It's been a sad week for AIXTRON SE (ETR:AIXA), who've watched their investment drop 13% to €9.15 in the week since the company reported its full-year result. AIXTRON reported €260m in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €0.29 beat expectations, being 9.1% higher than what analysts expected. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see analysts' latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for AIXTRON from eight analysts is for revenues of €283.4m in 2020, which is a decent 9.2% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to accumulate 9.9% to €0.32. In the lead-up to this report, analysts had been modelling revenues of €280.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.32 in 2020. So it's pretty clear that, although analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of €11.08, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AIXTRON at €13.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €8.20. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await AIXTRON shareholders.
Further, we can compare these estimates to past performance, and see how AIXTRON forecasts compare to the wider market's forecast performance. We can infer from the latest estimates that analysts are expecting a continuation of AIXTRON's historical trends, as next year's forecast 9.2% revenue growth is roughly in line with 9.3% annual revenue growth over the past five years. Compare this with the wider market, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 6.6% next year. So it's pretty clear that AIXTRON is forecast to grow substantially faster than its market.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion from these results is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with analysts still expecting the business to grow faster than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for AIXTRON going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
We also provide an overview of the AIXTRON Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at email@example.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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