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Will Segmental Growth Aid Hologic (HOLX) in Q1 Earnings?

Zacks Equity Research

Hologic, Inc. HOLX is slated to report first-quarter fiscal 2020 results on Jan 29, after the closing bell. In the last reported quarter, the company’s earnings of 65 cents were in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, its earnings surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, with a surprise of 1.7%, on average.

Let's see how things are shaping up prior to the announcement.

Key Growth Driver

Hologic’s to-be-reported quarter's results are expected to reflect benefits from the Breast Health segment. Within the business, growth of Breast Imaging and Interventional Breast Solutions sub-segments is expected to have aided the to-be-reported quarter’s performance.

Hologic, Inc. Price and Consensus

 

Hologic, Inc. Price and Consensus

Hologic, Inc. price-consensus-chart | Hologic, Inc. Quote


The segment has been expanding, owing to the company’s core 3D Mammography business, which has been witnessing robust growth since the past few quarters. Since the second half of 2019, Genius 3D mammography systems’ sales have been rising. This is expected to get reflected in the upcoming results.


For the past few months, Hologic’s 3Dimensions and 3D Performance systems have been contributing significantly to the top line. The product portfolio, comprising Intelligent 2D, Clarity HD and SmartCurve, has been witnessing strong market adoption. Also, the Faxitron business, which did not contribute to organic growth in the last reported quarter, is expected to have aided the company’s top line in the fiscal first quarter, backed by solid revenue contribution witnessed in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2019. Aptima women's health test kits are expected to have maintained the previous quarter’s growth momentum.

Further, the breast health segment has likely got a boost in the fiscal first quarter from regulatory nods received in November 2019 — including the FDA approval for 3DQuorum Imaging Technology powered by Genius AI and the extension of the CE Mark for its LOCalizer radiofrequency identification (RFID) tag for long-term placement. The launch of the comprehensive breast diagnostic reading solution, Unifi Workspace, is likely to aid the company’s top line.

Domestic sales of the Breast Health segment have been quite impressive for the past few quarters, backed by product expansion.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Breast Health segment’s revenues is pegged at $331 million, indicating rise of 3.8% from the prior-year quarter’s reported figure. The consensus estimate for the Interventional Breast Solutions segment’s revenues stands at $57 million, suggesting a 6.6% dip from the year-earlier quarter’s reported number.

Other Segments in Focus

The company expects its Diagnostics segment to have maintained a stellar performance in the fiscal first quarter as well on strength in the Molecular Diagnostics business. In the United States, it is likely to have gained from expanding market share and increasing utilization of the Panther system — the fully automated molecular diagnostics instrument.

The company’s Panther Fusion platform has likely contributed to the top line, thus continuing its momentum. The Molecular Diagnostics segment is expected to have witnessed global growth in the fiscal first quarter on the Panther system. The Aptima women's health assays are expected to have maintained the strong ongoing momentum in the to-be-reported quarter as well.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Molecular Diagnostics’ revenues is pegged at $177 million, suggesting a 10.6% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.

This apart, Hologic is expected to have witnessed an uptick in the GYN Surgical segment, backed by the expansion of the hysteroscopy portfolio with the launch of Omni Lok Cervical Seal in the United States and Canada. The launch of the Definity cervical dilator, which uses the SureAccess balloon technology to seamlessly access uterine cavities without a tenaculum, is expected to have aided the company’s performance. It expects the continuation of the strong segmental performance in the fiscal first quarter as well.

A reformed sales force and a revitalized R&D pipeline are also anticipated to have aided Hologic.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Gyn Surgical’s revenues is pegged at $113 million, suggesting a 2.7% increase from the year-ago quarter’s reported level.

Preliminary Announcement

The preliminary results for the to-be-reported quarter (announced on Jan 12) suggest 2.4% year-over-year rise in total revenues (up 2.8% at constant exchange rate or CER) to $850.5 million, whereas the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $844.9 million. This also marginally exceeds the upper limit of the company's earlier provided revenue guidance of $835-$850 million.

Excluding acquisitions and divestitures, total revenues are predicted to increase 4.1% (up 4.6% at CER).

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings of 61 cents suggests 7% growth from the year-ago reported figure.

What the Model Suggests

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Hologic this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our
Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Hologic has an Earnings ESP of +2.20%.

Zacks Rank: The company currently carries a Zacks Rank #3. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Other Stocks Worth a Look

Here are a few other medical stocks worth considering, as these too have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

DexCom, Inc. DXCM currently has an Earnings ESP of +17.07% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Exact Sciences Corporation EXAS presently has an Earnings ESP of +12.08% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Tandem Diabetes Care, Inc. TNDM currently has an Earnings ESP of +27.59% and sports a Zacks Rank #1.

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Hologic, Inc. (HOLX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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