160;unemployment&#160;rate&#160;and a&#160;2%&#160;inflation&#160;rate.&#160;If&#160;<br/>unemployment&#160;got&#160;too&#160;low&#160;and&#160;inflation rose&#160;above&#160;the&#160;Fed’s&#160;2%&#160;target,&#160;the&#160;central&#160;bank&#160;would&#160;<br/>promptly&#160;raise&#160;interest&#160;rates.&#160;Not&#160;anymore.&#160;The&#160;Fed announced&#160;that&#160;it&#160;will&#160;no&#160;longer&#160;treat&#160;2%&#160;<br/>inflation&#160;as&#160;an&#160;effective&#160;ceiling&#160;but&#160;will&#160;aim&#160;to&#160;set&#160;rates&#160;so&#160;that&#160;inflation&#160;averages&#160;2%&#160;over&#160;the&#160;<br/>business&#160;cycle.&#160;This&#160;means&#160;that&#160;if inflation&#160;falls&#160;below&#160;2%&#160;for&#160;any&#160;length&#160;of&#160;time,&#160;the&#160;Fed&#160;will&#160;use&#160;its&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:837px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">rate-setting&#160;power&#160;to nudge&#160;inflation above&#160;2%&#160;for&#160;as&#160;long&#160;as&#160;needed&#160;to&#160;maintain&#160;the&#160;average.&#160;Since&#160;<br/>inflation has&#160;run below&#160;2%,&#160;more&#160;or&#160;less,&#160;since&#160;the&#160;financial&#160;crisis,&#160;this&#160;suggests&#160;the&#160;Fed&#160;will&#160;allow&#160;for&#160;<br/>lower&#160;interest&#160;rates&#160;for&#160;longer.&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:912px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">This&#160;change&#160;in&#160;the&#160;monetary&#160;policy&#160;framework&#160;makes&#160;a lot&#160;of&#160;sense.&#160;If&#160;the&#160;Fed’s&#160;2%&#160;target&#160;is&#160;a&#160;<br/>ceiling,&#160;then&#160;there will&#160;be&#160;periods—most&#160;likely&#160;during&#160;recessions—when&#160;inflation&#160;falls&#160;below&#160;2%.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:950px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">With&#160;investors&#160;and consumers&#160;anticipating&#160;just&#160;such&#160;a move,&#160;long-run&#160;inflation expectations&#160;then&#160;<br/>fall&#160;below&#160;2%,&#160;eventually&#160;dragging&#160;actual&#160;inflation&#160;below&#160;the&#160;Fed target.&#160;Moreover,&#160;with&#160;the&#160;neutral&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:987px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">real&#160;interest&#160;rate&#160;(“r-star”&#160;in Fed parlance)&#160;and&#160;inflation&#160;so&#160;low&#160;since&#160;the&#160;financial&#160;crisis,&#160;odds&#160;are&#160;high&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1006px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">that&#160;the Fed&#160;will&#160;hit the&#160;zero&#160;lower&#160;bound&#160;during&#160;a&#160;recession.&#160;Now,&#160;under&#160;the&#160;Fed’s&#160;new&#160;framework,&#160;<br/>those&#160;odds&#160;won’t&#160;be&#160;quite&#160;as&#160;high.&#160;<br/>&#160;<br/>The Fed&#160;also&#160;made&#160;clear&#160;that&#160;it&#160;believes&#160;the job&#160;market can&#160;remain&#160;tighter&#160;for&#160;longer&#160;before&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1081px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">engendering&#160;significant&#160;inflationary&#160;pressures.&#160;It&#160;learned this&#160;lesson&#160;in&#160;the&#160;last&#160;expansion,&#160;when&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:57px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">The&#160;Week&#160;Ahead&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:75px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:181px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:197px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:212px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:273px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:288px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:303px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:334px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:349px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:380px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:395px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:410px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:441px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:471px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:486px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:502px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:525px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">9&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:88px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">unemployment&#160;fell&#160;to&#160;a&#160;60-year&#160;low&#160;of&#160;3.5%,&#160;yet inflation&#160;remained&#160;below&#160;the Fed&#160;target.&#160;With&#160;<br/>prospects&#160;that it will&#160;take years&#160;to&#160;significantly&#160;reduce&#160;the&#160;currently&#160;high joblessness,&#160;this&#160;also&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:125px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">suggests&#160;that the Fed&#160;will&#160;keep&#160;rates&#160;low&#160;for&#160;a&#160;long&#160;time.&#160;In&#160;our&#160;forecast,&#160;the economy&#160;doesn’t&#160;return&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:144px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">to&#160;full&#160;employment&#160;until&#160;late 2023,&#160;which suggests&#160;that accurate&#160;short-term&#160;rates&#160;will&#160;be near&#160;zero&#160;<br/>for&#160;another&#160;three&#160;years.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:181px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:200px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">It&#160;is&#160;important&#160;to&#160;note&#160;that&#160;in&#160;its&#160;framework&#160;the&#160;Fed did not&#160;adopt&#160;yield curve&#160;management,&#160;in&#160;<br/>which&#160;it&#160;would&#160;purchase&#160;intermediate&#160;and&#160;potentially&#160;longer-term&#160;bonds&#160;to hold&#160;down longer-term&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:238px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">rates. While&#160;long-term&#160;rates&#160;are&#160;influenced&#160;by&#160;short-term&#160;rates&#160;and Fed&#160;policy,&#160;they&#160;are&#160;also&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:257px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">influenced by&#160;factors&#160;not&#160;controlled&#160;by&#160;the&#160;Fed.&#160;So while&#160;short-term&#160;rates&#160;may&#160;remain low&#160;for&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:275px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">several&#160;years,&#160;it&#160;is&#160;likely&#160;that long-term&#160;rates&#160;will&#160;rise sooner.&#160;Given&#160;the&#160;prospects&#160;for&#160;large&#160;federal&#160;<br/>government&#160;deficits,&#160;borrowing&#160;by&#160;the&#160;Treasury&#160;will&#160;be&#160;strong&#160;for&#160;the&#160;foreseeable&#160;future&#160;and&#160;<br/>ultimately&#160;put&#160;upward&#160;pressure&#160;on longer-term&#160;rates.&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:351px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">While&#160;the&#160;Trump&#160;administration and&#160;Congress&#160;dither&#160;over&#160;another&#160;fiscal&#160;rescue&#160;package,&#160;the Fed&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:369px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">continues&#160;to&#160;act.&#160;Central&#160;bankers&#160;understand that,&#160;with&#160;the&#160;pandemic&#160;still&#160;raging&#160;and&#160;Americans'&#160;<br/>financial&#160;lives&#160;being&#160;torn apart&#160;by&#160;double-digit&#160;unemployment&#160;and&#160;millions&#160;of layoffs&#160;each&#160;week,&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:407px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">they&#160;cannot&#160;stand to&#160;the&#160;side.&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:57px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">The&#160;Week&#160;Ahead&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:525px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">10&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:92px;left:846px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:106px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft032">EUROPE&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:125px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">By&#160;Barbara&#160;Teixeira Araujo&#160;of&#160;Moody’s&#160;Analytics&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:144px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:162px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft041">More&#160;Stimulus&#160;From&#160;the&#160;ECB,&#160;but When?&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:186px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:204px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">The European&#160;Central&#160;Bank’s&#160;September&#160;meeting&#160;on&#160;Thursday&#160;will&#160;highlight the&#160;busy&#160;week ahead.&#160;The&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:222px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">consensus&#160;seems&#160;divided&#160;on&#160;what&#160;the&#160;ECB&#160;will&#160;(or&#160;won’t)&#160;do.&#160;Moody’s&#160;Analytics&#160;is&#160;on&#160;the&#160;“stand pat”&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:240px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">team.&#160;We think the&#160;central&#160;bank&#160;will&#160;want&#160;to&#160;wait for&#160;more&#160;third-quarter&#160;data&#160;before&#160;announcing&#160;a&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">further&#160;wave of&#160;stimulus.&#160;Recent&#160;economic&#160;releases&#160;have&#160;been&#160;mixed&#160;but overall&#160;have confirmed&#160;our&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:276px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">expectations&#160;that&#160;the&#160;euro zone&#160;economies&#160;rebounded sharply&#160;following&#160;the&#160;end&#160;of lockdowns.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:294px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Granted,&#160;some&#160;sectors&#160;performed&#160;much better&#160;than&#160;others,&#160;but on&#160;balance&#160;the results&#160;came in&#160;line&#160;with&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:312px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">our&#160;expectations.&#160;&#160;<br/>The&#160;retail&#160;sector&#160;was&#160;one&#160;of&#160;the&#160;best&#160;performing&#160;post&#160;crisis.&#160;Most&#160;of the&#160;euro zone&#160;countries&#160;registered&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:358px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">a V-shaped recovery&#160;in retail&#160;sales&#160;in&#160;May&#160;and&#160;June,&#160;which&#160;was&#160;expected.&#160;Retailers&#160;benefitted&#160;from&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:376px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">pent-up&#160;demand that&#160;accumulated during&#160;the&#160;lockdown and&#160;from&#160;a diversion from&#160;services&#160;to&#160;goods&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:394px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">spending&#160;as&#160;a variety&#160;of consumer-facing&#160;services&#160;facilities&#160;were&#160;closed for&#160;longer&#160;and&#160;travel&#160;remained&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:412px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">disrupted.&#160;Latest&#160;numbers&#160;confirm that&#160;the momentum in&#160;sales&#160;moderated&#160;in&#160;July&#160;as&#160;the&#160;economy&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:430px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">moved further&#160;toward&#160;normal&#160;and&#160;as&#160;restrictions&#160;on&#160;travel&#160;were&#160;lifted&#160;across&#160;the&#160;EU&#160;from&#160;the&#160;start&#160;of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:448px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">July.&#160;While&#160;occupancy&#160;rates&#160;did remain below&#160;seasonal&#160;norms,&#160;anecdotal&#160;evidence&#160;showed&#160;tourists&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:466px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">again&#160;flocking&#160;to most&#160;European&#160;summer&#160;destinations&#160;during&#160;the&#160;second half&#160;of July&#160;and August—and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:484px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">that&#160;despite the resurgence&#160;in&#160;COVID-19&#160;cases&#160;over&#160;the&#160;past&#160;month.&#160;<br/>The&#160;problem&#160;is&#160;that prospects&#160;for&#160;retail,&#160;tourism and&#160;most other&#160;economic&#160;activities&#160;remain very&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:530px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">subdued.&#160;That’s&#160;true&#160;especially&#160;because&#160;risks&#160;of&#160;renewed&#160;restrictions&#160;have&#160;surged&#160;over&#160;the past weeks,&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:548px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">in&#160;line&#160;with&#160;the&#160;jump&#160;in COVID&#160;cases&#160;across&#160;most&#160;euro zone&#160;countries.&#160;While&#160;we&#160;don’t&#160;think&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:566px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">governments&#160;will&#160;reimpose the widespread&#160;strict&#160;measures&#160;that&#160;were&#160;in&#160;place&#160;in March&#160;and April,&#160;we&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:584px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">can’t&#160;rule&#160;out&#160;localized&#160;restrictions&#160;or&#160;new&#160;travel&#160;bans.&#160;This&#160;would take&#160;a&#160;further&#160;toll&#160;on activity&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:602px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">ensure that&#160;investment remains&#160;in&#160;the&#160;doldrums&#160;for&#160;longer.&#160;<br/>Even&#160;if&#160;governments&#160;refrain&#160;from&#160;further&#160;restrictions&#160;and&#160;infections&#160;stabilize&#160;over&#160;the&#160;coming&#160;weeks&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:648px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">months,&#160;our&#160;view&#160;is&#160;that&#160;the post-crisis&#160;rebound&#160;will&#160;lose&#160;steam&#160;during&#160;the&#160;second half&#160;of the&#160;year,&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:666px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">that&#160;activity&#160;will&#160;remain restrained as&#160;long&#160;as&#160;&#160;no&#160;vaccine&#160;or&#160;cure&#160;for&#160;the&#160;disease&#160;is&#160;available.&#160;Indeed,&#160;our&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:684px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">baseline&#160;is&#160;that activity&#160;won’t&#160;return&#160;to&#160;precrisis&#160;levels&#160;across&#160;the&#160;euro&#160;zone before 2022.&#160;<br/>This&#160;weak&#160;growth&#160;outlook&#160;is&#160;compounded by&#160;the&#160;latest&#160;inflation&#160;numbers&#160;showing&#160;the&#160;euro&#160;zone&#160;fell&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:729px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">into&#160;deflation&#160;in&#160;August.&#160;Together,&#160;they&#160;may&#160;warrant&#160;further&#160;stimulus&#160;from&#160;the ECB.&#160;But we caution&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:747px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">that&#160;most&#160;of the&#160;decline&#160;in inflation&#160;in&#160;August&#160;was&#160;due&#160;to&#160;noise;&#160;September&#160;should&#160;bring&#160;a mean-</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:765px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">reversion.&#160;And&#160;in&#160;any&#160;case&#160;the&#160;ECB&#160;already&#160;was&#160;forecasting&#160;a sharp&#160;decline&#160;in underlying&#160;inflation&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:783px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">pressures&#160;in the&#160;third&#160;quarter.&#160;The&#160;central&#160;bank’s&#160;growth&#160;outlook&#160;had&#160;also&#160;penciled&#160;in a sharp&#160;slowdown&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:801px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">in&#160;the recovery&#160;in&#160;the second&#160;half&#160;of&#160;the year.&#160;<br/>Don’t get&#160;us&#160;wrong.&#160;We think more&#160;stimulus&#160;will&#160;come&#160;soon—through&#160;an&#160;extended pandemic&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:847px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">emergency&#160;purchase&#160;programme—but we just don’t&#160;think it will&#160;come as&#160;soon&#160;as&#160;this&#160;month.&#160;At&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:865px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">current pace,&#160;PEPP&#160;purchases&#160;are set to&#160;end&#160;at the start&#160;of&#160;next year,&#160;which&#160;gives&#160;the&#160;ECB&#160;time&#160;to&#160;wait&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:883px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">and&#160;see.&#160;In&#160;our&#160;baseline,&#160;we&#160;have&#160;more&#160;stimulus&#160;being&#160;added to&#160;the&#160;economy&#160;toward&#160;the end&#160;of&#160;2020.&#160;<br/>Elsewhere,&#160;the&#160;U.K.&#160;monthly&#160;GDP&#160;figures&#160;are&#160;set&#160;to&#160;show&#160;that&#160;the economy&#160;continued&#160;to&#160;rebound&#160;in&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:929px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">July&#160;following&#160;strong&#160;results&#160;for&#160;June.&#160;Most&#160;of the&#160;upside&#160;likely&#160;came&#160;in&#160;the&#160;services&#160;sector,&#160;since&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:947px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">restaurants&#160;and hotels&#160;finally&#160;were allowed&#160;to&#160;reopen&#160;at&#160;the start of&#160;the month.&#160;Restaurant&#160;bookings&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:965px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">remained&#160;below&#160;seasonal&#160;norms,&#160;but the&#160;government’s&#160;Eat&#160;Out to&#160;Help&#160;Out scheme&#160;is&#160;nonetheless&#160;set&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:983px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">to&#160;have&#160;contributed to a&#160;big&#160;rebound&#160;in&#160;eating-out&#160;spending.&#160;Travel&#160;also&#160;restarted and&#160;should&#160;have&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1001px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">given a boost&#160;to the&#160;hospitality&#160;and transportation sector.&#160;Adding&#160;to that,&#160;our&#160;view&#160;is&#160;that&#160;construction&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1019px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">output&#160;rose&#160;over&#160;the&#160;month&#160;and&#160;built&#160;on July’s&#160;rebound—though&#160;July’s above-average&#160;rainfall&#160;could&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1037px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">have&#160;dented&#160;progress&#160;in&#160;some&#160;building&#160;sites.&#160;Manufacturing&#160;production&#160;also&#160;should&#160;have&#160;increased but&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1055px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">only&#160;slightly&#160;given the&#160;continued disruptions&#160;to global&#160;trade,&#160;which&#160;should have&#160;dented&#160;external&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1073px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">demand.&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:471px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:502px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:525px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">11&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:87px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:304px;left:864px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:117px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Key&#160;indicators&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:117px;left:648px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Units</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:117px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Moody's&#160;Analytics</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:117px;left:821px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Last</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:133px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Mon&#160;@&#160;<chron>8:00&#160;a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:133px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Germany:&#160;Industrial&#160;Production for&#160;July</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:133px;left:640px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">%&#160;change</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:133px;left:742px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">4.4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:133px;left:822px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">8.9</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:149px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Tues&#160;@&#160;<chron>9:00 a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:149px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Italy:&#160;Retail Sales&#160;for&#160;July</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:149px;left:640px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">%&#160;change</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:149px;left:742px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">5.6</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:149px;left:822px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">12.1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:165px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Tues&#160;@&#160;<chron>10:00 a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:165px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09"><location>Euro Zone</location>:&#160;GDP&#160;for&#160;Q2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:165px;left:640px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">%&#160;change</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:165px;left:739px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">-12.1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:165px;left:821px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">-3.6</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:180px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Tues&#160;@&#160;<chron>11:00&#160;a.m.</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:180px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">OECD:&#160;Composite&#160;Leading&#160;Indicators&#160;for&#160;August</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:180px;left:739px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">99.2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:180px;left:819px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">98.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:196px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Thur&#160;@&#160;<chron>7:45&#160;a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:196px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">France:&#160;Industrial&#160;Production&#160;for July</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:196px;left:640px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">%&#160;change</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:196px;left:742px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">4.1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:196px;left:821px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">12.7</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:211px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Thur&#160;@&#160;<chron>9:00 a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:211px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Italy:&#160;Industrial&#160;Production&#160;for&#160;July</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:211px;left:639px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">%&#160;change&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:211px;left:742px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">4.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:211px;left:823px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">8.2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:227px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Thur&#160;@&#160;<chron>12:45&#160;p.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:227px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Euro&#160;Zone:&#160;Monetary&#160;Policy&#160;for&#160;September</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:227px;left:654px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:227px;left:742px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">0.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:227px;left:822px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">0.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:243px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Fri&#160;@&#160;<chron>7:00&#160;a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:243px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Germany:&#160;Consumer&#160;Price&#160;Index&#160;for&#160;August</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:243px;left:627px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">%&#160;change&#160;yr&#160;ago</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:243px;left:742px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">0.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:243px;left:822px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">-0.1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Fri&#160;@&#160;<chron>8:00&#160;a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Spain:&#160;Industrial&#160;Production&#160;for&#160;July</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:640px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">%&#160;change</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:742px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">3.6</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:821px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">14.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:274px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Fri&#160;@&#160;<chron>8:00&#160;a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:274px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Spain:&#160;Consumer&#160;Price&#160;Index&#160;for&#160;August</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:274px;left:627px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">%&#160;change&#160;yr&#160;ago</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:274px;left:740px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">-0.5</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:274px;left:821px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">-0.6</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:290px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Fri&#160;@&#160;<chron>9:30&#160;a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:290px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">U.K.: Monthly&#160;GDP&#160;for&#160;July</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:290px;left:639px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">%&#160;change&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:290px;left:742px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">4.8</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:290px;left:823px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">8.7</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:305px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Fri&#160;@&#160;<chron>2:00&#160;p.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:305px;left:330px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">Russia:&#160;Foreign&#160;Trade&#160;for&#160;July</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:305px;left:651px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">$ bil</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:305px;left:742px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">5.5</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:305px;left:823px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft09">5.3</p>

</div>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:27px;left:451px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:27px;left:563px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:57px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">The&#160;Week&#160;Ahead&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:75px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:105px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:120px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:151px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:181px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:197px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:212px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:242px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:273px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:288px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:303px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:334px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:349px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:380px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:395px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:410px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:441px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft025">&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:471px;left:98px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:486px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:502px;left:64px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:525px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">12&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:90px;left:864px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:115px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft032">ASIA-PACIFIC&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:133px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">By&#160;Shahana&#160;Mukherjee&#160;of&#160;Moody’s&#160;Analytics&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:160px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft041">The&#160;Pandemic&#160;Likely&#160;Moderated the&#160;Surge in&#160;China’s&#160;Exports&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:194px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">We&#160;expect&#160;China’s&#160;trade&#160;position to&#160;have&#160;moderately&#160;eased in&#160;August.&#160;Exports&#160;are&#160;likely&#160;to have&#160;grown&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:212px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">by&#160;5%&#160;in&#160;yearly&#160;terms&#160;following&#160;a stronger&#160;7.2%&#160;pickup&#160;in July.&#160;While&#160;China’s&#160;economic&#160;recovery&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:230px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">continued&#160;through&#160;August,&#160;a rise&#160;in&#160;the&#160;global&#160;COVID-19&#160;infections&#160;curve,&#160;particularly&#160;a resurgence&#160;of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:248px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">new&#160;cases&#160;in&#160;parts&#160;of the&#160;Asia-Pacific&#160;region&#160;and&#160;Europe,&#160;is&#160;likely&#160;to have&#160;weakened the&#160;pace&#160;of revival&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:266px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">in&#160;global&#160;demand&#160;and moderated the&#160;surge&#160;in China’s&#160;outbound&#160;shipments.&#160;Over&#160;this&#160;period,&#160;imports&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:284px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">are&#160;likely&#160;to have&#160;declined by&#160;1%&#160;in&#160;yearly&#160;terms&#160;following&#160;a 1.4%&#160;decline&#160;in&#160;July,&#160;as&#160;we&#160;expect&#160;that&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:302px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">domestic&#160;consumption&#160;continues&#160;to&#160;improve&#160;at&#160;a&#160;constrained pace&#160;in China.&#160;&#160;<br/>The&#160;second estimate&#160;of&#160;Japan’s&#160;real&#160;GDP&#160;contraction over&#160;the&#160;June&#160;quarter&#160;is&#160;likely&#160;to be&#160;7.4%&#160;on&#160;a&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:348px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">quarterly&#160;basis,&#160;following&#160;an initial&#160;estimate&#160;of a&#160;7.8%&#160;contraction.&#160;The&#160;economy&#160;sank&#160;deep&#160;into&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:366px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">recession&#160;as&#160;a&#160;sharp&#160;slowdown&#160;in&#160;domestic&#160;consumption&#160;and exports&#160;induced by&#160;the&#160;pandemic&#160;and&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:384px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">containment&#160;measures&#160;weighed heavily&#160;on&#160;growth&#160;prospects.&#160;We&#160;expect&#160;a slight&#160;upward&#160;revision&#160;in&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:402px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">investment&#160;or&#160;government&#160;expenditure&#160;to bring&#160;about&#160;a&#160;marginal&#160;change&#160;in the&#160;aggregate.&#160;<br/>South Korea’s&#160;unemployment&#160;rate is&#160;likely&#160;to&#160;have held&#160;steady&#160;at 4.2%&#160;in&#160;August.&#160;While&#160;global&#160;demand&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:448px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">has&#160;continued&#160;to ease,&#160;as&#160;reflected in South&#160;Korea’s&#160;outbound shipments&#160;(net&#160;of&#160;the&#160;calendar&#160;effect),&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:466px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">the&#160;recent surge&#160;in&#160;domestic&#160;COVID-19&#160;cases&#160;and&#160;the renewed&#160;restrictions&#160;have impacted&#160;consumer&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:484px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">spending,&#160;and&#160;this&#160;is&#160;likely&#160;to&#160;have moderated&#160;an&#160;improvement in&#160;employment&#160;prospects.&#160;<br/>India’s&#160;industrial&#160;production&#160;is&#160;likely&#160;to have&#160;declined&#160;by&#160;14%&#160;in&#160;yearly&#160;terms&#160;in&#160;July&#160;following&#160;a&#160;16.6%&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:530px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">decline&#160;in&#160;June.&#160;Economic&#160;activity&#160;has&#160;resumed in&#160;varying&#160;capacities&#160;as&#160;restrictions&#160;have&#160;been&#160;gradually&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:548px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">eased across&#160;states.&#160;However,&#160;with&#160;the&#160;domestic&#160;infections&#160;curve&#160;continuing&#160;to&#160;rise&#160;and&#160;global&#160;demand&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:566px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">undergoing&#160;a&#160;gradual&#160;revival,&#160;only&#160;a&#160;moderate&#160;recovery&#160;in&#160;industrial&#160;output&#160;was&#160;likely&#160;in&#160;July.&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:765px;left:864px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:789px;left:235px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:623px;left:334px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Key&#160;indicators&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:623px;left:616px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Units</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:623px;left:676px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Moody's&#160;Analytics&#160;Confidence&#160;Risk</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:623px;left:836px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Last</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:641px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Mon&#160;@&#160;<chron>1:00 p.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:641px;left:334px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">China&#160;Foreign&#160;Trade&#160;for August</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:641px;left:612px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">US$bil</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:641px;left:704px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">51.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:641px;left:775px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:641px;left:803px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft043">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:641px;left:835px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">62.3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:659px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Tues&#160;@&#160;<chron>9:50&#160;a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:659px;left:334px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Japan GDP&#160;Second&#160;Estimate&#160;for&#160;Q2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:659px;left:606px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">%&#160;change</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:658px;left:705px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-7.4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:659px;left:775px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:658px;left:803px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft043">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:658px;left:836px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-7.8</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:676px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Wed&#160;@&#160;<chron>9:00 a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:676px;left:334px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">South&#160;Korea&#160;Unemployment&#160;for&#160;August</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:676px;left:623px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">%</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:675px;left:707px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">4.2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:676px;left:775px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:676px;left:810px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft044"></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:675px;left:838px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">4.2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:694px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Wed&#160;@&#160;<chron>11:00 a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:694px;left:334px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">China&#160;CPI&#160;for&#160;August</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:694px;left:591px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">%&#160;change&#160;yr&#160;ago</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:693px;left:707px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">2.9</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:694px;left:775px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:693px;left:813px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft045"></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:693px;left:838px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">2.7</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:711px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Wed&#160;@&#160;<chron>11:00 a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:711px;left:334px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">China&#160;Producer Price&#160;Index&#160;for August</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:711px;left:591px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">%&#160;change&#160;yr&#160;ago</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:710px;left:706px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-1.5</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:711px;left:775px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:711px;left:803px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft043">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:710px;left:836px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-2.4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:729px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Thur&#160;@&#160;<chron>9:50&#160;a.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:729px;left:334px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Japan&#160;Machinery&#160;Orders&#160;for July</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:729px;left:605px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">%&#160;change&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:728px;left:707px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">2.5</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:729px;left:775px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:728px;left:803px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft043">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:728px;left:836px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-7.6</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:747px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Fri&#160;@&#160;<chron>1:00 p.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:747px;left:334px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">China&#160;Money&#160;Supply&#160;for&#160;August</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:590px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">%&#160;change&#160;yr&#160;ago</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:745px;left:702px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">10.70</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:747px;left:775px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:810px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft044"></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:745px;left:832px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">10.70</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:764px;left:238px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Fri&#160;@&#160;<chron>10:00 p.m.</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:764px;left:334px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">India&#160;Industrial&#160;Production&#160;for&#160;July</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:764px;left:591px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">%&#160;change&#160;yr&#160;ago</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:763px;left:703px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-14.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:764px;left:775px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:764px;left:803px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft043">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:763px;left:834px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">-16.6</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">13&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:61px;left:65px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">The&#160;Long&#160;View&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:78px;left:97px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">d</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:78px;left:129px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:90px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft015">The&#160;Long&#160;View&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:114px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft041">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:139px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft048">The&#160;latest&#160;surge&#160;by&#160;VIX&#160;to&#160;nearly&#160;36&#160;points&#160;may&#160;again&#160;overstate&#160;any&#160;<br/>worsening&#160;of&#160;fundamentals.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:190px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft041">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:215px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">By&#160;John&#160;Lonski,&#160;Chief&#160;Economist,&#160;Moody’s&#160;Capital Markets Research&#160;Group&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:233px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07"><chron>September&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:250px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:277px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft046">CREDIT&#160;SPREADS</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:275px;left:289px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:293px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">As&#160;measured by&#160;Moody's&#160;long-term&#160;average corporate bond&#160;yield,&#160;the recent investment grade corporate&#160;<br/>bond yield spread of&#160;136&#160;basis&#160;points&#160;exceeded&#160;its&#160;116&#160;basis-point&#160;median&#160;of&#160;the&#160;30&#160;years&#160;ended&#160;2019.&#160;This&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:330px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">spread&#160;may&#160;be&#160;no&#160;wider&#160;than&#160;135&#160;bp&#160;by&#160;year-end&#160;2020.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:367px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">The recent&#160;high-yield&#160;bond&#160;spread&#160;of&#160;517&#160;bp&#160;is&#160;thinner&#160;than&#160;what is&#160;suggested&#160;by&#160;the&#160;accompanying&#160;long-</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:385px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">term&#160;Baa&#160;industrial&#160;company&#160;bond&#160;yield spread&#160;of&#160;211&#160;bp&#160;and the&#160;recent&#160;VIX&#160;of&#160;35.6&#160;points.&#160;The latter&#160;has&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:403px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">been&#160;historically&#160;associated with&#160;a&#160;1,025-bp&#160;midpoint&#160;for&#160;the&#160;high-yield&#160;bond spread.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:434px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft047">DEFAULTS</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:431px;left:249px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft032">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:449px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">July&#160;2020’s&#160;U.S.&#160;high-yield&#160;default&#160;rate&#160;of&#160;8.4%&#160;was up&#160;from&#160;July&#160;2019’s&#160;3.1%&#160;and may&#160;approximate&#160;12.0%,&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:467px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">on average,&#160;by&#160;2021’s&#160;first&#160;quarter.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:498px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft047">US&#160;CORPORATE BOND&#160;ISSUANCE&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:513px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Second-quarter&#160;2019’s&#160;worldwide&#160;offerings&#160;of corporate&#160;bonds&#160;revealed&#160;an annual&#160;setback&#160;of 2.5%&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:531px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">an annual&#160;advance&#160;of 17.6%&#160;for&#160;high-yield,&#160;wherein&#160;US$-denominated&#160;offerings&#160;sank&#160;by&#160;12.4%&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:549px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">surged by&#160;30.3%&#160;for&#160;high&#160;yield.&#160;<br/>Third-quarter&#160;2019’s&#160;worldwide&#160;offerings&#160;of&#160;corporate&#160;bonds&#160;revealed annual&#160;advances&#160;of&#160;15.2%&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:595px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">56.8%&#160;for&#160;high-yield,&#160;wherein&#160;US$-denominated&#160;offerings&#160;soared&#160;higher&#160;by&#160;36.8%&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and&#160;81.3%&#160;for&#160;high&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:613px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">yield.&#160;<br/>Fourth-quarter&#160;2019’s&#160;worldwide&#160;offerings&#160;of&#160;corporate&#160;bonds&#160;revealed annual&#160;advances&#160;of 15.3%&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:658px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">329%&#160;for&#160;high-yield,&#160;wherein&#160;US$-denominated&#160;offerings&#160;dipped&#160;by&#160;0.8%&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and&#160;surged higher&#160;by&#160;330%&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:676px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">for&#160;high&#160;yield.&#160;<br/>First-quarter&#160;2020’s&#160;worldwide&#160;offerings&#160;of&#160;corporate&#160;bonds&#160;revealed&#160;annual&#160;advances&#160;of 17.7%&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:722px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">26.5%&#160;for&#160;high-yield,&#160;wherein&#160;US$-denominated&#160;offerings&#160;increased&#160;43.7%&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and&#160;grew&#160;21.4%&#160;for&#160;high&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:740px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">yield.&#160;<br/>Second-quarter&#160;2020’s&#160;worldwide&#160;offerings&#160;of&#160;corporate&#160;bonds&#160;revealed&#160;annual&#160;surges&#160;of 69%&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and 31%&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:786px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">for&#160;high-yield,&#160;wherein&#160;US$-denominated&#160;offerings&#160;increased&#160;142%&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and&#160;grew&#160;45%&#160;for&#160;high&#160;yield.&#160;<br/>For&#160;2019,&#160;worldwide&#160;corporate&#160;bond&#160;offerings&#160;grew&#160;by&#160;5.4%&#160;annually&#160;(to&#160;<money>$2.447&#160;trillion</money>)&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and advanced&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:832px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">by&#160;49.2%&#160;for&#160;high&#160;yield&#160;(to <money>$561&#160;billion</money>).&#160;The&#160;projected annual&#160;percent&#160;increases&#160;for&#160;2020’s&#160;worldwide&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:850px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">corporate&#160;bond offerings&#160;are&#160;a&#160;11.7%&#160;advance&#160;for&#160;IG&#160;and&#160;9.7%&#160;for&#160;high&#160;yield.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:877px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft047">US&#160;ECONOMIC OUTLOOK</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:877px;left:334px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft046">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:893px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">Unacceptably&#160;high&#160;unemployment&#160;and&#160;other&#160;low&#160;rates&#160;of&#160;resource&#160;utilization will&#160;rein&#160;in&#160;Treasury&#160;bond yields.&#160;<br/>As&#160;long&#160;as&#160;the&#160;global&#160;economy&#160;operates&#160;below&#160;trend,&#160;1.00%&#160;will&#160;serve as&#160;the&#160;upper&#160;bound&#160;for&#160;the&#160;10-year&#160;<br/>Treasury&#160;yield.&#160;Until&#160;COVID-19&#160;risks&#160;fade,&#160;substantially&#160;wider&#160;credit&#160;spreads&#160;are&#160;possible.&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">14&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:61px;left:65px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">The&#160;Long&#160;View&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:78px;left:97px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">d</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:78px;left:129px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:92px;left:846px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:106px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft049">EUROPE&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:124px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">By&#160;Barbara Teixeira&#160;Araujo&#160;of&#160;Moody’s&#160;Analytics&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:141px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07"><chron>September&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:177px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft047">FRANCE&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Markets&#160;got&#160;a&#160;boost&#160;on&#160;Thursday&#160;by&#160;the&#160;French&#160;government’s&#160;unveiling&#160;of&#160;a&#160;huge €100&#160;billion&#160;fiscal&#160;plan&#160;aimed&#160;at&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:209px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">supporting&#160;the&#160;economy&#160;through&#160;the&#160;post-COVID&#160;recovery&#160;phase.&#160;The&#160;stimulus&#160;amounts to&#160;4%&#160;of&#160;the&#160;country’s&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:226px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">GDP&#160;and&#160;comes on top&#160;of&#160;all the&#160;other&#160;support&#160;measures put&#160;in&#160;place&#160;since&#160;March—the&#160;biggest&#160;of&#160;all&#160;being&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:244px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft050">government’s&#160;flagship&#160;job retention&#160;scheme Chomage&#160;Partiel.&#160;<br/>The&#160;plan&#160;is&#160;called “France&#160;Reboot”&#160;and consists&#160;of&#160;tax&#160;cuts, money&#160;to&#160;boost&#160;youth&#160;employment&#160;and&#160;training,&#160;as&#160;well&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:288px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">as&#160;funds&#160;supporting&#160;the&#160;move&#160;towards&#160;a&#160;greener&#160;economy&#160;such&#160;as&#160;the&#160;renovation&#160;of&#160;buildings,&#160;investment&#160;in&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:305px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">environmentally&#160;friendly&#160;industries,&#160;and decarbonization. The&#160;stimulus is aimed&#160;mostly&#160;at&#160;helping&#160;the&#160;supply&#160;side&#160;of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:322px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">the&#160;economy&#160;and improving&#160;competitiveness&#160;while&#160;doing&#160;little&#160;to&#160;support&#160;the&#160;biggest&#160;engine&#160;of&#160;French&#160;growth—</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:339px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">consumer&#160;confidence.&#160;Nonetheless,&#160;the government’s&#160;estimates&#160;suggest&#160;that it would&#160;help&#160;the&#160;French&#160;economy&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:356px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft050">return&#160;to&#160;precrisis&#160;levels in 2022, which&#160;comes&#160;in line with&#160;our&#160;baseline forecast.&#160;<br/>The&#160;government highlighted&#160;that&#160;40%&#160;of the package’s&#160;funding—which&#160;will run&#160;over&#160;two years—comes&#160;from&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:400px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">EU’s&#160;joint&#160;recovery&#160;fund agreed&#160;on in July,&#160;with&#160;the&#160;remaining&#160;€600&#160;billion coming&#160;from&#160;state&#160;coffers&#160;and&#160;from&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:417px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">French&#160;public&#160;investment bank.&#160;This&#160;will&#160;drive&#160;up&#160;the deficit and&#160;public&#160;debt&#160;sharply,&#160;but we&#160;don’t&#160;think&#160;it will&#160;result&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:435px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">in&#160;major&#160;conflicts with&#160;the&#160;<org>European Commission</org>.&#160;The&#160;institution is&#160;likely&#160;to&#160;become&#160;more&#160;relaxed&#160;about&#160;spending&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:452px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">thresholds&#160;in&#160;the aftermath&#160;of the&#160;COVID-19&#160;crisis&#160;given&#160;the&#160;risks of&#160;a&#160;prolonged recession.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:488px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft047">GERMANY&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:503px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Wednesday&#160;brought&#160;the&#160;release&#160;of&#160;Germany’s&#160;retail sales&#160;for&#160;July.&#160;The&#160;results&#160;disappointed,&#160;showing&#160;that&#160;sales&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:520px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">declined by&#160;0.9%&#160;in monthly&#160;terms following&#160;a&#160;downwardly&#160;revised&#160;1.9%&#160;drop&#160;in&#160;June. Both&#160;we&#160;and&#160;the&#160;consensus&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:537px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">had penciled in a&#160;small increase.&#160;But&#160;we&#160;shouldn’t&#160;put&#160;too much&#160;stock&#160;into&#160;the&#160;decline,&#160;as&#160;sales&#160;are&#160;still reading&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:554px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft050">0.9%&#160;above&#160;their&#160;February&#160;levels&#160;and&#160;are up&#160;by&#160;4.2%&#160;in&#160;yearly&#160;terms.&#160;<br/>Most&#160;of&#160;the&#160;drop&#160;was&#160;due&#160;to volatility&#160;in the&#160;pharmaceuticals&#160;subsector&#160;and&#160;to&#160;a&#160;further normalization&#160;in&#160;online&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:598px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">sales following&#160;the&#160;lockdown-related&#160;boost.&#160;Sales&#160;increased&#160;everywhere else,&#160;and&#160;of&#160;note is&#160;that&#160;sales&#160;of furniture,&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:616px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">furnishing,&#160;domestic&#160;appliances&#160;and building&#160;materials read&#160;11.1%&#160;above their&#160;February&#160;levels,&#160;confirming&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:633px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">anecdotal&#160;evidence&#160;that&#160;people&#160;invested&#160;in home&#160;renovation&#160;during&#160;the&#160;lockdown.&#160;Sales of&#160;information&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:650px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">communication&#160;equipment&#160;also&#160;performed well,&#160;up&#160;9.1%&#160;from&#160;precrisis levels,&#160;as the&#160;sector benefited&#160;from&#160;a&#160;turn&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:667px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft050">towards goods&#160;spending&#160;and&#160;away&#160;from&#160;services,&#160;given the&#160;social-distancing&#160;and travel&#160;restrictions.&#160;&#160;<br/>The&#160;upshot&#160;is that&#160;we&#160;are&#160;not&#160;too&#160;worried&#160;about&#160;July’s&#160;disappointing&#160;headline. The&#160;details&#160;painted&#160;a&#160;better&#160;picture,&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:711px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">and overall the&#160;data&#160;confirmed&#160;that&#160;the&#160;post-crisis&#160;V-shape&#160;rebound is still&#160;intact. Adding&#160;to&#160;the&#160;good&#160;news&#160;is&#160;that&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:728px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">the&#160;government&#160;recently&#160;expanded its short-term&#160;job retention&#160;scheme,&#160;which&#160;allows&#160;firms&#160;to&#160;reduce employees’&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:745px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">working&#160;hours instead&#160;of&#160;letting&#160;them&#160;go.&#160;It&#160;was&#160;set&#160;to&#160;expire&#160;in&#160;March&#160;2021&#160;but&#160;will now&#160;last until&#160;December&#160;2021.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:763px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">The&#160;government will&#160;continue to&#160;pay&#160;for&#160;up&#160;to&#160;two-thirds of&#160;missing&#160;hours, which&#160;is&#160;helping&#160;to prevent&#160;a&#160;sharp&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:780px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">decline&#160;in purchasing&#160;power.&#160;This&#160;extension&#160;is&#160;estimated&#160;to cost&#160;the&#160;government&#160;an&#160;extra&#160;€10&#160;billion—initially&#160;what&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:797px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft050">was&#160;roughly&#160;planned&#160;for&#160;the whole&#160;Kurzarbeit scheme—with&#160;the money&#160;coming&#160;from&#160;the 2021&#160;budget.&#160;&#160;<br/>Worth&#160;noting&#160;is&#160;that&#160;this&#160;extension&#160;in&#160;the&#160;job&#160;retention&#160;scheme&#160;should&#160;prevent&#160;a&#160;surge&#160;in job&#160;losses&#160;in&#160;the&#160;near&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:841px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">term,&#160;as&#160;struggling&#160;firms wouldn’t&#160;survive&#160;the&#160;financial&#160;stress&#160;if&#160;the&#160;support&#160;were&#160;withdrawn and would be&#160;forced to&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:858px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">let people go.&#160;We&#160;are thus&#160;likely&#160;to&#160;soon&#160;revise down&#160;our&#160;forecast for&#160;Germany’s&#160;unemployment&#160;rate.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:875px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Unfortunately,&#160;this&#160;is&#160;not&#160;the case&#160;everywhere&#160;in&#160;Europe,&#160;with&#160;several governments&#160;already&#160;starting&#160;to wind down&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:892px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">their own short-term&#160;work&#160;schemes.&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">15&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:61px;left:65px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">The&#160;Long&#160;View&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:78px;left:97px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">d</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:78px;left:129px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:92px;left:846px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:106px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft049">ASIA PACIFIC&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:124px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">By&#160;Shahana Mukherjee&#160;of&#160;Moody’s&#160;Analytics&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:142px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07"><chron>September&#160;3, 2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:179px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft047">AUSTRALIA&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:194px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">The&#160;Australian&#160;economy&#160;plunged into recession&#160;in the&#160;June&#160;quarter,&#160;as&#160;real&#160;GDP&#160;contracted by&#160;a historic&#160;7%&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:212px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">on a&#160;quarterly&#160;basis,&#160;following&#160;a&#160;relatively&#160;muted&#160;0.3%&#160;decline&#160;in the&#160;prior&#160;quarter.&#160;The&#160;June&#160;quarter&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:230px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">contraction aligned with&#160;our&#160;baseline&#160;expectations.&#160;Most&#160;categories&#160;declined&#160;sharply,&#160;but&#160;household&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:248px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">consumption contracted&#160;by&#160;a&#160;severe 12.1%&#160;and&#160;drove&#160;the downturn&#160;as&#160;the&#160;full&#160;effects&#160;of&#160;the&#160;domestic&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:266px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">international&#160;pandemic&#160;restrictions&#160;materialized&#160;during&#160;this&#160;quarter.&#160;Not&#160;surprisingly,&#160;government&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:284px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">consumption&#160;was&#160;the&#160;only&#160;redeeming&#160;feature,&#160;rising&#160;by&#160;2.9%.&#160;&#160;<br/>Other&#160;features&#160;were&#160;equally&#160;noteworthy.&#160;First,&#160;gross&#160;investment&#160;contracted sharply,&#160;falling&#160;by&#160;6.5%&#160;in&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:330px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">quarterly&#160;terms,&#160;as&#160;investment&#160;in&#160;dwellings&#160;and machinery&#160;and&#160;equipment&#160;contracted&#160;by&#160;nearly&#160;7%&#160;each&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:348px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">during&#160;the&#160;June&#160;quarter.&#160;Exports,&#160;too,&#160;played a&#160;prominent&#160;role,&#160;contracting by&#160;6.7%,&#160;which&#160;dragged&#160;growth&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:366px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">down&#160;by&#160;1.4&#160;percentage&#160;points.&#160;<br/>The COVID-19&#160;pandemic&#160;and&#160;the&#160;associated&#160;restrictions&#160;have&#160;brought&#160;an&#160;end to&#160;Australia’s&#160;growth&#160;streak&#160;of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:411px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">nearly&#160;three&#160;decades.&#160;Even&#160;though&#160;a&#160;GDP&#160;contraction&#160;of&#160;this&#160;magnitude&#160;is&#160;severe&#160;and unprecedented,&#160;it&#160;is&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:429px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">important to&#160;remember&#160;that&#160;it&#160;is&#160;a&#160;backward-looking&#160;measure.&#160;An&#160;effective&#160;management of&#160;the&#160;health crisis&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:447px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">allowed&#160;an earlier&#160;than expected&#160;easing&#160;of restrictions&#160;since&#160;May,&#160;which&#160;led to&#160;a&#160;notable&#160;rebound in&#160;spending&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:465px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">on&#160;the back&#160;of pent-up&#160;demand and the&#160;government’s&#160;income-support&#160;measures.&#160;On&#160;the&#160;external&#160;front,&#160;too,&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:483px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Australia&#160;was&#160;relatively&#160;better&#160;positioned&#160;compared with&#160;its&#160;regional&#160;counterparts,&#160;as&#160;it&#160;benefitted&#160;from&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:501px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">China’s&#160;recovery,&#160;which&#160;supported&#160;strong&#160;demand for&#160;commodities.&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:539px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft032">A&#160;second&#160;wave&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:556px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">However,&#160;the emergence of&#160;a&#160;prominent&#160;second&#160;wave in&#160;Victoria&#160;has&#160;disrupted&#160;the recovery&#160;momentum&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:574px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">since&#160;July.&#160;Even though&#160;daily&#160;cases&#160;have&#160;started&#160;trending&#160;lower,&#160;the&#160;downside&#160;risk&#160;from&#160;a&#160;deceleration in&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:592px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">domestic&#160;consumer&#160;spending,&#160;partially&#160;a result&#160;of the&#160;renewed restrictions&#160;in Victoria,&#160;will&#160;be&#160;a pertinent&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:610px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">factor&#160;in&#160;the near&#160;term.&#160;Even&#160;though these&#160;restrictions&#160;are&#160;applicable to&#160;one state,&#160;Victoria&#160;accounts&#160;for&#160;24%&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:628px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">of&#160;national&#160;output&#160;and nearly&#160;27%&#160;of employment,&#160;so these&#160;measures&#160;will&#160;have&#160;a&#160;sizeable&#160;impact&#160;on&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:646px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">aggregate&#160;spending,&#160;at least,&#160;during&#160;the September&#160;quarter.&#160;&#160;<br/>This&#160;deceleration&#160;will&#160;amplify&#160;the&#160;strain on&#160;an already&#160;fragile&#160;labour&#160;market.&#160;While&#160;the&#160;official&#160;unemployment&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:692px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">rate&#160;rose&#160;to&#160;7.5%&#160;in&#160;July,&#160;employment&#160;growth&#160;remained&#160;around&#160;3.2%&#160;below&#160;last year’s&#160;levels,&#160;even&#160;though&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:710px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">this&#160;marks&#160;an&#160;improvement from&#160;the&#160;5.7%&#160;contraction&#160;in&#160;May.&#160;This&#160;figure,&#160;however,&#160;likely&#160;weakened&#160;in&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:728px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">August,&#160;as&#160;the&#160;effects&#160;of the&#160;temporary&#160;business&#160;closures&#160;induced by&#160;the&#160;lockdown in Melbourne&#160;and&#160;wider&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">restrictions&#160;in&#160;Victoria&#160;start&#160;to weigh&#160;in.&#160;<br/>The&#160;economy’s&#160;revival&#160;through&#160;the&#160;rest&#160;of 2020&#160;is&#160;contingent&#160;on various&#160;factors.&#160;First,&#160;so&#160;long&#160;as&#160;consumer&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:792px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">spending&#160;continues&#160;to resume&#160;in other&#160;states,&#160;the&#160;slowdown in&#160;aggregate&#160;demand will&#160;be&#160;moderated to&#160;a&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:810px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">certain&#160;extent.&#160;The government’s&#160;decision to extend&#160;the&#160;wage&#160;subsidy&#160;scheme&#160;until&#160;March&#160;is&#160;also&#160;a favourable&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:828px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">development&#160;and will&#160;assume&#160;an&#160;important&#160;role&#160;in strengthening&#160;this&#160;pickup.&#160;Moreover,&#160;with&#160;the&#160;shock&#160;to&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:846px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">global&#160;trade having&#160;levelled&#160;out by&#160;June,&#160;exports&#160;too,&#160;should&#160;revive&#160;and&#160;continue&#160;to benefit&#160;from&#160;China’s&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:864px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">recovery.&#160;&#160;<br/>That&#160;said,&#160;the&#160;downside&#160;risks&#160;to growth&#160;remain&#160;pertinent.&#160;While&#160;new&#160;cases&#160;in large&#160;economies&#160;such&#160;as&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:909px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">U.S.,&#160;India&#160;and&#160;parts&#160;of Europe&#160;continue&#160;to rise,&#160;a resurgence&#160;of cases&#160;in parts&#160;of&#160;Asia&#160;also threatens&#160;to disrupt&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:927px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">the&#160;pace&#160;of recovery&#160;in overseas&#160;demand.&#160;Rising&#160;geopolitical&#160;tensions&#160;between China&#160;and&#160;the&#160;U.S.&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:945px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">between Australia&#160;and&#160;China&#160;can&#160;also&#160;manifest&#160;into severe&#160;trade&#160;frictions&#160;and&#160;hurt&#160;Australia’s&#160;external&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:963px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">position&#160;during&#160;the&#160;recovery&#160;period.&#160;&#160;<br/>Overall,&#160;while&#160;the&#160;worst&#160;may&#160;be&#160;over&#160;for&#160;Australia,&#160;Victoria’s&#160;restrictions&#160;will&#160;dampen the&#160;revival&#160;during&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1009px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">September&#160;quarter.&#160;In&#160;the current setting,&#160;our&#160;expectation&#160;is&#160;for&#160;full-year&#160;GDP&#160;to&#160;contract&#160;by&#160;6%&#160;in 2020&#160;and&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1027px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft027">for&#160;the unemployment&#160;rate to&#160;peak&#160;at 9.5%&#160;over&#160;the next&#160;few&#160;months.&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">16&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:61px;left:65px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Ratings&#160;Round-Up&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:90px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft013">Ratings&#160;Round-Up&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:111px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:129px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft051">Latest Downgrades&#160;Across&#160;Multiple&#160;Industry Segments&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:165px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">By&#160;Steven&#160;Shields&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:203px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">U.S.&#160;rating&#160;change&#160;activity&#160;weakened&#160;for&#160;the&#160;week ended&#160;September&#160;1&#160;with downgrades&#160;outnumbering&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:222px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">upgrades&#160;seven to two.&#160;Upgrades&#160;still&#160;comprised nearly&#160;half&#160;of&#160;the&#160;debt&#160;affected&#160;in&#160;the&#160;period as&#160;downgrades&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:240px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">were largely&#160;limited&#160;to&#160;small,&#160;speculative-grade&#160;firms.&#160;This&#160;week’s&#160;downgrades&#160;were&#160;spread across&#160;multiple&#160;<br/>industry&#160;segments.&#160;NuStar&#160;Energy&#160;L.P.&#160;was&#160;tied as&#160;the&#160;largest&#160;downgrade&#160;in&#160;the&#160;period in terms&#160;of&#160;debt&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:278px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">affected&#160;with&#160;its&#160;senior&#160;unsecured rating&#160;lowered to&#160;B3&#160;from&#160;B1.&#160;In&#160;total,&#160;<money>$325&#160;million</money>&#160;debt&#160;was&#160;affected by&#160;<br/>the&#160;change.&#160;According&#160;to the&#160;rating&#160;action,&#160;the&#160;downgrade&#160;reflects&#160;Moody's&#160;expectation&#160;that&#160;NuStar&#160;will&#160;not&#160;<br/>generate significant free&#160;cash&#160;flow&#160;and&#160;will&#160;need&#160;to&#160;make divestments&#160;to&#160;reduce debt&#160;in&#160;the near&#160;term.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:334px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">NuStar’s&#160;outlook&#160;remains&#160;negative.&#160;On&#160;August&#160;26,&#160;Moody’s&#160;Investors&#160;Service&#160;downgraded&#160;the&#160;ratings&#160;of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:353px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">Wabash&#160;National&#160;Corporation including&#160;the&#160;corporate&#160;family&#160;rating&#160;to B1&#160;from&#160;Ba3&#160;and its&#160;senior&#160;secured&#160;<br/>debt&#160;to Ba3&#160;from&#160;Ba2&#160;and senior&#160;unsecured&#160;to B3&#160;from&#160;B1.&#160;Wabash&#160;is&#160;exposed&#160;to&#160;the&#160;cyclicality&#160;of&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:391px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">trucking&#160;equipment&#160;sector&#160;and&#160;volatility&#160;of&#160;trailer&#160;demand.&#160;The&#160;weak&#160;fundamentals&#160;will&#160;weigh&#160;on Wabash’s&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:409px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">revenue&#160;and earnings,&#160;and&#160;negatively&#160;impact&#160;credit&#160;metrics&#160;into 2021&#160;in&#160;an uncertain environment.&#160;Mississippi&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:428px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">Power&#160;Company&#160;received&#160;the&#160;largest&#160;upgrade&#160;in&#160;the&#160;period,&#160;impacting&#160;approximately&#160;<money>$911&#160;million</money>&#160;in&#160;debt.&#160;<br/>The&#160;upgrade&#160;to Baa1&#160;from&#160;Baa2&#160;reflects&#160;the&#160;continued&#160;improvement&#160;in the&#160;Mississippi regulatory&#160;environment&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:466px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">which&#160;will&#160;help&#160;the&#160;company&#160;sustain&#160;a&#160;stronger&#160;financial&#160;profile.&#160;The&#160;company’s&#160;outlook&#160;was&#160;also&#160;changed to&#160;<br/>stable&#160;from&#160;positive.&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:503px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:522px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">European&#160;ratings&#160;activity&#160;was&#160;confined&#160;to three&#160;downgrades.&#160;Among&#160;the&#160;changes,&#160;Moody’s&#160;Investors&#160;Service&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:541px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">lowered Fuerstenberg&#160;Capital&#160;Erste&#160;GmbH from&#160;Caa3&#160;to&#160;Ca,&#160;affecting&#160;<money>$1.01&#160;billion</money> in&#160;outstanding&#160;debt.&#160;The&#160;<br/>downgrade&#160;reflects&#160;higher&#160;loss&#160;expectations&#160;following&#160;NORD/LB’s&#160;announcement&#160;that&#160;it&#160;intends&#160;to exercise&#160;a&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:579px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">regulatory&#160;call&#160;right&#160;for&#160;the&#160;silent&#160;participations&#160;securitized&#160;through&#160;Fuerstenberg&#160;Capital&#160;Erste&#160;GmBh&#160;and&#160;its&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:597px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">other&#160;funding&#160;vehicle&#160;Fuerstenberg&#160;Capital&#160;II&#160;GmbH.&#160;Meanwhile,&#160;UK&#160;fashion&#160;retailer,&#160;New&#160;Look Retail&#160;<br/>Holdings&#160;Limited,&#160;received&#160;a&#160;downgrade&#160;to&#160;its&#160;senior&#160;secured notes&#160;to&#160;C&#160;from&#160;Ca&#160;following&#160;the&#160;announcement&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:635px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">earlier&#160;in August&#160;that&#160;the&#160;company&#160;reached&#160;an&#160;agreement&#160;with&#160;its&#160;creditors&#160;to&#160;a&#160;proposed restructuring&#160;of&#160;its&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:654px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">balance&#160;sheet.&#160;Moody's&#160;Investors&#160;Service&#160;considers&#160;the&#160;need&#160;for&#160;this&#160;latest&#160;restructuring&#160;is&#160;directly&#160;linked to&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:673px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft042">the&#160;Coronavirus&#160;crisis&#160;which&#160;has&#160;adversely&#160;affected&#160;both&#160;the&#160;company's&#160;current&#160;year&#160;financial&#160;performance&#160;<br/>and&#160;its&#160;prospects&#160;for&#160;future&#160;trading.&#160;Cassini&#160;SAS&#160;rounded out&#160;European downgrades&#160;in the&#160;period&#160;with&#160;<br/>Moody’s&#160;Investors&#160;Service&#160;lowering&#160;its&#160;senior&#160;secured loans&#160;to&#160;Caa1&#160;from&#160;B2,&#160;reflecting&#160;the&#160;expectation&#160;of&#160;<br/>limited trade&#160;and&#160;exhibition show&#160;activity&#160;through&#160;the&#160;end of&#160;2020&#160;due&#160;to&#160;the&#160;coronavirus&#160;outbreak.&#160;</p>

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<img width="918" height="1188" src="http://mco.acquiremedia.com/images/PBC_1244311017.png" alt="background image"/>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">17&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:61px;left:65px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Ratings&#160;Round-Up&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:471px;left:826px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:768px;left:826px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:783px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:87px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:111px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">FIGURE&#160;1&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:124px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Rating&#160;Changes&#160;-&#160;US&#160;Corporate&#160;&amp;&#160;Financial&#160;Institutions:&#160;Favorable&#160;as&#160;%&#160;of&#160;Total&#160;Actions&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:444px;left:823px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:454px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft052"><i>&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:456px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:382px;left:797px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:342px;left:797px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0.2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:303px;left:797px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0.4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:263px;left:797px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0.6</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:223px;left:797px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0.8</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:183px;left:797px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">1.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:382px;left:211px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:342px;left:211px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0.2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:303px;left:211px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0.4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:263px;left:211px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0.6</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:223px;left:211px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0.8</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:183px;left:212px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">1.0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:225px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Jul01</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:313px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Sep04</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:404px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Nov07</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:499px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Jan11</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:587px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Mar14</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:678px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">May17</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:772px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Jul20</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:159px;left:375px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">By&#160;Count&#160;of&#160;Actions</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:159px;left:519px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft06">By Amount&#160;of&#160;Debt&#160;Affected</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:419px;left:203px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft056">*&#160;Trailing&#160;3-month&#160;&#160;average<br/><i>Source:&#160;Moody's</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:485px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:509px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">FIGURE&#160;2&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:522px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Rating&#160;Key&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:742px;left:824px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:752px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft052"><i>&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:753px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:544px;left:220px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">BCF</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:544px;left:268px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Bank&#160;Credit&#160;Facility&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:544px;left:544px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">MM</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:544px;left:592px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Money-Market</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:562px;left:220px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">CFR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:562px;left:268px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Corporate&#160;Family&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:562px;left:541px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">MTN</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:562px;left:592px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">MTN&#160;Program&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:581px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">CP</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:581px;left:268px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Commercial&#160;Paper&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:581px;left:538px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">Notes</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:581px;left:592px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Notes</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:600px;left:221px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">FSR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:600px;left:268px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Bank&#160;Financial&#160;Strength&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:600px;left:544px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">PDR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:600px;left:592px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Probability&#160;of Default&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:619px;left:222px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">IFS</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:619px;left:268px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Insurance&#160;Financial&#160;Strength&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:619px;left:549px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">PS</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:619px;left:592px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Preferred&#160;Stock&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:638px;left:225px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">IR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:638px;left:268px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Issuer&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:638px;left:540px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">SGLR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:638px;left:592px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Speculative-Grade&#160;Liquidity&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:657px;left:216px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">JrSub</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:657px;left:268px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Junior&#160;Subordinated&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:657px;left:540px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">SLTD</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:657px;left:592px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Short-&#160;and&#160;Long-Term&#160;Deposit Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:676px;left:219px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">LGD</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:676px;left:268px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Loss Given&#160;Default&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:676px;left:539px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">SrSec</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:676px;left:592px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Senior&#160;Secured&#160;Rating&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:695px;left:217px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">LTCF</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:695px;left:268px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Long-Term&#160;Corporate&#160;Family&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:695px;left:532px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">SrUnsec</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:695px;left:592px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Senior&#160;Unsecured&#160;Rating&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:714px;left:220px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">LTD</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:714px;left:268px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Long-Term&#160;Deposit&#160;Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:714px;left:538px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">SrSub</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:714px;left:592px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Senior&#160;Subordinated</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:733px;left:219px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">LTIR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:733px;left:268px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Long-Term&#160;Issuer Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:733px;left:544px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft054">STD</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:733px;left:592px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft055">Short-Term&#160;Deposit Rating</p>

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<img width="918" height="1188" src="http://mco.acquiremedia.com/images/PBC_1244311018.png" alt="background image"/>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">18&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:61px;left:65px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Ratings&#160;Round-Up&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:549px;left:826px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:93px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">FIGURE&#160;3&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:106px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Rating&#160;Changes:&#160;Corporate&#160;&amp;&#160;Financial&#160;Institutions&#160;–&#160;US&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:515px;left:824px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:525px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft052"><i>&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:527px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:544px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:146px;left:210px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">Date</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:146px;left:323px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">Company</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:146px;left:464px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">Sector</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:146px;left:551px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:139px;left:631px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">Amount&#160; &#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:154px;left:624px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">($&#160;Million)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:139px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">Up/&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:154px;left:682px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">Down</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:131px;left:723px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">Old&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:146px;left:723px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">LTD&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:161px;left:716px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:131px;left:758px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">New&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:146px;left:760px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">LTD&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:161px;left:753px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:146px;left:791px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft057">IG/SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:202px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">8/26/20&#160;NUSTAR&#160;ENERGY&#160;L.P.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:457px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Industrial</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:185px;left:531px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SrUnsec/LTCFR&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:200px;left:536px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">/Sub/PDR/PS</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:642px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">325</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:693px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">D</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:727px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:763px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:799px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:226px;left:202px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">8/26/20&#160;WABASH NATIONAL&#160;CORPORATION</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:226px;left:457px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Industrial</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:219px;left:543px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SrSec/BCF&#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:234px;left:538px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">/LTCFR/PDR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:226px;left:642px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">325</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:226px;left:693px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">D</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:226px;left:724px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:226px;left:760px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:226px;left:799px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:202px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><chron>8/26/20</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:250px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft063">KEHE&#160;DISTRIBUTORS&#160;HOLDINGS,&#160;LLC&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;<br/>-<org>KEHE DISTRIBUTORS,&#160;LLC</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:457px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Industrial</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:525px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SrSec/LTCFR/PDR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:641px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">200</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:693px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">U</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:726px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:763px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:258px;left:799px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:289px;left:202px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><chron>8/26/20</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:282px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft063">KCIBT&#160;HOLDINGS,&#160;L.P. &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;<br/>-CIBT&#160;GLOBAL,&#160;INC.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:289px;left:457px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Industrial</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:282px;left:543px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SrSec/BCF&#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:297px;left:538px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">/LTCFR/PDR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:289px;left:693px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">D</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:289px;left:726px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:289px;left:758px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:289px;left:799px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:321px;left:203px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><chron>8/27/20</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:314px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft063">SOUTHERN&#160;COMPANY&#160;(THE)&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;<br/>-MISSISSIPPI POWER&#160;COMPANY</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:321px;left:465px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Utility</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:321px;left:528px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SrUnsec/LTIR/PS</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:321px;left:643px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">911</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:321px;left:693px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">U</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:321px;left:721px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:321px;left:758px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:321px;left:800px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">IG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:359px;left:203px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><chron>8/27/20</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:344px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft063">HOUGHTON&#160;MIFFLIN&#160;HARCOURT&#160;<br/>COMPANY-HOUGHTON&#160;MIFFLIN&#160;<br/>HARCOURT&#160;PUBLISHERS&#160;INC.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:359px;left:457px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Industrial</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:351px;left:543px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SrSec/BCF&#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:366px;left:538px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">/LTCFR/PDR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:359px;left:641px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">306</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:359px;left:693px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">D</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:359px;left:726px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:359px;left:758px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:359px;left:799px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:203px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">8/27/20&#160;MANITOWOC&#160;COMPANY,&#160;INC.&#160;(THE)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:457px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Industrial</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:525px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SrSec/LTCFR/PDR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:641px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">300</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:693px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">D</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:726px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:763px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:397px;left:799px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:438px;left:203px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><chron>8/31/20</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:423px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft063">TOWN&#160;SPORTS&#160;INTERNATIONAL&#160;<br/>HOLDINGS,&#160;INC. &#160;&#160;&#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;<br/>-TOWN&#160;SPORTS&#160;INTERNATIONAL,&#160;LLC</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:438px;left:457px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Industrial</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:430px;left:543px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SrSec/BCF&#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:445px;left:538px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">/LTCFR/PDR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:438px;left:693px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">D</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:438px;left:726px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ca</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:438px;left:766px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">C</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:438px;left:799px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:483px;left:206px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><chron>9/1/20</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:475px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft063">NORTH&#160;AMERICAN&#160;LIFTING&#160;<br/>HOLDINGS,&#160;INC.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:483px;left:457px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Industrial</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:475px;left:543px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SrSec/BCF&#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:490px;left:538px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">/LTCFR/PDR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:483px;left:693px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">D</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:483px;left:720px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:483px;left:763px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ca</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:483px;left:799px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:511px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft059"><i>Source:&#160;Moody's</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:563px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:597px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">FIGURE&#160;4&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:609px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">Rating&#160;Changes:&#160;Corporate&#160;&amp;&#160;Financial&#160;Institutions&#160;–&#160;Europe&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:779px;left:823px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:795px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft052"><i>&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:796px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:649px;left:211px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">Date</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:649px;left:306px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">Company</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:649px;left:419px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">Sector</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:649px;left:498px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:642px;left:577px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">Amount&#160; &#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:655px;left:571px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">($&#160;Million)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:642px;left:629px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">Up/&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:655px;left:625px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">Down</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:635px;left:662px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">Old&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:649px;left:662px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">LTD&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:662px;left:656px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:635px;left:694px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">New&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:649px;left:695px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">LTD&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:662px;left:690px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">Rating</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:649px;left:723px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">IG/SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:649px;left:769px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft060">Country</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:204px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">8/26/20&#160;CASSINI&#160;SAS</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:413px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">Industrial&#160;SrSec/BCF/LTCFR/PDR&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:634px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">D</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:665px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">B3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:694px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:730px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:770px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">FRANCE</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:727px;left:205px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061"><chron>8/31/20</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:713px;left:249px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft064">NORDDEUTSCHE LANDESBANK&#160;GZ&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160; &#160;&#160;&#160;<br/>-FUERSTENBERG&#160;CAPITAL&#160;ERSTE&#160;<br/>GMBH</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:727px;left:414px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">Financial</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:727px;left:508px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">PS</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:727px;left:584px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">1,011</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:727px;left:634px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">D</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:727px;left:660px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">Caa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:727px;left:699px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">Ca</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:727px;left:730px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:727px;left:765px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">GERMANY</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:760px;left:208px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061"><chron>9/1/20</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:754px;left:249px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft064">NEW&#160;LOOK&#160;RETAIL&#160;HOLDINGS&#160;<br/>LIMITED</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:760px;left:413px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">Industrial</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:760px;left:475px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">SrSec/LTCFR/PDR</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:760px;left:586px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">534</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:760px;left:634px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">D</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:760px;left:665px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">Ca</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:760px;left:701px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">C</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:760px;left:730px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">SG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:760px;left:773px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft061">JERSEY</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:781px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft062"><i>Source:&#160;Moody's</i></p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">19&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:61px;left:60px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Market&#160;Data&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:88px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft067">Market&#160;Data&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:139px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft068">Spreads&#160;<br/>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:452px;left:864px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:475px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:767px;left:864px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:420px;left:838px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:374px;left:838px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">200</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:328px;left:838px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">400</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:282px;left:838px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">600</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:236px;left:838px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">800</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:420px;left:218px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:374px;left:206px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">200</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:328px;left:206px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">400</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:282px;left:206px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">600</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:236px;left:206px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">800</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:434px;left:222px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">2003&#160;2004&#160;2005&#160;2006&#160;2007&#160;2008&#160;2009&#160;2010&#160;2011&#160;2012&#160;2013&#160;2014&#160;2015&#160;2016&#160;2017&#160;2018&#160;2019&#160;2020</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:217px;left:200px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Spread&#160;(bp)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:218px;left:804px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Spread&#160;(bp)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:204px;left:240px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:204px;left:302px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:204px;left:360px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:453px;left:202px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft053"><i>Source:&#160;Moody's</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:186px;left:207px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Figure&#160;&#160;1:&#160;5-Year&#160;&#160;Median&#160;Spreads-Global&#160;Data&#160;(High&#160;Grade)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:736px;left:830px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:699px;left:830px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">400</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:663px;left:830px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">800</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:627px;left:830px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">1,200</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:591px;left:830px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">1,600</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:554px;left:830px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">2,000</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:736px;left:227px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:699px;left:215px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">400</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:663px;left:215px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">800</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:627px;left:209px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">1,200</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:591px;left:208px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">1,600</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:554px;left:207px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">2,000</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:750px;left:232px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">2003&#160;2004&#160;2005&#160;2006&#160;2007&#160;2008&#160;2009&#160;2010&#160;2011&#160;2012&#160;2013&#160;2014&#160;2015&#160;2016&#160;2017&#160;2018&#160;2019&#160;2020</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:540px;left:200px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Spread&#160;(bp)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:540px;left:812px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft033">Spread&#160;(bp)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:526px;left:236px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;Ba2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:526px;left:295px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;B2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:526px;left:348px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;Caa-C</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:766px;left:198px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft053"><i>Source:&#160;Moody's</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:506px;left:205px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Figure&#160;&#160;2:&#160;5-Year&#160;&#160;Median&#160;Spreads-Global&#160;&#160;Data&#160;(High&#160;&#160;Yield)</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">20&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:61px;left:60px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Market&#160;Data&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:87px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft065">CDS Movers&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:121px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:945px;left:864px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft065">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:170px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft071">CDS&#160;Implied&#160;Rating&#160;Rises<br/>Issuer</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:187px;left:518px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Sep.&#160;2</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:187px;left:609px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Aug.&#160;26</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:187px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Senior&#160;Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:202px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Morgan Stanley</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:202px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:202px;left:616px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:202px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:218px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Comcast&#160;Corporation</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:218px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aaa</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:218px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:218px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:233px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Chevron&#160;Corporation</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:233px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:233px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:233px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:248px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Lowe's&#160;Companies,&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:248px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aaa</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:248px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:248px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:263px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Tenet&#160;Healthcare Corporation</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:263px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:263px;left:621px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:263px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:279px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caterpillar&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:279px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aaa</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:279px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:279px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:294px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Kinder&#160;Morgan,&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:294px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:294px;left:616px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:294px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:309px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">CenterPoint&#160;Energy,&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:309px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:309px;left:616px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:309px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:324px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">United&#160;Rentals&#160;(North&#160;America),&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:324px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:324px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:324px;left:713px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:339px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">AutoZone,&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:338px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aaa</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:338px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:338px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:369px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft072">CDS&#160;Implied&#160;Rating&#160;Declines<br/>Issuer</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:385px;left:518px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Sep.&#160;2</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:385px;left:609px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Aug.&#160;26</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:385px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Senior&#160;Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:400px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">TJX&#160;Companies,&#160;Inc.&#160;(The)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:400px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:400px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:400px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:416px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Exxon&#160;Mobil&#160;Corporation</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:416px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:416px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:416px;left:713px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:431px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">John&#160;Deere&#160;Capital&#160;Corporation</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:431px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:431px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:431px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:446px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Boeing&#160;Company&#160;(The)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:446px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:446px;left:621px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:446px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:461px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><a href="http://Amazon.com">Amazon.com</a>,&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:461px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:461px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:461px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:477px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Southern&#160;Company&#160;(The)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:477px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:477px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aaa</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:477px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:492px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Abbott&#160;Laboratories</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:492px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:492px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:492px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:507px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">DTE&#160;Energy&#160;Company</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:507px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:507px;left:616px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:507px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:522px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Apache&#160;Corporation</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:522px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:522px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:522px;left:713px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:537px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Cardinal&#160;Health,&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:536px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:536px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:536px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:567px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft072">CDS&#160;Spread&#160;Increases<br/>Issuer</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:583px;left:498px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Senior&#160;Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:583px;left:613px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Sep.&#160;2</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:583px;left:703px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Aug.&#160;26</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:583px;left:789px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Spread Diff</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:599px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>K.&#160;Hovnanian Enterprises,&#160;Inc</org>.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:599px;left:520px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:599px;left:614px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,783</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:599px;left:708px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,750</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:599px;left:810px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">33</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:614px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">TJX&#160;Companies,&#160;Inc.&#160;(The)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:614px;left:526px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:614px;left:621px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">65</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:614px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">48</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:614px;left:810px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">17</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:629px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Weingarten&#160;Realty&#160;Investors</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:629px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:629px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">146</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:629px;left:713px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">133</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:629px;left:810px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">13</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:644px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><a href="http://Amazon.com">Amazon.com</a>,&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:644px;left:526px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:644px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">28</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:644px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">22</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:644px;left:813px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">6</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:659px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ventas&#160;Realty,&#160;Limited&#160;Partnership</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:659px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:659px;left:619px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">113</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:659px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">108</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:659px;left:813px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">6</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:675px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Xcel&#160;Energy&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:675px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:675px;left:621px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">79</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:675px;left:716px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">75</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:675px;left:812px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Hess&#160;Corporation</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">144</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">140</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:812px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:705px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Pitney&#160;Bowes&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:705px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:705px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">466</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:705px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">462</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:705px;left:812px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:720px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Southern&#160;Company&#160;(The)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:720px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:720px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">20</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:720px;left:716px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">17</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:720px;left:813px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:735px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Healthcare&#160;Realty&#160;Trust Incorporated</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:734px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:734px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">104</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:734px;left:713px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">101</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:734px;left:813px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:765px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft072">CDS&#160;Spread&#160;Decreases<br/>Issuer</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:781px;left:498px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Senior&#160;Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:781px;left:613px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Sep.&#160;2</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:781px;left:703px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Aug.&#160;26</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:781px;left:789px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Spread Diff</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:797px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>American Airlines&#160;Group&#160;Inc</org>.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:797px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:797px;left:615px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">2,621</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:797px;left:709px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">2,931</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:797px;left:805px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-310</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:812px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Nabors Industries,&#160;Inc</org>.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:812px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:812px;left:613px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">3,864</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:812px;left:708px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">4,156</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:812px;left:805px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-292</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:827px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Staples,&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:827px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:827px;left:614px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,454</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:827px;left:708px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,608</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:827px;left:805px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-154</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:842px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Carnival&#160;Corporation</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:842px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:842px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">797</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:842px;left:713px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">913</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:842px;left:806px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-116</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:857px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">United&#160;Airlines&#160;Holdings,&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:857px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:857px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">881</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:857px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">985</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:857px;left:804px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-104</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:873px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">United&#160;States&#160;Steel&#160;Corporation</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:873px;left:520px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:873px;left:615px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,255</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:873px;left:708px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,349</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:873px;left:807px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-94</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:888px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">United&#160;Airlines,&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:888px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:888px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">749</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:888px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">838</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:888px;left:807px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-89</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:903px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Nordstrom,&#160;Inc.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:903px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:903px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">481</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:903px;left:713px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">557</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:903px;left:808px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-77</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:918px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Talen&#160;Energy&#160;Supply,&#160;LLC</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:918px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:918px;left:615px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,236</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:918px;left:708px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,298</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:918px;left:808px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-62</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:933px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Royal&#160;Caribbean&#160;Cruises&#160;Ltd.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:932px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:932px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">989</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:932px;left:708px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,043</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:932px;left:807px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-54</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:949px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft070"><i>Source:&#160;Moody's,&#160;CMA</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:765px;left:691px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">CDS&#160;Spreads&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:171px;left:532px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">CDS&#160;Implied Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:369px;left:532px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">CDS&#160;Implied Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:567px;left:691px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">CDS&#160;Spreads&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:149px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Figure&#160;3.&#160; CDS&#160;Movers&#160;-&#160;US&#160;(<chron>August&#160;26,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;–&#160;September&#160;2,&#160;2020)</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">21&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:61px;left:60px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Market&#160;Data&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:886px;left:864px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft065">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:109px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft071">CDS&#160;Implied&#160;Rating&#160;Rises<br/>Issuer</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:127px;left:518px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Sep.&#160;2</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:127px;left:609px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Aug.&#160;26</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:127px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Senior&#160;Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:142px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Spain,&#160;Government&#160;of</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:142px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:142px;left:615px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:142px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:157px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Societe Generale</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:157px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:157px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:157px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:172px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">BNP Paribas</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:172px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:172px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:172px;left:711px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:188px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Deutsche Bank&#160;AG</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:188px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:188px;left:615px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:188px;left:714px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:203px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Banco&#160;Bilbao&#160;Vizcaya Argentaria,&#160;S.A</org>.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:203px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:203px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:203px;left:714px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:218px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Portugal,&#160;Government&#160;of</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:218px;left:526px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:218px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:218px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:233px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Credit&#160;Agricole Corporate and&#160;Investment&#160;Bank</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:233px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:233px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:233px;left:711px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:249px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>NatWest Markets&#160;N.V</org>.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:249px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:249px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:249px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:264px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Standard Chartered Bank</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:264px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:264px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:264px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:278px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Investor&#160;AB</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:277px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:277px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:277px;left:711px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:309px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft072">CDS&#160;Implied&#160;Rating&#160;Declines<br/>Issuer</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:325px;left:518px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Sep.&#160;2</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:325px;left:609px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Aug.&#160;26</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:325px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Senior&#160;Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:340px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Casino&#160;Guichard-Perrachon SA</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:340px;left:526px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ca</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:340px;left:614px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:340px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:355px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Bankia, S.A.</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:355px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:355px;left:615px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:355px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:371px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Banque Federative du&#160;Credit&#160;Mutuel</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:371px;left:526px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:371px;left:621px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:371px;left:711px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:386px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Nordea Bank&#160;Abp</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:386px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:386px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:386px;left:711px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:401px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">UniCredit&#160;Bank&#160;AG</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:401px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:401px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:401px;left:714px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:416px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Total&#160;SE</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:416px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:416px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:416px;left:711px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:432px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Deutsche Telekom&#160;AG</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:432px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:432px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:432px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:447px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Alpha&#160;Bank&#160;AE</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:447px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:447px;left:621px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:447px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:462px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">ENEL&#160;S.p.A.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:462px;left:526px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:462px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:462px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:477px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Iberdrola&#160;International&#160;B.V.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:476px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:476px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:476px;left:710px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:507px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft072">CDS&#160;Spread&#160;Increases<br/>Issuer</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:523px;left:498px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Senior&#160;Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:523px;left:612px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Sep.&#160;2</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:523px;left:703px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Aug.&#160;26</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:523px;left:789px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Spread Diff</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:538px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">PizzaExpress&#160;Financing&#160;1&#160;plc</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:538px;left:528px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">C</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:538px;left:610px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">43,533</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:538px;left:705px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">38,235</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:538px;left:802px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">5,299</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:554px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Casino&#160;Guichard-Perrachon SA</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:554px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:554px;left:613px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,027</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:554px;left:711px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">840</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:554px;left:807px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">187</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:569px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Rolls-Royce&#160;plc</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:569px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:569px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">386</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:569px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">367</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:569px;left:810px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">19</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:584px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Bankia, S.A.</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:584px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:584px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">104</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:584px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">91</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:584px;left:810px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">13</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:600px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield&#160;SE</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:600px;left:526px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:600px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">187</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:600px;left:711px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">180</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:600px;left:813px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">7</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:615px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">CaixaBank,&#160;S.A.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:615px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:615px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">85</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:615px;left:714px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">80</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:615px;left:813px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">6</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:630px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Banque Federative du&#160;Credit&#160;Mutuel</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:630px;left:523px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Aa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:630px;left:620px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">47</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:630px;left:714px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">43</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:630px;left:812px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:645px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Banco&#160;Sabadell,&#160;S.A.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:645px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:645px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">139</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:645px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">135</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:645px;left:812px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:661px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Bankinter,&#160;S.A.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:661px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Baa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:661px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">110</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:661px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">105</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:661px;left:812px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:675px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>ABB Ltd</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:674px;left:526px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">A3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:674px;left:621px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">36</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:674px;left:715px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">32</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:674px;left:812px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">4</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:705px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft072">CDS&#160;Spread&#160;Decreases<br/>Issuer</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:722px;left:498px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Senior&#160;Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:722px;left:612px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Sep.&#160;2</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:722px;left:703px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069"><chron>Aug.&#160;26</chron></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:722px;left:789px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">Spread Diff</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:737px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Selecta&#160;Group&#160;B.V.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:737px;left:520px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa3</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:737px;left:612px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">3,688</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:737px;left:707px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">4,306</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:737px;left:805px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-618</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:752px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>TUI AG</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:752px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:752px;left:614px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,199</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:752px;left:709px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,279</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:752px;left:807px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-80</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:767px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>CMA&#160;CGM S.A.</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:767px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:767px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">587</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:767px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">651</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:767px;left:807px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-64</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:783px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Jaguar&#160;Land&#160;Rover&#160;Automotive&#160;Plc</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:783px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:783px;left:617px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">678</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:783px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">733</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:783px;left:808px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-55</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:798px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Vue&#160;International&#160;Bidco&#160;plc</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:798px;left:520px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:798px;left:613px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,035</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:798px;left:707px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,084</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:798px;left:807px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-49</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:813px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Deutsche Lufthansa&#160;Aktiengesellschaft</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:813px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ba2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:813px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">275</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:813px;left:711px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">309</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:813px;left:808px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-33</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:828px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Ineos&#160;Group&#160;Holdings&#160;S.A.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:828px;left:527px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">B2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:828px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">252</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:828px;left:711px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">282</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:828px;left:807px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-30</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:844px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058"><org>Boparan Finance&#160;plc</org></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:844px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:844px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">591</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:844px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">621</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:844px;left:807px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-30</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:859px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Altice&#160;Finco&#160;S.A.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:859px;left:521px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa1</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:859px;left:618px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">297</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:859px;left:712px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">322</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:859px;left:808px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-26</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:873px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Novafives&#160;S.A.S.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:872px;left:520px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">Caa2</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:872px;left:614px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,031</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:872px;left:708px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">1,055</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:872px;left:807px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft058">-24</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:889px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft070"><i>Source:&#160;Moody's,&#160;CMA</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:705px;left:690px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">CDS&#160;Spreads&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:110px;left:531px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">CDS&#160;Implied Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:309px;left:531px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">CDS&#160;Implied Ratings</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:507px;left:690px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft069">CDS&#160;Spreads&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:88px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Figure&#160;4.&#160; CDS&#160;Movers&#160;-&#160;Europe&#160;(<chron>August&#160;26,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;–&#160;September&#160;2,&#160;2020)</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">22&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:61px;left:60px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Market&#160;Data&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:87px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft065">Issuance&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:116px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft073"><i>&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:437px;left:864px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft073"><i>&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:453px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft073"><i>&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:773px;left:864px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft073"><i>&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:386px;left:827px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:344px;left:827px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">600</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:302px;left:827px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">1,200</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:260px;left:827px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">1,800</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:218px;left:827px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">2,400</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:386px;left:224px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:344px;left:209px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">600</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:302px;left:200px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">1,200</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:260px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">1,800</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:218px;left:198px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">2,400</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:405px;left:259px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Jan&#160;Feb&#160;Mar</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:405px;left:368px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Apr</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:405px;left:410px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">May</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:405px;left:468px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Jun</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:405px;left:514px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Jul</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:405px;left:554px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Aug</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:405px;left:610px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Sep</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:405px;left:665px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Oct</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:405px;left:708px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Nov</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:405px;left:764px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Dec</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:188px;left:203px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Issuance&#160;($B)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:186px;left:783px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Issuance&#160;($B)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:187px;left:410px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">2017</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:187px;left:497px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">2018</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:187px;left:584px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">2019</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:187px;left:671px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">2020</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:427px;left:203px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft075"><i>Source:&#160;&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:428px;left:246px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft070"><i>Moody's&#160; /&#160;Dealogic</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:140px;left:210px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft076">Figure&#160;5.&#160;Market&#160;Cumulative Issuance&#160;-&#160;Corporate &amp;&#160;Financial&#160;Institutions:&#160;USD&#160;Denominated</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:727px;left:829px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:829px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">200</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:653px;left:829px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">400</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:617px;left:829px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">600</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:580px;left:829px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">800</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:543px;left:829px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">1,000</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:727px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">0</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:690px;left:208px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">200</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:653px;left:207px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">400</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:617px;left:207px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">600</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:580px;left:207px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">800</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:543px;left:198px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">1,000</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:258px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Jan&#160;Feb&#160;Mar</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:369px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Apr</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:411px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">May</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:470px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Jun</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:517px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Jul</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:558px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Aug</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:615px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Sep</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:670px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Oct</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:714px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Nov</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:746px;left:771px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Dec</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:514px;left:206px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Issuance&#160;($B)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:514px;left:783px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">Issuance&#160;($B)</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:517px;left:416px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">2017</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:517px;left:502px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">2018</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:517px;left:589px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">2019</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:517px;left:677px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">2020</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:763px;left:202px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft075"><i>Source:&#160;&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:764px;left:245px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft070"><i>Moody's&#160;/&#160;Dealogic</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:479px;left:209px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft076">Figure&#160;6.&#160;Market&#160;Cumulative Issuance&#160;-&#160;Corporate&#160;&amp;&#160;Financial&#160;Institutions:&#160;Euro&#160;&#160;Denominated</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">23&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:61px;left:60px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft011">Market&#160;Data&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:391px;left:864px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft07">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:394px;left:1080px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft073"><i>&#160;</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:135px;left:394px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Investment-Grade</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:135px;left:588px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">High-Yield</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:135px;left:774px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Total*</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:155px;left:423px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Amount</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:155px;left:596px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Amount</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:155px;left:768px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Amount</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:173px;left:440px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">$B</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:173px;left:613px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">$B</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:173px;left:786px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">$B</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:265px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Weekly</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:427px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">41.377</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:600px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">10.525</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:192px;left:772px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">53.760</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:212px;left:247px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Year-to-Date</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:212px;left:418px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">1,573.941</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:212px;left:596px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">387.149</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:212px;left:761px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">2,028.340</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:267px;left:394px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Investment-Grade</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:267px;left:588px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">High-Yield</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:267px;left:774px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Total*</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:287px;left:423px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Amount</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:287px;left:596px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Amount</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:287px;left:768px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Amount</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:304px;left:440px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">$B</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:304px;left:613px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">$B</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:304px;left:786px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">$B</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:324px;left:265px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Weekly</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:324px;left:430px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">0.596</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:324px;left:601px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">0.000</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:324px;left:776px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">0.596</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:344px;left:247px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">Year-to-Date</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:344px;left:421px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">560.744</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:344px;left:600px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">72.373</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:344px;left:767px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft077">655.808</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:365px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft074">*&#160;Difference&#160;represents issuance&#160;with&#160;pending&#160;ratings.</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:385px;left:199px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft075"><i>Source:&#160;Moody's/&#160;Dealogic</i></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:115px;left:560px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft078">USD&#160;Denominated</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:247px;left:560px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft078">Euro&#160;Denominated</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:92px;left:200px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft076">Figure 7.&#160;Issuance:&#160;Corporate &amp;&#160;Financial&#160;Institutions</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:223px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:31px;left:250px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft00">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1136px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:55px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">24&#160;&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:26px;left:687px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft04"><b>CAPITAL&#160;MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:40px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:55px;left:524px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:90px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft079">Moody’s&#160;Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research recent&#160;publications&#160;&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:135px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft081"><a href="http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1241727">Markets Avoid Great&#160;Recession’s Calamities&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1240950">Liquidity&#160;Surge&#160;Hints&#160;of&#160;More&#160;Upside&#160;Surprises&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1240102">Unprecedented Stimulus&#160;Lessens&#160;the&#160;Blow&#160;from&#160;Real&#160;GDP’s&#160;Record&#160;Dive&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1239249">Ultra-Low&#160;Bond Yields&#160;Buoy&#160;Corporate&#160;Borrowing&#160;(<org>Capital Markets Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1237222">Record-High&#160;Savings&#160;Rate&#160;and&#160;Ample&#160;Liquidity&#160;May&#160;Fund&#160;an Upside&#160;Surprise&#160;(<org>Capital Markets&#160;Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1235538">Unprecedented&#160;Demographic Change Will&#160;Shape Credit&#160;Markets&#160;Through&#160;2030&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1234558">Net&#160;High-Yield&#160;Downgrades Drop&#160;from&#160;Dreadful&#160;Readings of&#160;March&#160;and April&#160;(<org>Capital&#160;Markets Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1232454">Long&#160;Stay&#160;by&#160;Low&#160;Rates&#160;Fuels&#160;Corporate Debt and&#160;Equity&#160;Rallies&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1234794">Why&#160;Industrial&#160;(Warehouse)&#160;Will&#160;(Likely)&#160;Fare&#160;Better&#160;</a>(Capital&#160;Markers&#160;Research)&#160;<br/><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1234559">CECL&#160;Adoption&#160;and&#160;Q1&#160;Results Amid COVID-19&#160;</a>(<org>Capital Markets&#160;Research</org>)&#160;<br/><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_1234175">Continued&#160;Signs of&#160;Weakness in&#160;US&#160;Non-Agency&#160;RMBS&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_1233919">COVID-19&#160;and Distress&#160;in&#160;CMBS&#160;Markets&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1231194">Record-Fast Money&#160;Growth&#160;Eases&#160;Market&#160;Anxiety&#160;(<org>Capital Markets&#160;Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1230295">Default&#160;Outlook: Markets&#160;Appear Less&#160;Worried&#160;than&#160;Credit&#160;Analysts&#160;(<org>Capital&#160;Markets Research</org>)&#160;</a></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:511px;left:196px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft082"><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1229126">High&#160;Technology&#160;Is&#160;North&#160;America’s&#160;Biggest&#160;Corporate&#160;Borrower (Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1228055">Troubling&#160;Default&#160;Outlook&#160;Warns&#160;Against Complacency&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1226792">Fed&#160;Intervention Sparks&#160;Back-to-Back&#160;Record&#160;Highs for&#160;IG&#160;Issuance&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1225812">April’s Financial&#160;Markets&#160;Transcend Miserable&#160;Economic&#160;Data&#160;(<org>Capital Markets&#160;Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1224566">Speculation Powers&#160;Recent&#160;Rallies by&#160;Corporate&#160;Bonds&#160;(<org>Capital Markets Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1223538">Fed&#160;Extends Support&#160;to Some&#160;High-Yield&#160;Issuers (<org>Capital Markets Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1222313">Ample&#160;Liquidity&#160;Shores Up&#160;Investment-Grade&#160;Credits&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1221174">Unlike&#160;2008-2009,&#160;Few Speak&#160;of&#160;a&#160;Credit&#160;Crunch (Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1219820">Equity&#160;Market&#160;Volatility&#160;Resembles&#160;2008’s&#160;Final&#160;Quarter&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1218552">High-Yield’s&#160;Default Risk&#160;Metrics&#160;Still&#160;Trail Worst&#160;Stretch&#160;of&#160;Great Recession&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1217571">Ultra-Low&#160;Treasury&#160;Yields&#160;and&#160;Very&#160;High&#160;VIX&#160;Warn of&#160;Credit&#160;Stress&#160;Ahead (<org>Capital Markets&#160;Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1216475">Fed&#160;Rate&#160;Cuts&#160;May&#160;Fall&#160;Short of Stabilizing&#160;Markets&#160;(<org>Capital Markets&#160;Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1215556">Optimism&#160;Rules&#160;Despite&#160;Unfinished&#160;Slowing&#160;of&#160;Core&#160;Business&#160;Sales&#160;(<org>Capital&#160;Markets Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1214577">Baa-Rated&#160;Corporates&#160;Fared&#160;Better&#160;in&#160;2019&#160;(<org>Capital Markets&#160;Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1213737">Richly&#160;Priced&#160;Stocks Fall Short&#160;of&#160;1999-2000’s&#160;Gross&#160;Overvaluation&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1212580">Coronavirus&#160;May&#160;Be&#160;a Black&#160;Swan&#160;Like&#160;No&#160;Other&#160;(<org>Capital Markets&#160;Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1211724">How&#160;Corporate&#160;Credit&#160;Might&#160;Burst&#160;an&#160;Equity&#160;Bubble (Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1210744">Positive&#160;Earnings&#160;Outlook&#160;Requires&#160;Flat to&#160;Lower&#160;Interest&#160;Rates&#160;(Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1209866">Overvalued&#160;Equities&#160;Increase&#160;Corporate&#160;Credit’s Downside&#160;Risk&#160;(<org>Capital Markets&#160;Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1208173">High-Yield&#160;Rating Changes&#160;Say&#160;High-Yield&#160;Bond Spread&#160;Is Too&#160;Thin&#160;(<org>Capital&#160;Markets Research</org>)&#160;<br/></a><a href="http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1206534">Return of&#160;Christmas Past&#160;Does&#160;Not&#160;Impend (Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research)&#160;</a></p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:109px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029"><chron>SEPTEMBER&#160;3,&#160;2020</chron>&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1144px;left:568px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft029">CAPITAL MARKETS&#160;RESEARCH&#160;&#160;/ &#160;MARKET&#160;OUTLOOK&#160;&#160;/ &#160;<a href="http://MOODYS.COM">MOODYS.COM</a>&#160;</p>

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<p style="position:absolute;top:87px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">©&#160;2020&#160;Moody’s Corporation,&#160;Moody’s <org>Investors Service,&#160;Inc</org>.,&#160;Moody’s Analytics,&#160;Inc.&#160;and/or&#160;their&#160;licensors and affiliates (collectively, “MOODY’S”). All&#160;rights&#160;reserved.&#160;<br/><b>CREDIT RATINGS&#160;ISSUED BY&#160;MOODY'S&#160;INVESTORS&#160;SERVICE,&#160;INC.&#160;AND ITS&#160;RATINGS&#160;AFFILIATES&#160;(“MIS”)&#160;ARE&#160;MOODY’S&#160;CURRENT OPINIONS&#160;OF&#160;THE&#160;RELATIVE&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:117px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>FUTURE&#160;CREDIT RISK&#160;OF ENTITIES,&#160;CREDIT COMMITMENTS,&#160;OR&#160;DEBT OR&#160;DEBT-LIKE&#160;SECURITIES,&#160;AND&#160;MOODY’S&#160;PUBLICATIONS&#160;MAY&#160;INCLUDE&#160;MOODY’S&#160;CURRENT&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:130px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>OPINIONS&#160;OF THE&#160;RELATIVE&#160;FUTURE&#160;CREDIT RISK&#160;OF ENTITIES,&#160;CREDIT COMMITMENTS,&#160;OR&#160;DEBT OR&#160;DEBT-LIKE&#160;SECURITIES.&#160;MOODY’S&#160;DEFINES&#160;CREDIT RISK&#160;AS&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:143px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>THE&#160;RISK&#160;THAT AN&#160;ENTITY&#160;MAY&#160;NOT MEET ITS&#160;CONTRACTUAL&#160;FINANCIAL&#160;OBLIGATIONS&#160;AS&#160;THEY&#160;COME&#160;DUE&#160;AND ANY&#160;ESTIMATED FINANCIAL&#160;LOSS&#160;IN&#160;THE&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:156px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>EVENT OF DEFAULT OR&#160;IMPAIRMENT.&#160;SEE&#160;MOODY’S&#160;RATING&#160;SYMBOLS&#160;AND DEFINITIONS&#160;PUBLICATION&#160;FOR&#160;INFORMATION&#160;ON&#160;THE&#160;TYPES&#160;OF CONTRACTUAL&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:169px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>FINANCIAL&#160;OBLIGATIONS&#160;ADDRESSED BY&#160;MOODY’S&#160;RATINGS.&#160;CREDIT RATINGS&#160;DO&#160;NOT&#160;ADDRESS&#160;ANY&#160;OTHER&#160;RISK,&#160;INCLUDING&#160;BUT NOT&#160;LIMITED TO:&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:182px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>LIQUIDITY&#160;RISK,&#160;MARKET VALUE&#160;RISK,&#160;OR&#160;PRICE&#160;VOLATILITY.&#160;CREDIT RATINGS&#160;AND MOODY’S&#160;OPINIONS&#160;INCLUDED IN&#160;MOODY’S&#160;PUBLICATIONS&#160;ARE&#160;NOT&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:194px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>STATEMENTS&#160;OF CURRENT OR&#160;HISTORICAL&#160;FACT.&#160;MOODY’S&#160;PUBLICATIONS&#160;MAY&#160;ALSO INCLUDE&#160;QUANTITATIVE&#160;MODEL-BASED ESTIMATES&#160;OF CREDIT RISK&#160;AND&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:207px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>RELATED OPINIONS&#160;OR&#160;COMMENTARY&#160;PUBLISHED&#160;BY&#160;MOODY’S&#160;ANALYTICS,&#160;INC.&#160;CREDIT RATINGS&#160;AND MOODY’S&#160;PUBLICATIONS&#160;DO NOT CONSTITUTE&#160;OR&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:220px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>PROVIDE&#160;INVESTMENT OR&#160;FINANCIAL&#160;ADVICE,&#160;AND&#160;CREDIT RATINGS&#160;AND MOODY’S&#160;PUBLICATIONS&#160;ARE&#160;NOT AND DO NOT PROVIDE&#160;RECOMMENDATIONS&#160;TO&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:233px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>PURCHASE,&#160;SELL,&#160;OR&#160;HOLD PARTICULAR&#160;SECURITIES.&#160;NEITHER&#160;CREDIT&#160;RATINGS&#160;NOR&#160;MOODY’S&#160;PUBLICATIONS&#160;COMMENT ON&#160;THE&#160;SUITABILITY&#160;OF AN&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:246px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>INVESTMENT FOR&#160;ANY&#160;PARTICULAR&#160;INVESTOR.&#160;MOODY’S&#160;ISSUES&#160;ITS&#160;CREDIT RATINGS&#160;AND&#160;PUBLISHES&#160;MOODY’S&#160;PUBLICATIONS&#160;WITH&#160;THE&#160;EXPECTATION&#160;AND&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:259px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft083"><b>UNDERSTANDING&#160;THAT EACH&#160;INVESTOR&#160;WILL,&#160;WITH&#160;DUE&#160;CARE,&#160;MAKE&#160;ITS&#160;OWN&#160;STUDY&#160;AND EVALUATION&#160;OF EACH&#160;SECURITY&#160;THAT IS&#160;UNDER&#160;CONSIDERATION&#160;</b></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:272px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft086"><b>FOR&#160;PURCHASE,&#160;HOLDING,&#160;OR&#160;SALE.&#160;&#160;<br/></b>MOODY’S&#160;CREDIT&#160;RATINGS&#160;AND&#160;MOODY’S&#160;PUBLICATIONS&#160;ARE NOT&#160;INTENDED&#160;FOR&#160;USE BY&#160;RETAIL INVESTORS&#160;AND&#160;IT&#160;WOULD&#160;BE&#160;RECKLESS&#160;AND&#160;INAPPROPRIATE FOR&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:302px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">RETAIL INVESTORS&#160;TO&#160;USE MOODY’S&#160;CREDIT&#160;RATINGS&#160;OR MOODY’S&#160;PUBLICATIONS&#160;WHEN MAKING&#160;AN INVESTMENT&#160;DECISION.&#160;IF&#160;IN DOUBT&#160;YOU SHOULD&#160;CONTACT&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:315px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">YOUR FINANCIAL OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISER.&#160;<br/>ALL INFORMATION&#160;CONTAINED&#160;HEREIN IS&#160;PROTECTED&#160;BY&#160;LAW,&#160;INCLUDING&#160;BUT&#160;NOT&#160;LIMITED&#160;TO,&#160;COPYRIGHT&#160;LAW,&#160;AND&#160;NONE&#160;OF&#160;SUCH&#160;INFORMATION&#160;MAY&#160;BE&#160;COPIED&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:345px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED,&#160;REPACKAGED,&#160;FURTHER TRANSMITTED,&#160;TRANSFERRED,&#160;DISSEMINATED,&#160;REDISTRIBUTED&#160;OR RESOLD,&#160;OR STORED&#160;FOR SUBSEQUENT&#160;USE FOR&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:358px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">ANY&#160;SUCH&#160;PURPOSE,&#160;IN&#160;WHOLE OR IN&#160;PART,&#160;IN ANY&#160;FORM&#160;OR MANNER OR BY&#160;ANY&#160;MEANS&#160;WHATSOEVER,&#160;BY&#160;ANY&#160;PERSON&#160;WITHOUT&#160;MOODY’S&#160;PRIOR&#160;WRITTEN&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:371px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">CONSENT.&#160;<br/>CREDIT&#160;RATINGS&#160;AND&#160;MOODY’S&#160;PUBLICATIONS&#160;ARE NOT&#160;INTENDED&#160;FOR USE BY&#160;ANY&#160;PERSON&#160;AS&#160;A&#160;BENCHMARK&#160;AS&#160;THAT&#160;TERM&#160;IS&#160;DEFINED&#160;FOR REGULATORY&#160;PURPOSES&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:401px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">AND&#160;MUST&#160;NOT&#160;BE&#160;USED&#160;IN ANY&#160;WAY&#160;THAT&#160;COULD&#160;RESULT&#160;IN THEM&#160;BEING&#160;CONSIDERED&#160;A&#160;BENCHMARK.&#160;<br/>All&#160;information&#160;contained&#160;herein&#160;is&#160;obtained&#160;by&#160;MOODY’S&#160;from&#160;sources&#160;believed&#160;by&#160;it&#160;to&#160;be accurate&#160;and&#160;reliable. Because of&#160;the&#160;possibility of&#160;human or&#160;mechanical error&#160;as&#160;well as&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:431px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">other&#160;factors,&#160;however,&#160;all&#160;information&#160;contained herein&#160;is&#160;provided “AS IS”&#160;without warranty&#160;of&#160;any&#160;kind.&#160;MOODY'S adopts all&#160;necessary&#160;measures so&#160;that the&#160;information&#160;it uses&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:444px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">in&#160;assigning&#160;a&#160;credit&#160;rating&#160;is&#160;of&#160;sufficient&#160;quality&#160;and&#160;from&#160;sources&#160;MOODY'S&#160;considers&#160;to&#160;be reliable including, when&#160;appropriate, independent&#160;third-party&#160;sources. However,&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:457px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">MOODY’S&#160;is&#160;not&#160;an&#160;auditor&#160;and&#160;cannot&#160;in every instance&#160;independently verify or&#160;validate&#160;information received&#160;in&#160;the&#160;rating process&#160;or&#160;in&#160;preparing&#160;the&#160;Moody’s&#160;publications.&#160;&#160;<br/>To&#160;the&#160;extent permitted by&#160;law,&#160;MOODY’S and&#160;its&#160;directors,&#160;officers,&#160;employees,&#160;agents,&#160;representatives,&#160;licensors and suppliers&#160;disclaim&#160;liability&#160;to&#160;any person or&#160;entity&#160;for&#160;any&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:487px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">indirect,&#160;special,&#160;consequential,&#160;or&#160;incidental&#160;losses&#160;or&#160;damages&#160;whatsoever&#160;arising from or&#160;in connection with&#160;the&#160;information contained&#160;herein or&#160;the&#160;use&#160;of&#160;or&#160;inability to&#160;use&#160;any&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:500px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">such&#160;information, even&#160;if&#160;MOODY’S&#160;or&#160;any&#160;of&#160;its&#160;directors, officers, employees, agents, representatives, licensors&#160;or&#160;suppliers is advised in&#160;advance&#160;of&#160;the&#160;possibility&#160;of&#160;such&#160;losses&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:513px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">or&#160;damages,&#160;including but&#160;not&#160;limited&#160;to:&#160;(a)&#160;any loss&#160;of&#160;present&#160;or&#160;prospective&#160;profits&#160;or&#160;(b)&#160;any loss&#160;or&#160;damage&#160;arising&#160;where&#160;the&#160;relevant financial&#160;instrument is not the&#160;subject of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:526px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">a particular&#160;credit rating&#160;assigned&#160;by&#160;MOODY’S.&#160;<br/>To&#160;the&#160;extent permitted by&#160;law,&#160;MOODY’S and&#160;its&#160;directors,&#160;officers,&#160;employees,&#160;agents,&#160;representatives,&#160;licensors and suppliers&#160;disclaim&#160;liability for&#160;any direct&#160;or&#160;compensatory&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:556px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">losses or&#160;damages caused to&#160;any&#160;person&#160;or&#160;entity,&#160;including&#160;but&#160;not&#160;limited&#160;to&#160;by any negligence&#160;(but&#160;excluding&#160;fraud,&#160;willful misconduct&#160;or&#160;any other&#160;type&#160;of&#160;liability&#160;that,&#160;for&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:569px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">avoidance&#160;of&#160;doubt,&#160;by law cannot&#160;be&#160;excluded)&#160;on&#160;the&#160;part&#160;of,&#160;or&#160;any contingency within&#160;or&#160;beyond&#160;the&#160;control&#160;of, MOODY’S&#160;or&#160;any&#160;of&#160;its&#160;directors, officers, employees, agents,&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:581px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">representatives,&#160;licensors&#160;or&#160;suppliers,&#160;arising&#160;from&#160;or&#160;in&#160;connection&#160;with&#160;the&#160;information&#160;contained&#160;herein&#160;or&#160;the&#160;use&#160;of&#160;or&#160;inability to&#160;use&#160;any&#160;such&#160;information.&#160;<br/>NO&#160;WARRANTY,&#160;EXPRESS&#160;OR&#160;IMPLIED,&#160;AS&#160;TO&#160;THE ACCURACY,&#160;TIMELINESS,&#160;COMPLETENESS,&#160;MERCHANTABILITY&#160;OR FITNESS&#160;FOR ANY&#160;PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF&#160;ANY&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:612px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">CREDIT&#160;RATING&#160;OR&#160;OTHER OPINION&#160;OR INFORMATION&#160;IS&#160;GIVEN OR MADE BY&#160;MOODY’S&#160;IN ANY&#160;FORM&#160;OR MANNER WHATSOEVER.&#160;<br/>Moody’s&#160;<org>Investors&#160;Service, Inc.</org>,&#160;a&#160;wholly-owned credit rating&#160;agency&#160;subsidiary&#160;of&#160;Moody’s Corporation&#160;(“MCO”),&#160;hereby&#160;discloses&#160;that most&#160;issuers of&#160;debt&#160;securities (including&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:642px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">corporate&#160;and municipal&#160;bonds,&#160;debentures,&#160;notes and&#160;commercial&#160;paper)&#160;and preferred stock&#160;rated&#160;by&#160;Moody’s <org>Investors&#160;Service, Inc.</org> have, prior&#160;to&#160;assignment&#160;of&#160;any&#160;rating,&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:655px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">agreed to&#160;pay&#160;to&#160;Moody’s <org>Investors Service,&#160;Inc</org>.&#160;for&#160;ratings opinions and services&#160;rendered by&#160;it&#160;fees ranging&#160;from&#160;<money>$1,000</money>&#160;to&#160;approximately&#160;<money>$2,700,000</money>.&#160;MCO&#160;and&#160;MIS&#160;also&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:668px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">maintain&#160;policies&#160;and&#160;procedures to&#160;address the&#160;independence&#160;of&#160;MIS’s ratings and rating&#160;processes.&#160;Information&#160;regarding&#160;certain&#160;affiliations that may&#160;exist&#160;between&#160;directors&#160;of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:681px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">MCO&#160;and rated entities,&#160;and between&#160;entities&#160;who&#160;hold ratings from&#160;MIS and&#160;have&#160;also&#160;publicly&#160;reported to&#160;the&#160;SEC&#160;an&#160;ownership&#160;interest in&#160;MCO&#160;of&#160;more&#160;than&#160;5%,&#160;is posted&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:693px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">annually a<a href="http://www.moodys.com/">t&#160;</a></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:693px;left:113px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft084"><a href="http://www.moodys.com/"><a href="http://www.moodys.com">www.moodys.com</a></a></p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:693px;left:197px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01"><a href="http://www.moodys.com/">&#160;u</a>nder&#160;the&#160;heading&#160;“Investor&#160;Relations&#160;—&#160;Corporate Governance&#160;—&#160;Director&#160;and&#160;Shareholder&#160;Affiliation&#160;Policy.”&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:711px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Additional&#160;terms&#160;for&#160;Australia&#160;only:&#160;Any&#160;publication&#160;into&#160;Australia&#160;of&#160;this document is pursuant&#160;to&#160;the&#160;Australian&#160;Financial&#160;Services License&#160;of&#160;MOODY’S affiliate,&#160;Moody’s Investors&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:724px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Service&#160;Pty&#160;Limited&#160;ABN&#160;61&#160;003&#160;399&#160;657AFSL&#160;336969&#160;and/or&#160;Moody’s Analytics Australia&#160;Pty&#160;Ltd ABN&#160;94 105&#160;136&#160;972&#160;AFSL&#160;383569&#160;(as applicable).&#160;This document is&#160;intended&#160;to&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:736px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">be&#160;provided&#160;only to&#160;“wholesale&#160;clients”&#160;within the&#160;meaning&#160;of&#160;section 761G&#160;of&#160;the&#160;Corporations&#160;Act&#160;2001.&#160;By continuing&#160;to&#160;access this document from&#160;within&#160;Australia,&#160;you&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:749px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">represent to&#160;MOODY’S that&#160;you&#160;are,&#160;or&#160;are&#160;accessing&#160;the&#160;document as a&#160;representative&#160;of,&#160;a&#160;“wholesale&#160;client”&#160;and that&#160;neither&#160;you&#160;nor&#160;the&#160;entity&#160;you&#160;represent&#160;will&#160;directly or&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:762px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">indirectly&#160;disseminate&#160;this&#160;document or&#160;its contents&#160;to&#160;“retail&#160;clients”&#160;within&#160;the&#160;meaning&#160;of&#160;section&#160;761G&#160;of&#160;the&#160;Corporations Act 2001.&#160;MOODY’S credit&#160;rating&#160;is an&#160;opinion&#160;as to&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:775px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">the&#160;creditworthiness&#160;of&#160;a&#160;debt obligation&#160;of&#160;the&#160;issuer,&#160;not on&#160;the&#160;equity&#160;securities of&#160;the&#160;issuer&#160;or&#160;any&#160;form&#160;of&#160;security&#160;that is available&#160;to&#160;retail&#160;investors.&#160;<br/>Additional terms&#160;for&#160;Japan only:&#160;Moody's&#160;Japan K.K.&#160;(“MJKK”)&#160;is&#160;a&#160;wholly-owned&#160;credit&#160;rating&#160;agency&#160;subsidiary&#160;of&#160;Moody's&#160;Group&#160;Japan&#160;G.K.,&#160;which&#160;is&#160;wholly-owned by&#160;Moody’s&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:805px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Overseas&#160;Holdings&#160;Inc.,&#160;a&#160;wholly-owned subsidiary&#160;of&#160;MCO.&#160;Moody’s SF&#160;Japan&#160;K.K.&#160;(“MSFJ”) is&#160;a&#160;wholly-owned&#160;credit&#160;rating agency&#160;subsidiary of&#160;MJKK.&#160;MSFJ&#160;is&#160;not&#160;a&#160;Nationally&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:818px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Recognized Statistical&#160;Rating&#160;Organization&#160;(“NRSRO”).&#160;Therefore,&#160;credit ratings&#160;assigned by&#160;MSFJ&#160;are&#160;Non-NRSRO&#160;Credit Ratings.&#160;Non-NRSRO&#160;Credit Ratings are&#160;assigned&#160;by an&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:831px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">entity&#160;that is&#160;not a&#160;NRSRO&#160;and,&#160;consequently,&#160;the&#160;rated obligation&#160;will&#160;not qualify&#160;for&#160;certain&#160;types&#160;of&#160;treatment under&#160;U.S.&#160;laws. MJKK&#160;and&#160;MSFJ&#160;are credit&#160;rating&#160;agencies&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:844px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">registered&#160;with&#160;the&#160;Japan&#160;Financial&#160;Services Agency&#160;and&#160;their&#160;registration&#160;numbers&#160;are&#160;FSA&#160;Commissioner&#160;(Ratings)&#160;No.&#160;2&#160;and&#160;3&#160;respectively.&#160;<br/>MJKK&#160;or&#160;MSFJ&#160;(as applicable)&#160;hereby&#160;disclose&#160;that most issuers of&#160;debt securities&#160;(including&#160;corporate&#160;and municipal&#160;bonds,&#160;debentures, notes&#160;and&#160;commercial&#160;paper)&#160;and&#160;preferred&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:874px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">stock&#160;rated&#160;by&#160;MJKK&#160;or&#160;MSFJ&#160;(as&#160;applicable)&#160;have,&#160;prior&#160;to&#160;assignment&#160;of&#160;any&#160;rating,&#160;agreed&#160;to&#160;pay&#160;to&#160;MJKK&#160;or&#160;MSFJ&#160;(as&#160;applicable)&#160;for&#160;ratings opinions and services rendered by&#160;its&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:887px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">fees&#160;ranging&#160;from&#160;<money>JPY125,000</money> to&#160;approximately&#160;<money>JPY250,000,000</money>.&#160;<br/>MJKK&#160;and&#160;MSFJ&#160;also&#160;maintain&#160;policies and procedures to&#160;address Japanese&#160;regulatory&#160;requirements.&#160;<br/>For&#160;Publications Issued by&#160;Moody’s <org>Capital&#160;Markets Research,&#160;Inc</org>.&#160;only:&#160;<br/>The&#160;statements contained in&#160;this research&#160;report are&#160;based&#160;solely&#160;upon&#160;the&#160;opinions of&#160;Moody’s Capital&#160;Markets&#160;Research,&#160;Inc.&#160;and the&#160;data&#160;and information&#160;available&#160;to&#160;the&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:952px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">authors at the&#160;time&#160;of&#160;publication&#160;of&#160;this report.&#160;There&#160;is no&#160;assurance&#160;that any&#160;predicted results will&#160;actually&#160;occur.&#160;Past&#160;performance&#160;is no&#160;guarantee&#160;of&#160;future&#160;results.&#160;<br/>The&#160;analysis in&#160;this report&#160;has&#160;not&#160;been made&#160;available&#160;to&#160;any issuer&#160;prior&#160;to&#160;publication.&#160;<br/>When&#160;making&#160;an&#160;investment&#160;decision,&#160;investors should use&#160;additional&#160;sources of&#160;information&#160;and consult&#160;with&#160;their&#160;investment&#160;advisor. Investing&#160;in&#160;securities&#160;involves&#160;certain&#160;risks&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1000px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft085">including&#160;possible&#160;fluctuations in&#160;investment return&#160;and&#160;loss of&#160;principal.&#160;Investing&#160;in&#160;bonds&#160;presents&#160;additional&#160;risks,&#160;including&#160;changes in&#160;interest rates and&#160;credit risk.&#160;<br/><org>Moody's Capital&#160;Markets Research,&#160;Inc</org>.,&#160;is a&#160;subsidiary&#160;of&#160;MCO.&#160;Please&#160;note&#160;that&#160;Moody’s Analytics,&#160;Inc.,&#160;an&#160;affiliate&#160;of&#160;Moody’s <org>Capital&#160;Markets Research,&#160;Inc</org>.&#160;and a&#160;subsidiary&#160;of&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1030px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">MCO,&#160;provides&#160;a wide&#160;range&#160;of&#160;research&#160;and&#160;analytical&#160;products&#160;and&#160;services&#160;to&#160;corporations&#160;and&#160;participants&#160;in&#160;the&#160;financial&#160;markets.&#160;Customers of&#160;Moody’s&#160;Analytics,&#160;Inc.&#160;may&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1043px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">include&#160;companies&#160;mentioned in&#160;this&#160;report.&#160;Please&#160;be&#160;advised that a&#160;conflict&#160;may&#160;exist and that any&#160;investment&#160;decisions you&#160;make&#160;are&#160;your&#160;own responsibility.&#160;The&#160;Moody’s&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1055px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01">Analytics logo&#160;is&#160;used on&#160;certain&#160;Moody’s <org>Capital&#160;Markets Research,&#160;Inc</org>.&#160;products&#160;for&#160;marketing&#160;purposes only.&#160;Moody’s&#160;Analytics,&#160;Inc.&#160;is a&#160;separate&#160;company&#160;from&#160;Moody’s Capital&#160;</p>

<p style="position:absolute;top:1068px;left:61px;white-space:nowrap" class="ft01"><org>Markets&#160;Research, Inc.</org>&#160;</p>

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