As you might know, Österreichische Post AG (VIE:POST) recently reported its full-year numbers. It looks like the results were a bit of a negative overall. While revenues of €2.0b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings were less than expected, missing estimates by 5.7% to hit €2.17 per share. Following the result, analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Österreichische Post's six analysts currently expect revenues in 2020 to be €2.05b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to descend 19% to €1.76 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, analysts had been modelling revenues of €2.07b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.15 in 2020. Analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a substantial drop in EPS estimates.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at €34.34, with analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on Österreichische Post, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €38.00 and the most bearish at €28.00 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggests analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. From these estimates it looks as though analysts expect the years of declining sales to come to an end, given the flat revenue forecast for next year. That would be a definite improvement, given that the past five years have seen sales shrink five years annually. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 3.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that, although revenues are improving, Österreichische Post is still expected to grow slower than the market.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern with the new estimates is that analysts have reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Österreichische Post. Fortunately, analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - although our data does suggest that Österreichische Post's revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider market. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Österreichische Post going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..
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