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The RLJ Lodging Trust (NYSE:RLJ) Share Price Is Down 40% So Some Shareholders Are Getting Worried

Simply Wall St

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But the main game is to find enough winners to more than offset the losers At this point some shareholders may be questioning their investment in RLJ Lodging Trust (NYSE:RLJ), since the last five years saw the share price fall 40%. Unhappily, the share price slid 1.5% in the last week.

See our latest analysis for RLJ Lodging Trust

There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the five years over which the share price declined, RLJ Lodging Trust's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 4.8% each year. This reduction in EPS is less than the 9.8% annual reduction in the share price. This implies that the market was previously too optimistic about the stock.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

NYSE:RLJ Past and Future Earnings, September 20th 2019

It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free interactive report on RLJ Lodging Trust's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.


What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for RLJ Lodging Trust the TSR over the last 5 years was -20%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

RLJ Lodging Trust shareholders are down 18% for the year (even including dividends) , but the market itself is up 3.4%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 4.5% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. If you want to research this stock further, the data on insider buying is an obvious place to start. You can click here to see who has been buying shares - and the price they paid.

RLJ Lodging Trust is not the only stock insiders are buying. So take a peek at this free list of growing companies with insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.