U.S. markets open in 6 hours 35 minutes
  • S&P Futures

    3,807.25
    +13.25 (+0.35%)
     
  • Dow Futures

    30,400.00
    +90.00 (+0.30%)
     
  • Nasdaq Futures

    11,681.00
    +57.25 (+0.49%)
     
  • Russell 2000 Futures

    1,775.20
    +7.20 (+0.41%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    87.60
    -0.16 (-0.18%)
     
  • Gold

    1,731.80
    +11.00 (+0.64%)
     
  • Silver

    20.83
    +0.28 (+1.37%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    0.9911
    +0.0026 (+0.27%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    3.7590
    0.0000 (0.00%)
     
  • Vix

    28.55
    -0.52 (-1.79%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.1328
    +0.0007 (+0.06%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    144.5320
    -0.0780 (-0.05%)
     
  • BTC-USD

    20,241.10
    +6.31 (+0.03%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    459.96
    +1.55 (+0.34%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,052.62
    -33.84 (-0.48%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    27,311.30
    +190.80 (+0.70%)
     

Are Robust Financials Driving The Recent Rally In The Progressive Corporation's (NYSE:PGR) Stock?

·4 min read

Most readers would already be aware that Progressive's (NYSE:PGR) stock increased significantly by 17% over the past three months. Given that the market rewards strong financials in the long-term, we wonder if that is the case in this instance. Specifically, we decided to study Progressive's ROE in this article.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. Simply put, it is used to assess the profitability of a company in relation to its equity capital.

See our latest analysis for Progressive

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

ROE can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Progressive is:

18% = US$3.4b ÷ US$18b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2021).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every $1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn $0.18 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Progressive's Earnings Growth And 18% ROE

To start with, Progressive's ROE looks acceptable. Especially when compared to the industry average of 11% the company's ROE looks pretty impressive. This probably laid the ground for Progressive's significant 28% net income growth seen over the past five years. We believe that there might also be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

We then compared Progressive's net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 12% in the same period.

past-earnings-growth
past-earnings-growth

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Is PGR fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Progressive Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

The three-year median payout ratio for Progressive is 49%, which is moderately low. The company is retaining the remaining 51%. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the high growth we discussed above, it looks like Progressive is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

Additionally, Progressive has paid dividends over a period of at least ten years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company over the next three years is expected to be approximately 49%. Regardless, Progressive's ROE is speculated to decline to 12% despite there being no anticipated change in its payout ratio.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with Progressive's performance. Particularly, we like that the company is reinvesting heavily into its business, and at a high rate of return. Unsurprisingly, this has led to an impressive earnings growth. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.