Shopify (SHOP) Up 6.7% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?
It has been about a month since the last earnings report for Shopify Inc. SHOP. Shares have added about 6.7% in that time frame.
Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is SHOP due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.
Recent Earnings
Shopify reported non-GAAP earnings of 15 cents per share in fourth-quarter 2017, flat year over year. Earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 10 cents.
Revenues jumped 71% from the year-ago quarter to $222.8 million, comfortably surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $208 million. The figure was also better than the guided range of $206-$208 million.
Shopify continues to launch a number of merchant-friendly applications to meet the requirements of a dynamic retail environment, thereby adding to its merchant base. This also reflected in the year-over-year top-line growth. Record breaking sales achieved during Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend significantly impacted this quarter’s results.
Moreover, investments in latest technological developments such as Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality will reap benefits for the company going forward.
Quarter Details
Subscription Solutions revenues surged 67% to $93.9 million. This upside was driven by the continued rapid growth in Monthly Recurring Revenue (“MRR”) with the addition of several new merchants. The company ended 2017 with approximately 609,000 merchants on its platform.
As of Dec 31, 2017, MRR was $29.9 million, up 62% from $18.5 million as of Dec 31, 2016. Shopify Plus accounted for $6.3 million or 21% of MRR compared with 17% of MRR in the year-ago quarter.
Merchant Solutions revenues grew 74% to $128.9 million, backed primarily by the growth of Gross Merchandise Volume (“GMV”), which soared 65% from the year-ago quarter to $9.1 billion. Gross Payments Volume (“GPV”) grew to $3.5 billion, which accounted for 39% of GMV processed in the quarter compared with $2.2 billion or 39% in fourth-quarter 2016.
Notably, Shopify’s Instagram channel and integration of Apple Pay services have helped the company connect to a wide customer base, ultimately increasing the number of active users on the platform. To make transactions easier for its merchants, Shopify is continuously focusing on the development of mobile applications, which grew to 2300 in 2017.
Additionally, global toy store giant, FAO Schwarz, was added as a partner during the quarter, helping sellers reach new markets. Moreover, Polaroid, Cummins Engine Company and Ford were added to the company’s partner network. Management expects eBay sales channel to be beneficial to the merchants, going forward.
The company also enhanced its shipping capabilities by integrating GPS services to Shopify Shipping lineup. In addition, it made UPS premium services available with Shopify Shipping.
Shopify has been developing various apps, including various augmented reality (“AR”) based applications to streamline customer experience, The first-of-its-kind merchant product on the Shopify platform has been built on Shopify Mobile Buy SDK and Apple Inc.'s ARKit, enabling users to check how the goods look in real life surroundings.
Management was particularly positive about the company’s partner ecosystem that helps it to identify and reach out to merchants otherwise unreachable. The company added quite a few prominent brands such as infant formula Enfamil, apparel brands like Jockey and low-LAY yoga. The company also added celebrity brands such as Elle Macpherson fashion line and headphone line from Cristiano Ronaldo.
Operating Details
Gross profit soared 78% to $121.1 million, primarily driven by robust performance across Subscription Solutions and Merchant Solutions segments.
Adjusted operating income was $11.6 million against loss of $0.8 million in the year-ago quarter.
Balance Sheet
Shopify ended the quarter with cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities balance of $938 million compared with $926.6 million in the previous quarter.
Guidance
For first-quarter 2018, Shopify projects revenues in the range of $198-$202 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the same is pegged at $196.26 million.
Adjusted operating loss is expected to be in the range of $6-$8 million.
For full-year 2018, management projects revenues in the range of $970-$990 million. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $952.62 million.
Adjusted operating income for fiscal 2018 is guided between ($5) and $5 million.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
Fresh estimates followed a downward path over the past two months. In the past month, consensus estimates have shifted downward by 29.5% due to these changes.
Shopify Inc. Price and Consensus
Shopify Inc. Price and Consensus | Shopify Inc. Quote
VGM Scores
At this time, SHOP has a nice Growth Score of B, though it is lagging a lot on the momentum front with a D. The stock was allocated a grade of F on the value side, putting it in the bottom 20% for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
The company's stock is suitable solely for growth based on our styles scores.
Outlook
SHOP has a Zacks Rank #5 (Strong Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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