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Stats and Opinion Polls Put the EUR and the GBP in Focus

Bob Mason

Earlier in the Day:

It was a relatively busy day on the economic calendar through the Asian session this morning.

The Aussie Dollar was in action again, with trade and retail sales figures released in the early part of the day.

On the geopolitical front, the markets also responded to Trump’s comments that suggested a phase 1 trade agreement was in sight…

For the Aussie Dollar

Retail sales were flat in October, coming up short of a forecasted 0.3% rise. In September, retail sales had risen by 0.2%.

According to the ABS,

  • Clothing, footwear and personal accessory sales (-0.8%), department stores (-0.8%), and household goods (-0.2%) saw declines.
  • Cafes, restaurants and takeaway food services (+0.4%) and food retailing (+0.1%) offset the declines.

Australia’s trade surplus narrowed from A$7.18bn to A$4.502bn in October. Economists had forecast a surplus of A$6.10bn.

According to the ABS,

  • Goods and services credits fell by A$2,205m (5%) to A$40,750m.
    • Non-rural goods exports fell by A$1,710m (6%), with non-monetary gold exports sliding by A$666m (25%).
    • The exports of rural goods rose by A$114m (3%), while the net exports of goods under merchanting surged by A$14m (93%).
    • Services credits rose by A$45m (1%).
  • Goods and services debits rose by A$140m to A$36,248m in October.
    • Consumption goods imports rose by A$334m (4%), with intermediate and other merchandise goods imports rising by A$256m (2%).
    • The imports of non-monetary gold slid by A$258m (-35%), with the import of capital goods falling by A$152m (-2%).
    • Service debits fell A$40m.

The Aussie Dollar moved from $0.68519 to $0.68359 upon release of the figures. At the time of writing, the Aussie Dollar down by 0.10% to $0.6842.

Elsewhere

At the time of writing, the Japanese Yen was down by 0.02% to ¥108.88 against the U.S Dollar, while the Kiwi Dollar was up by 0.15% to $0.6539.

The Day Ahead:

For the EUR

It’s a relatively busy day ahead on the economic calendar. Key stats include German factory orders figures for October ahead of the European open. Later in the morning, the Eurozone’s finalized 3rd quarter GDP numbers and October retail sales figures will also be in focus.

Barring deviation from 2nd estimates, we would expect factory order and retail sales figures to have the greatest impact.

The Eurozone economy continues to rely on consumer spending, making today’s figures all the more important.

Outside of the stats, with a week to go before the UK General Election, influence on the EUR will likely continue to rise. The EUR should show little response to the polls, however, should the Tories continue to stay out ahead.

Any chatter on trade would also need monitoring throughout the day.

At the time of writing, the EUR was up by 0.04% to $1.1082.

For the Pound

It’s a quiet day on the data front. There are no material stats due out of the UK to provide the Pound with direction.

The lack of stats will leave the Pound in the hands of the opinion polls and election predictions, as the 7-day countdown begins.

At the time of writing, the Pound was up by 0.06% to $1.3112.

Across the Pond

It’s a relatively busy day on the economic calendar. October trade data and factory order figures are due out, along with the weekly jobless claims numbers.

Barring any material jump in the initial jobless claims, we would expect the factory order numbers to have the greatest influence.

On the trade front, any widening of the trade deficit could spur Trump into Twitter action later in the day.

At the time of writing, the Dollar Spot Index was down 0.07% at 97.581.

For the Loonie

It’s a busy day on the economic calendar, with October trade data and November Ivey PMI due out of Canada later today.

Expect the Loonie to react to any disappointing numbers that contradict the BoC’s outlook on the economy…

The Loonie was up by 0.08% to C$1.3190, against the U.S Dollar, at the time of writing.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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