Today I will be providing a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Scout24 AG (FRA:G24) as an investment opportunity by estimating the company’s future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. I will use the Discounted Cash Flows (DCF) model. Don’t get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in November 2018 so be sure check out the updated calculation by following the link below.
Step by step through the calculation
I use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of varying growth rates for the company’s cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a more stable growth phase. To begin with we have to get estimates of the next five years of cash flows. For this I used the consensus of the analysts covering the stock, as you can see below. The sum of these cash flows is then discounted to today’s value.
5-year cash flow forecast
|Levered FCF (€, Millions)||€207.90||€234.93||€255.45||€298.56||€346.33|
|Source||Analyst x8||Analyst x8||Analyst x2||Est @ 16.88%||Est @ 16%, capped from 16.88%|
|Present Value Discounted @ 10.36%||€188.38||€192.88||€190.04||€201.25||€211.53|
Present Value of 5-year Cash Flow (PVCF)= €984m
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business’s cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of the GDP. In this case I have used the 10-year government bond rate (0.5%). In the same way as with the 5-year ‘growth’ period, we discount this to today’s value at a cost of equity of 10.4%.
Terminal Value (TV) = FCF2022 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €346m × (1 + 0.5%) ÷ (10.4% – 0.5%) = €3.5b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV) = TV / (1 + r)5 = €3.5b ÷ ( 1 + 10.4%)5 = €2.2b
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the cash flows, which in this case is €3.1b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. If the stock is an depositary receipt (represents a specified number of shares in a foreign corporation) then we use the equivalent number. This results in an intrinsic value of €29.27. Compared to the current share price of €35.76, the stock is fair value, maybe slightly overvalued at the time of writing.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don’t agree with my result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. Because we are looking at Scout24 as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighed average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation I’ve used 10.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.038. This is derived from the Bottom-Up Beta method based on comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn’t be the only metric you look at when researching a company. What is the reason for the share price to differ from the intrinsic value? For G24, I’ve put together three important aspects you should further research:
- Financial Health: Does G24 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
- Future Earnings: How does G24’s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Are there other high quality stocks you could be holding instead of G24? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. Simply Wall St does a DCF calculation for every DE stock every 6 hours, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
To help readers see past the short term volatility of the financial market, we aim to bring you a long-term focused research analysis purely driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis does not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements.
The author is an independent contributor and at the time of publication had no position in the stocks mentioned. For errors that warrant correction please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org.