Is Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SPR) Trading At A 49% Discount?

Simply Wall St
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Key Insights

Does the May share price for Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:SPR) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. We will take advantage of the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model for this purpose. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you still have some burning questions about this type of valuation, take a look at the Simply Wall St analysis model.

View our latest analysis for Spirit AeroSystems Holdings

Crunching The Numbers

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

Levered FCF ($, Millions)

-US$153.8m

US$142.0m

US$375.3m

US$455.8m

US$494.0m

US$522.7m

US$547.3m

US$568.8m

US$588.0m

US$605.7m

Growth Rate Estimate Source

Analyst x7

Analyst x9

Analyst x7

Analyst x3

Analyst x1

Est @ 5.82%

Est @ 4.70%

Est @ 3.93%

Est @ 3.38%

Est @ 3.00%

Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 10%

-US$140

US$117

US$281

US$310

US$305

US$293

US$278

US$262

US$246

US$230

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$2.2b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.1%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 10%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2032 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$606m× (1 + 2.1%) ÷ (10%– 2.1%) = US$7.7b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$7.7b÷ ( 1 + 10%)10= US$2.9b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$5.1b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$24.5, the company appears quite good value at a 49% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

dcf
dcf

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Spirit AeroSystems Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.355. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Spirit AeroSystems Holdings

Strength

  • Debt is well covered by earnings.

Weakness

  • No major weaknesses identified for SPR.

Opportunity

  • Forecast to reduce losses next year.

  • Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.

  • Good value based on P/S ratio and estimated fair value.

Threat

  • Debt is not well covered by operating cash flow.

  • Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.

Moving On:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. Can we work out why the company is trading at a discount to intrinsic value? For Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, we've compiled three essential elements you should consider:

  1. Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Spirit AeroSystems Holdings , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

  2. Future Earnings: How does SPR's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.

  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NYSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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