It's been a good week for Koninklijke Vopak N.V. (AMS:VPK) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 3.5% to €50.82. Revenues were €1.3b, approximately in line with what analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €4.47, an impressive 27% ahead of estimates. Analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what analysts' statutory forecasts suggest is in store for next year.
Following last week's earnings report, Koninklijke Vopak's five analysts are forecasting 2020 revenues to be €1.27b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 36% to €2.86 in the same period. Before this earnings report, analysts had been forecasting revenues of €1.28b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.82 in 2020. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.
Analysts reconfirmed their price target of €51.71, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target just an average of individual analyst targets, so - considering that the price target changed, it would be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Koninklijke Vopak, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €56.00 and the most bearish at €45.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or that analysts have a clear view on its prospects.
Zooming out to look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up both against past performance, and against industry growth estimates. It's also worth noting that the years of declining sales look to have come to an end, with the forecast for flat revenues next year. Historically, Koninklijke Vopak's sales have shrunk approximately 2.1% annually over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the wider market, which suggest that (in aggregate) market revenues are expected to grow 2.6% next year. Although Koninklijke Vopak's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that analysts are still expecting it to grow slower than the wider market.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion from these results is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with analysts holding earnings per share steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although analyst forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Koninklijke Vopak analysts - going out to 2021, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It might also be worth considering whether Koninklijke Vopak's debt load is appropriate, using our debt analysis tools on the Simply Wall St platform, here.
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