- Oops!Something went wrong.Please try again later.
To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? One common approach is to try and find a company with returns on capital employed (ROCE) that are increasing, in conjunction with a growing amount of capital employed. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. Although, when we looked at J. M. Smucker (NYSE:SJM), it didn't seem to tick all of these boxes.
Return On Capital Employed (ROCE): What is it?
If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for J. M. Smucker, this is the formula:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.078 = US$1.1b ÷ (US$16b - US$1.7b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to January 2022).
Thus, J. M. Smucker has an ROCE of 7.8%. In absolute terms, that's a low return but it's around the Food industry average of 9.5%.
In the above chart we have measured J. M. Smucker's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering J. M. Smucker here for free.
So How Is J. M. Smucker's ROCE Trending?
Over the past five years, J. M. Smucker's ROCE and capital employed have both remained mostly flat. Businesses with these traits tend to be mature and steady operations because they're past the growth phase. With that in mind, unless investment picks up again in the future, we wouldn't expect J. M. Smucker to be a multi-bagger going forward. With fewer investment opportunities, it makes sense that J. M. Smucker has been paying out a decent 48% of its earnings to shareholders. Given the business isn't reinvesting in itself, it makes sense to distribute a portion of earnings among shareholders.
The Bottom Line
In summary, J. M. Smucker isn't compounding its earnings but is generating stable returns on the same amount of capital employed. Unsurprisingly, the stock has only gained 12% over the last five years, which potentially indicates that investors are accounting for this going forward. So if you're looking for a multi-bagger, the underlying trends indicate you may have better chances elsewhere.
On a final note, we've found 2 warning signs for J. M. Smucker that we think you should be aware of.
While J. M. Smucker may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.