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To the annoyance of some shareholders, First Bancshares (NASDAQ:FBMS) shares are down a considerable 36% in the last month. That drop has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 33% in that time.
Assuming nothing else has changed, a lower share price makes a stock more attractive to potential buyers. In the long term, share prices tend to follow earnings per share, but in the short term prices bounce around in response to short term factors (which are not always obvious). So, on certain occasions, long term focussed investors try to take advantage of pessimistic expectations to buy shares at a better price. One way to gauge market expectations of a stock is to look at its Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio). Investors have optimistic expectations of companies with higher P/E ratios, compared to companies with lower P/E ratios.
How Does First Bancshares's P/E Ratio Compare To Its Peers?
We can tell from its P/E ratio of 8.04 that sentiment around First Bancshares isn't particularly high. If you look at the image below, you can see First Bancshares has a lower P/E than the average (9.0) in the banks industry classification.
First Bancshares's P/E tells us that market participants think it will not fare as well as its peers in the same industry. Since the market seems unimpressed with First Bancshares, it's quite possible it could surprise on the upside. If you consider the stock interesting, further research is recommended. For example, I often monitor director buying and selling.
How Growth Rates Impact P/E Ratios
Probably the most important factor in determining what P/E a company trades on is the earnings growth. If earnings are growing quickly, then the 'E' in the equation will increase faster than it would otherwise. That means unless the share price increases, the P/E will reduce in a few years. And as that P/E ratio drops, the company will look cheap, unless its share price increases.
In the last year, First Bancshares grew EPS like Taylor Swift grew her fan base back in 2010; the 57% gain was both fast and well deserved. The cherry on top is that the five year growth rate was an impressive 16% per year. With that kind of growth rate we would generally expect a high P/E ratio.
Remember: P/E Ratios Don't Consider The Balance Sheet
Don't forget that the P/E ratio considers market capitalization. That means it doesn't take debt or cash into account. The exact same company would hypothetically deserve a higher P/E ratio if it had a strong balance sheet, than if it had a weak one with lots of debt, because a cashed up company can spend on growth.
While growth expenditure doesn't always pay off, the point is that it is a good option to have; but one that the P/E ratio ignores.
So What Does First Bancshares's Balance Sheet Tell Us?
First Bancshares's net debt is 52% of its market cap. This is a reasonably significant level of debt -- all else being equal you'd expect a much lower P/E than if it had net cash.
The Bottom Line On First Bancshares's P/E Ratio
First Bancshares has a P/E of 8.0. That's below the average in the US market, which is 13.4. The company may have significant debt, but EPS growth was good last year. If it continues to grow, then the current low P/E may prove to be unjustified. Given First Bancshares's P/E ratio has declined from 12.6 to 8.0 in the last month, we know for sure that the market is more worried about the business today, than it was back then. For those who prefer to invest with the flow of momentum, that might be a bad sign, but for deep value investors this stock might justify some research.
Investors should be looking to buy stocks that the market is wrong about. If the reality for a company is not as bad as the P/E ratio indicates, then the share price should increase as the market realizes this. So this free visual report on analyst forecasts could hold the key to an excellent investment decision.
Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with modest (or no) debt, trading on a P/E below 20.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at firstname.lastname@example.org. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
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