Until the very end, Mitt Romney and his campaign believed he was going to win the election. The New Republic's Noam Schieber details this morning why Romney's team thought that: They had a set of very off-the-mark swing state internal polls that lined up to a Romney victory.
The two particularly brutal examples are from Colorado and New Hampshire, where Romney's internal polling gave him at least a 3-point lead in each state. He lost each state by at least 5 points.
In New Hampshire, the Romney internal polls' two-day average put him up 3.5 points on Obama. He lost the state in a blowout:
In Colorado, it was much of the same story:
These two states, combined with good Iowa polling and the assumption by the campaign that Romney would win Virginia and Florida, provided Romney with optimism going into Election Day.
So what happened? Schieber writes that the Romney campaign made some of the same flawed assumptions about the polls that turned out to be wrong:
Newhouse and some of his colleagues have said that the biggest flaw in their polling was the failure to predict the demographic composition of the electorate. Broadly speaking, the people who showed up to vote on November 6 were younger and less white than Team Romney anticipated, and far more Democratic as a result. “The Colorado Latino vote was extraordinarily challenging,” Newhouse told me. “As it was in Florida.”
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