Advertisement
U.S. markets closed
  • S&P 500

    5,123.41
    -75.65 (-1.46%)
     
  • Dow 30

    37,983.24
    -475.84 (-1.24%)
     
  • Nasdaq

    16,175.09
    -267.10 (-1.62%)
     
  • Russell 2000

    2,003.17
    -39.43 (-1.93%)
     
  • Crude Oil

    85.45
    +0.43 (+0.51%)
     
  • Gold

    2,360.20
    -12.50 (-0.53%)
     
  • Silver

    27.97
    -0.28 (-0.99%)
     
  • EUR/USD

    1.0646
    -0.0085 (-0.79%)
     
  • 10-Yr Bond

    4.4990
    -0.0770 (-1.68%)
     
  • GBP/USD

    1.2451
    -0.0104 (-0.83%)
     
  • USD/JPY

    153.2400
    +0.0370 (+0.02%)
     
  • Bitcoin USD

    64,577.07
    -2,884.11 (-4.28%)
     
  • CMC Crypto 200

    885.54
    0.00 (0.00%)
     
  • FTSE 100

    7,995.58
    +71.78 (+0.91%)
     
  • Nikkei 225

    39,523.55
    +80.92 (+0.21%)
     

SEEK Limited (ASX:SEK) Shares Could Be 26% Above Their Intrinsic Value Estimate

Key Insights

  • Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, SEEK fair value estimate is AU$20.52

  • SEEK's AU$25.88 share price signals that it might be 26% overvalued

  • The AU$26.39 analyst price target for SEK is 29% more than our estimate of fair value

Does the February share price for SEEK Limited (ASX:SEK) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by estimating the company's future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Check out our latest analysis for SEEK

The Calculation

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

Levered FCF (A$, Millions)

AU$149.3m

AU$250.7m

AU$304.9m

AU$387.6m

AU$413.9m

AU$434.0m

AU$451.6m

AU$467.3m

AU$481.8m

AU$495.3m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x6

Analyst x6

Analyst x6

Analyst x3

Analyst x2

Est @ 4.86%

Est @ 4.05%

Est @ 3.48%

Est @ 3.09%

Est @ 2.81%

Present Value (A$, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4%

AU$139

AU$217

AU$246

AU$292

AU$290

AU$284

AU$275

AU$265

AU$254

AU$244

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = AU$2.5b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = AU$495m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (7.4%– 2.2%) = AU$9.7b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= AU$9.7b÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)10= AU$4.8b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is AU$7.3b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of AU$25.9, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
dcf

Important Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at SEEK as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.129. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for SEEK

Strength

  • Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.

Weakness

  • Earnings declined over the past year.

  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Interactive Media and Services market.

  • Expensive based on P/E ratio and estimated fair value.

Opportunity

  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Australian market.

Threat

  • Dividends are not covered by earnings and cashflows.

  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For SEEK, we've put together three relevant items you should look at:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with SEEK , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

  2. Future Earnings: How does SEK's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the ASX every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Advertisement