Santos (ASX:STO) shareholders are still up 47% over 5 years despite pulling back 3.1% in the past week
If you want to compound wealth in the stock market, you can do so by buying an index fund. But in our experience, buying the right stocks can give your wealth a significant boost. For example, the Santos Limited (ASX:STO) share price is 39% higher than it was five years ago, which is more than the market average. Zooming in, the stock is up a respectable 11% in the last year.
Although Santos has shed US$420m from its market cap this week, let's take a look at its longer term fundamental trends and see if they've driven returns.
View our latest analysis for Santos
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the last half decade, Santos became profitable. That would generally be considered a positive, so we'd expect the share price to be up. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. We can see that the Santos share price is down 11% in the last three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 4.5% per year. It would appear there's a real mismatch between the increasing EPS and the share price, which has declined -4% a year for three years.
The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We know that Santos has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? If you're interested, you could check this free report showing consensus revenue forecasts.
What About Dividends?
When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Santos the TSR over the last 5 years was 47%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Santos shareholders are up 13% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 8% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Santos (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant) .
But note: Santos may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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