Stevanato Group S.p.A. (NYSE:STVN) came out with its first-quarter results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues of €238m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at €0.11, missing estimates by 4.4%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Stevanato Group's eight analysts is for revenues of €1.09b in 2023, which would reflect a decent 8.5% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 4.7% to €0.57. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €1.10b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.58 in 2023. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The consensus price target rose 8.1% to US$31.50despite there being no meaningful change to earnings estimates. It could be that the analystsare reflecting the predictability of Stevanato Group's earnings by assigning a price premium. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Stevanato Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$35.00 and the most bearish at US$27.00 per share. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Stevanato Group's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2023 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 17% over the past year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.9% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Stevanato Group's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting sales are tracking in line with expectations - and our data suggests that revenues are expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Stevanato Group analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.
It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Stevanato Group that you need to take into consideration.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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