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$SPY Second-Half July Break


The best win was $19,150 in 2002, and the worst loss was in 2009, posting a $12,650 bereavement. For six of the past eight years this July break has either arrived early or did not materialize resulting in six losses. This year, the S&P 500 is on track for three straight weeks of gains which have pushed many indicators to either near or to overbought readings.

July starts the worst four months of the year for NASDAQ and also falls in the middle of the worst six months for the Dow and S&P 500 indices. Mid-July is also when earnings season typically kicks off, where a strong early month rally can fade, as active traders may have “bought the rumor” on anticipation of good earnings expectations and then turn around and “sell the fact” once the news hits the street.


July Short S&P 500 (September) Trade History Table
S&P 500 (SP) Daily Bars and ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS) Daily Closes Chart

By Christopher Mistal