While Shoe Zone plc (LON:SHOE) might not be the most widely known stock at the moment, it led the AIM gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. As a small cap stock, hardly covered by any analysts, there is generally more of an opportunity for mispricing as there is less activity to push the stock closer to fair value. Is there still an opportunity here to buy? Today I will analyse the most recent data on Shoe Zone’s outlook and valuation to see if the opportunity still exists.
What Is Shoe Zone Worth?
According to my price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average, the stock price seems to be justfied. I’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 7.67x is currently trading slightly below its industry peers’ ratio of 8.02x, which means if you buy Shoe Zone today, you’d be paying a decent price for it. And if you believe that Shoe Zone should be trading at this level in the long run, then there’s not much of an upside to gain over and above other industry peers. Although, there may be an opportunity to buy in the future. This is because Shoe Zone’s beta (a measure of share price volatility) is high, meaning its price movements will be exaggerated relative to the rest of the market. If the market is bearish, the company’s shares will likely fall by more than the rest of the market, providing a prime buying opportunity.
What kind of growth will Shoe Zone generate?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Buying a great company with a robust outlook at a cheap price is always a good investment, so let’s also take a look at the company's future expectations. Though in the case of Shoe Zone, it is expected to deliver a highly negative earnings growth in the upcoming, which doesn’t help build up its investment thesis. It appears that risk of future uncertainty is high, at least in the near term.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? Currently, SHOE appears to be trading around industry price multiples, but given the uncertainty from negative returns in the future, this could be the right time to reduce the risk in your portfolio. Is your current exposure to the stock beneficial for your total portfolio? And is the opportunity cost of holding a negative-outlook stock too high? Before you make a decision on SHOE, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on SHOE for a while, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. This means there’s less benefit from mispricing. In addition to this, the negative growth outlook increases the risk of holding the stock. However, there are also other important factors we haven’t considered today, which can help gel your views on SHOE should the price fluctuate below the industry PE ratio.
So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Shoe Zone at this point in time. To help with this, we've discovered 2 warning signs (1 is a bit unpleasant!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Shoe Zone.
If you are no longer interested in Shoe Zone, you can use our free platform to see our list of over 50 other stocks with a high growth potential.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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