Ten months into 2013, gold’s tale of woe is at this point well-documented. Despite ongoing easing by the Federal Reserve, gold prices have slid as investors have preferred stocks and other riskier assets to bullion.
At the ETF level, the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) , which once upon a time was briefly the largest ETF in the world, is down 22% year-to-date. Two gold ETFs are found among the 10 worst ETFs in terms of 2013 outflows. [Silver ETFs Trouncing Gold Rivals]
GLD now resides 6.3% below its 200-day moving average, a landmark the ETF has not traded above since February, but the ETF is trading slightly above its 20- and 50-day lines. With gold headed toward its worst loss since 1997, gold bugs are looking for any signs of positivity even as investors continue to pulls cash from bullion-backed ETFs. [Gold ETF Outflows Accelerate in October]
Help could be on the way. Rather, a major bounce to take gold prices back to $1,500 an ounce could be on the way according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Head of Global Technical Strategy MacNeil Curry.
“We have changed our view on gold from bearish to bullish. The impulsive gains from the 1251 low of Oct-15 and break of the 2m downtrend (confirmed on the break of 1330) say a medium term base and bullish turn is unfolding. We look for an ultimate break of the 1433 highs of Aug-28, with POTENTIAL for a push to 1500/1533 long term resistance,” Curry said in note to clients obtained by CNBC.
Curry advised buying a dip to $1,309 per ounce and acknowledge his call could be wrong if gold trades down to the $1,250 area, a price point at which markets could again fret about the profitability of already downtrodden gold miners. [Gold Miners ETF: A Falling Knife]
Curry sees it next going towards $1,433 and potentially as much as $1,500 to $1,533, but a move to $1,375 an ounce could be needed as confirmation, CNBC reported. Thursday’s high for Comex gold for December delivery was $1,358.80 an ounce.
SPDR Gold Shares
The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.