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Starbucks (SBUX) Soars to 52-Week High, Time to Cash Out?

Zacks Equity Research
South State (SSB) doesn't possess the right combination of the two key ingredients for a likely earnings beat in its upcoming report. Get prepared with the key expectations.

Have you been paying attention to shares of Starbucks (SBUX)? Shares have been on the move with the stock up 5% over the past month. The stock hit a new 52-week high of $78.4 in the previous session. Starbucks has gained 21.2% since the start of the year compared to the 20.5% move for the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector and the 18% return for the Zacks Retail - Restaurants industry.

What's Driving the Outperformance?

The stock has a great record of positive earnings surprises, as it hasn't missed our earnings consensus estimate in any of the last four quarters. In its last earnings report on April 25, 2019, Starbucks reported EPS of $0.6 versus consensus estimate of $0.56 while it missed the consensus revenue estimate by 0.04%.

For the current fiscal year, Starbucks is expected to post earnings of $2.78 per share on $26.24 billion in revenues. This represents a 14.88% change in EPS on a 6.16% change in revenues. For the next fiscal year, the company is expected to earn $3.09 per share on $28.2 billion in revenues. This represents a year-over-year change of 11.37% and 7.48%, respectively.

Valuation Metrics

Starbucks may be at a 52-week high right now, but what might the future hold for the stock? A key aspect of this question is taking a look at valuation metrics in order to determine if the company is due for a pullback from this level.

On this front, we can look at the Zacks Style Scores, as these give investors a variety of ways to comb through stocks (beyond looking at the Zacks Rank of a security). These styles are represented by grades running from A to F in the categories of Value, Growth, and Momentum, while there is a combined VGM Score as well. The idea behind the style scores is to help investors pick the most appropriate Zacks Rank stocks based on their individual investment style.

Starbucks has a Value Score of B. The stock's Growth and Momentum Scores are A and B, respectively, giving the company a VGM Score of A.

In terms of its value breakdown, the stock currently trades at 28.1X current fiscal year EPS estimates. On a trailing cash flow basis, the stock currently trades at 22.5X versus its peer group's average of 11.4X. Additionally, the stock has a PEG ratio of 2.19. This isn't enough to put the company in the top echelon of all stocks we cover from a value perspective.

Zacks Rank

We also need to look at the Zacks Rank for the stock, as this supersedes any trend on the style score front. Fortunately, Starbucks currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) thanks to rising earnings estimates.

Since we recommend that investors select stocks carrying Zacks Rank of 1 (Strong Buy) or 2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B, it looks as if Starbucks fits the bill. Thus, it seems as though Starbucks shares could have a bit more room to run in the near term.

How Does Starbucks Stack Up to the Competition?

Shares of Starbucks have been soaring, and the company still appears to be a decent choice, but what about the rest of the industry? Some of its industry peers are also solid potential picks, including Fiesta Restaurant Group (FRGI), BJ's Restaurants (BJRI), and Darden Restaurants (DRI), all of which currently have a Zacks Rank of at least #2 and a VGM Score of at least B, making them well-rounded choices.

However, it is worth noting that the Zacks Industry Rank for this group is in the bottom half of the ranking, so it isn't all good news for Starbucks. Still, the fundamentals for Starbucks are promising, and it still has potential despite being at a 52-week high.


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Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
BJ's Restaurants, Inc. (BJRI) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
Fiesta Restaurant Group, Inc. (FRGI) : Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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