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Royal Gold (RGLD) Up 14.2% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Royal Gold (RGLD). Shares have added about 14.2% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Royal Gold due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.

Royal Gold Q3 Earnings Miss Estimates, Increase Y/Y

Royal Gold reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 76 cents in third-quarter 2023, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 79 cents. The bottom line increased 7% year over year.

Including one-time items, the company reported an EPS of 75 cents compared with the prior-year quarter’s 70 cents.

RGLD generated revenues of $139 million, up 5.5% year over year. The upside was driven by higher gold production at the Cortez Legacy Zone, the new Cortez royalties acquired in 2022, and higher gold, silver and copper prices. However, these factors were offset by the suspension of operations at Peñasquito due to a strike.

Stream revenues were $99 million and royalty revenues were $40 million in the September-end quarter. Stream revenues increased 0.3% year over year, whereas royalty revenues increased 21.1%.

The company’s cost of sales was $21 million in the third quarter compared with the prior-year quarter’s $23 million.

General and administrative expenses amounted to $10 million, up 32% year over year. The adjusted EBITDA was $108 million in the reported quarter, up 6.7% year over year. The adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 78% compared with the prior-year quarter’s 77%.

Financial Position

Net cash from operating activities was $98 million in the third quarter compared with the prior-year quarter’s $95 million. Royal Gold ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of around $103 million compared with $119 million at the end of 2022.

Outlook

The company expects stream segment sales to come at low-end, or slightly below the previously stated 320,000-345,000 GEOs for 2023.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month.

The consensus estimate has shifted -10% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Royal Gold has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. However, the stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Royal Gold has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.

Performance of an Industry Player

Royal Gold belongs to the Zacks Mining - Gold industry. Another stock from the same industry, Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM), has gained 12.8% over the past month. More than a month has passed since the company reported results for the quarter ended September 2023.

Agnico reported revenues of $1.64 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +13.3%. EPS of $0.44 for the same period compares with $0.52 a year ago.

Agnico is expected to post earnings of $0.44 per share for the current quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +7.3%. Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed -1.1%.

The overall direction and magnitude of estimate revisions translate into a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Agnico. Also, the stock has a VGM Score of D.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report

Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) : Free Stock Analysis Report

Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) : Free Stock Analysis Report

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