BE Semiconductor Industries N.V.'s (AMS:BESI) Intrinsic Value Is Potentially 26% Below Its Share Price

Key Insights

• The projected fair value for BE Semiconductor Industries is €66.43 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity

• BE Semiconductor Industries' €89.28 share price signals that it might be 34% overvalued

• The €105 analyst price target for BESI is 59% more than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (AMS:BESI) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Models like these may appear beyond the comprehension of a lay person, but they're fairly easy to follow.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for BE Semiconductor Industries

Is BE Semiconductor Industries Fairly Valued?

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF (€, Millions)	€264.1m	€321.8m	€378.8m	€373.8m	€371.2m	€370.0m	€369.7m	€370.1m	€371.0m	€372.2m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ -0.70%	Est @ -0.33%	Est @ -0.07%	Est @ 0.11%	Est @ 0.24%	Est @ 0.32%
Present Value (€, Millions) Discounted @ 7.1%	€247	€281	€309	€285	€264	€246	€229	€215	€201	€188

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = €2.5b

We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.5%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.1%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = €372m× (1 + 0.5%) ÷ (7.1%– 0.5%) = €5.7b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= €5.7b÷ ( 1 + 7.1%)¹⁰= €2.9b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is €5.4b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Compared to the current share price of €89.3, the company appears potentially overvalued at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at BE Semiconductor Industries as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.304. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for BE Semiconductor Industries

Strength

• Debt is not viewed as a risk.

Weakness

• Earnings declined over the past year.

• Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Semiconductor market.

Opportunity

• Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Dutch market.

• Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.

Threat

• Dividends are not covered by earnings.

• Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Moving On:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. It's not possible to obtain a foolproof valuation with a DCF model. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value lower than the current share price? For BE Semiconductor Industries, we've put together three fundamental items you should further research:

1. Risks: For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for BE Semiconductor Industries that you should be aware of.

2. Future Earnings: How does BESI's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every Dutch stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.