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It has been about a month since the last earnings report for SL Green (SLG). Shares were flat in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.
But investors have to be wondering, will the recent trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is SL Green due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important catalysts.
SL Green Q4 FFO Tops Estimates, Revenues and NOI Decline
SL Green reported fourth-quarter 2020 pro forma FFO per share of $1.56, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.54. The figure, however, was lower than the year-ago quarter’s number of $1.75.
This excludes the impacts of the company's reverse stock split in January 2021. Nonetheless, the fourth-quarter 2020 FFO per share figure includes 11 cents per share of losses related to certain DPE investments that were sold and retained against retained investments.
Net rental revenues of $165.2 million in the fourth quarter missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $171.6 million. The revenue figure also declined 24% from the prior-year number of $218.5 million.
For 2020, the company reported pro forma FFO per share of $7.11, up 1.6% from $7 in the prior year but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.24. Net rental revenues of $708.4 million declined 18% year over year.
As of Jan 27, the company’s gross tenant billing collection for 2020 was 94.8%. This includes 97.9% from office and 80.8% from retail tenants.
Quarter in Detail
During the December-end quarter, same-store cash NOI, including SL Green’s share of same-store cash NOI from unconsolidated joint ventures, decreased 5.9% year over year. This includes lease termination and free rent income given to Viacom for space at 1515 Broadway.
In the Manhattan portfolio, SL Green signed 27 office leases for 463,927 square feet during the reported period. The mark-to-market on signed Manhattan office leases was 11.9% lower during the fourth quarter than the previous fully-escalated rents in the same spaces.
As of Dec 31, 2020, Manhattan’s same-store office occupancy, inclusive of leases signed but not yet commenced, was 93.4%, down 80 basis points from the prior quarter.
The carrying value of its debt and preferred equity investment portfolio decreased to $1.11 billion from $1.18 billion as of September end.
As of the fourth-quarter end, the company had cash and cash equivalents of $266 million, up from $166.1 million recorded at the end of 2019.
During the quarter, the company increased the size of its share repurchase program by an additional $500 million, bringing the program authorization to $3.5 billion. Under this $3.5-billion share-repurchase program, the company repurchased 32.4 million shares as of Jan 27.
During the fourth quarter, it closed the sale of 712 Madison Avenue for gross sales price of $43.0 million, with the company receiving net cash proceeds of $14.2 million.
In December 2020, the company announced a 2.8% increase in its annual ordinary dividend to $3.64 per share. Additionally, it announced a special dividend of $1.6967 per share, which was paid out on Jan 15, 2021, in the form of common stock. To offset the dilutive impact of the stock issued as a special dividend, the company executed a reverse stock split, effective on Jan 20, 2021. The split ratio for the reverse stock split was 1.02918 for 1.
How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?
It turns out, fresh estimates have trended downward during the past month.
At this time, SL Green has a poor Growth Score of F, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a D. However, the stock was allocated a grade of B on the value side, putting it in the second quintile for this investment strategy.
Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.
Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise SL Green has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.
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