To the annoyance of some shareholders, ANI Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:ANIP) shares are down a considerable 38% in the last month. Indeed the recent decline has arguably caused some bitterness for shareholders who have held through the 37% drop over twelve months.
Assuming nothing else has changed, a lower share price makes a stock more attractive to potential buyers. While the market sentiment towards a stock is very changeable, in the long run, the share price will tend to move in the same direction as earnings per share. The implication here is that long term investors have an opportunity when expectations of a company are too low. Perhaps the simplest way to get a read on investors' expectations of a business is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). A high P/E ratio means that investors have a high expectation about future growth, while a low P/E ratio means they have low expectations about future growth.
Does ANI Pharmaceuticals Have A Relatively High Or Low P/E For Its Industry?
We can tell from its P/E ratio of 79.32 that there is some investor optimism about ANI Pharmaceuticals. As you can see below, ANI Pharmaceuticals has a much higher P/E than the average company (16.9) in the pharmaceuticals industry.
ANI Pharmaceuticals's P/E tells us that market participants think the company will perform better than its industry peers, going forward. Shareholders are clearly optimistic, but the future is always uncertain. So further research is always essential. I often monitor director buying and selling.
How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios
P/E ratios primarily reflect market expectations around earnings growth rates. Earnings growth means that in the future the 'E' will be higher. And in that case, the P/E ratio itself will drop rather quickly. Then, a lower P/E should attract more buyers, pushing the share price up.
ANI Pharmaceuticals's earnings per share fell by 61% in the last twelve months. But EPS is up 14% over the last 3 years. And it has shrunk its earnings per share by 28% per year over the last five years. This growth rate might warrant a below average P/E ratio.
Don't Forget: The P/E Does Not Account For Debt or Bank Deposits
It's important to note that the P/E ratio considers the market capitalization, not the enterprise value. So it won't reflect the advantage of cash, or disadvantage of debt. Hypothetically, a company could reduce its future P/E ratio by spending its cash (or taking on debt) to achieve higher earnings.
Spending on growth might be good or bad a few years later, but the point is that the P/E ratio does not account for the option (or lack thereof).
How Does ANI Pharmaceuticals's Debt Impact Its P/E Ratio?
ANI Pharmaceuticals has net debt equal to 27% of its market cap. While that's enough to warrant consideration, it doesn't really concern us.
The Verdict On ANI Pharmaceuticals's P/E Ratio
ANI Pharmaceuticals's P/E is 79.3 which suggests the market is more focussed on the future opportunity rather than the current level of earnings. With a bit of debt, but a lack of recent growth, it's safe to say the market is expecting improved profit performance from the company, in the next few years. Given ANI Pharmaceuticals's P/E ratio has declined from 128.1 to 79.3 in the last month, we know for sure that the market is significantly less confident about the business today, than it was back then. For those who prefer to invest with the flow of momentum, that might be a bad sign, but for a contrarian, it may signal opportunity.
When the market is wrong about a stock, it gives savvy investors an opportunity. If the reality for a company is better than it expects, you can make money by buying and holding for the long term. So this free visualization of the analyst consensus on future earnings could help you make the right decision about whether to buy, sell, or hold.
You might be able to find a better buy than ANI Pharmaceuticals. If you want a selection of possible winners, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a P/E below 20 (but have proven they can grow earnings).
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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