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Results: Sierra Bancorp Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

·3 min read

Sierra Bancorp (NASDAQ:BSRR) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Sierra Bancorp delivered a significant beat to revenue and earnings per share (EPS) expectations, with sales hitting US$35m, some 12% above indicated. Statutory EPS were US$0.67, an impressive 46% ahead of forecasts. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Sierra Bancorp

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Sierra Bancorp's six analysts is for revenues of US$134.5m in 2021, which would reflect a solid 12% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$2.32, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$124.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.74 in 2021. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a sizeable expansion in earnings per share in particular.

It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Sierra Bancorp 11% to US$22.17on the back of these upgrades. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Sierra Bancorp analyst has a price target of US$25.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$20.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. Next year brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to grow 12%, in line with its 10% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 1.4% per year. So it's pretty clear that Sierra Bancorp is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Sierra Bancorp following these results. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting revenues to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Sierra Bancorp analysts - going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Sierra Bancorp that you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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