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Short Yen ETF Could be Ready to Soar


The CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (FXY) is up 2.1% this as various geopolitical events and macro issues have chased investors into the safe-haven Japanese currency.

A stronger yen has predictably hampered Japanese stocks and the corresponding exchange traded funds, some pros remain bullish on equities in the world’s third-largest economy. Hedge fund managers are still bullish on Japan, even after the Nikkei 225 stock index dropped 11% this year and the Japanese yen appreciated 3% against the U.S. dollar, reports Lawrence Delevingne for CNBC. [Pros Still Backing Japan ETFs]

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch data, there has been “minimal change” in Japanese positioning among investment managers. Moreover, shorts on the yen have also increased slightly over the past few weeks.

That could be a sign the yen is ready to decline again and the charts on the double-leveraged ProShares UltraShort Yen (YCS) could be saying as much.

“YCS has settled in a tight trading range the past few months after a 12% rally to close out 2013. The price action continues to hold above the 200-day MA, with higher swing lows within the current base,” according to Deron Wagner of Morpheus Trading Group.

YCS is down 5.2% year-to-date, but has gained 0.4% over the past month and 0.3% in the past week.

“YCS held support at the 200-day MA two weeks ago, and formed a bullish reversal candle on Wednesday, which could potentially set another higher low,” said Wagner.

Geopolitical headlines still present a risk to near-term upside for YCS. FXY is trading slightly higher on increased safe-haven demand after Russia said it has commenced military exercises near the Ukrainian border. [Yen in Play as Risk-Off Sentiment Rises]

“The news came after Ukrainian forces killed pro-Russian insurgents outside the city of Slovyansk as Ukraine tried to reclaim its eastern region,” the Wall Street Journal reported.

ProShares UltraShort Yen



ETF Trends editorial team contributed to this post.

The opinions and forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Tom Lydon, and may not actually come to pass. Mr. Lydon serves as an independent trustee of certain mutual funds and ETFs that are managed by Guggenheim Investments; however, any opinions or forecasts expressed herein are solely those of Mr. Lydon and not those of Guggenheim Funds, Guggenheim Investments, Guggenheim Specialized Products, LLC or any of their affiliates. Information on this site should not be used or construed as an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any product.