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Is Simply Good Foods' (NASDAQ:SMPL) 109% Share Price Increase Well Justified?

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·3 min read
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  • SMPL

It might seem bad, but the worst that can happen when you buy a stock (without leverage) is that its share price goes to zero. But when you pick a company that is really flourishing, you can make more than 100%. For example, the The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ:SMPL) share price has soared 109% in the last three years. That sort of return is as solid as granite. On top of that, the share price is up 39% in about a quarter.

View our latest analysis for Simply Good Foods

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Simply Good Foods was able to grow its EPS at 266% per year over three years, sending the share price higher. The average annual share price increase of 28% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. Having said that, the market is still optimistic, given the P/E ratio of 79.48.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-per-share-growth
earnings-per-share-growth

We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Simply Good Foods' earnings, revenue and cash flow.

A Different Perspective

Over the last year, Simply Good Foods shareholders took a loss of 17%. In contrast the market gained about 25%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Fortunately the longer term story is brighter, with total returns averaging about 28% per year over three years. Sometimes when a good quality long term winner has a weak period, it's turns out to be an opportunity, but you really need to be sure that the quality is there. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Simply Good Foods better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 5 warning signs for Simply Good Foods you should be aware of, and 1 of them doesn't sit too well with us.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com.