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Starbucks (SBUX) Hits Fresh High: Is There Still Room to Run?

Zacks Equity Research

Have you been paying attention to shares of Starbucks (SBUX)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 7.9% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $87.89 in the previous session. Starbucks has gained 36.3% since the start of the year compared to the 20.4% move for the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the 26% return for the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on April 25, 2019, Starbucks reported EPS of $0.6 versus consensus estimate of $0.56 while it missed the consensus revenue estimate by 0.04%.

For the current fiscal year, Starbucks is expected to post earnings of $2.78 per share on $26.25 billion in revenues. This represents a 14.88% change in EPS on a 6.21% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $3.1 per share on $28.23 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 11.39% and 7.51%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

Starbucks may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company has run ahead of itself.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as they provide investors with an additional way to sort through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

Starbucks has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and A, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 31.6X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 25.3X versus its peer group's average of 12.2X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 2.46. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Starbucks currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to favorable earnings estimate revisions from covering analysts.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Starbucks fits the bill. Thus, it seems as though Starbucks shares could still be poised for more gains ahead.

How Does Starbucks Stack Up to the Competition?

Shares of Starbucks have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? Some of its industry peers are also looking good, including J. Alexander's Holdings (JAX), The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), and Domino's Pizza (DPZ), all of which currently have a Zacks Rank of at least #2 and a VGM Score of at least B, making them well-rounded choices.

The Zacks Industry Rank is in the top 36% of all the industries we have in our universe, so it looks like there are some nice tailwinds for Starbucks, even beyond its own solid fundamental situation.


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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Domino's Pizza Inc (DPZ) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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