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Stocks Traded and Extended Value Higher

IAM

“IAM” is the online name of one of our professional trader friends who writes a respected private newsletter to be shared with just a few friends and colleagues. He lets us share the newsletter with you, our readers. We offer it to you largely unedited, so you can see how professionals think and what they talk about. All views belong to the writer.

The All Time High in ES March 2401 and current June 2398 Contracts look to be tested soon.  Targets to be tested 2398/2401/2401/2425 are indicated.  Earnings will be reported and parsed for Guidance April/May and the consensus plods along.  Q1 2017 earnings season is on an approximate 9% growth path according to consensus estimates.  This is released late as usual.  Weak fulfillment of this growth or misses, will cause market adjustments.  There are higher levels of access to consensus estimates, but they are closely guarded and always released late!  They tell the best story on when market direction may reach an inflection point…IRHO.  You can count on it being released late!

 

If you had consensus estimates being +9% for Q1, don’t you think buying the weekly low 2355’s might have been a very good thing to do?  That consensus exists and access is very difficult.  Do you think Guidance is important?  Radar does!  If anyone has S&P Guidance that is more timely, could you please, please, please email me at meee646@gmail.com ????  Please!  Danny?  Anyone?  Please.

 

The Fed raised rates .25% for the third time since December 2015.  Seeing the market climb a “Wall of Worry” comes as no surprise.  It is what the market does.  In the Old Days, three Discount increases of ½% provided rough sledding.  Currently the Discount Rate has increased .75% low to 1.5% today.  Still room for the market to advance.  For now, the perception is the market can still move higher.  Radar believes the Fed is playing catchup.

 

On the M&A front, Intel offered to buy Mobileye.   https://www.google.com/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF-8#q=intel+mobileye&*

 

Radar tries to amass continual progress that may indicate a Bubble area.  This is a positive to see this continue.  IPO’s that come to market in bunches over a relatively short time frame (10 to 30 days) would concern Radar; especially considering valuation and other items on the Bubble Bogie list!  Not happening yet.  SNAP and Mobileye are just taking notes.  Remember, the market has the right to react at any time for anything that clouds the outlook!  Bubbles don’t have to occur.

There are still important political challenges to climb. Healthcare reform is being addressed now. Getting this passed verifies a good path for stocks as it indicates the President’s ability to continue to get things done. After/if Health Care gets done, next will be getting a Supreme Court seat filled and then Tax Reform/Trade. Passage of all of these things promise higher market prices. Failing to pass and appoint may spell an end to optimistic market projections. Trade concerns could also disrupt the upward progress.

Charts:

Quarterly:

Weekly:

Bonds:

Crude:

Reference and Notes:

 

https://insight.factset.com/hubfs/Resources/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_031717.pdf

 

http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html

 

https://www.frbdiscountwindow.org/en/Pages/Discount-Rates/Current-Discount-Rates.aspx

Be sure to look at the comments on these charts!

 

I have written this article myself and it expresses my opinions.  I am not receiving any compensation or gratuities for it.  None!  Radar follows news sources it believes are highly reliable.

 

Radar offers a Free observation of things that show up.  It cannot be all inclusive!  The observations are done through a brief article that takes about five minutes to read each week.  It offers things to consider and actions that prudent people may want to consider.  Radar reads many articles and keeps a calendar to look forward.  People make trades.  Radar observes Value and Earnings.

 

US based stock funds see $0.9B inflow (7th straight inflow) in week ended March 15th v $8.5B inflow in prior week – Lipper- Taxable bond funds saw $5.0B outflow v $2.8B inflows in prior week; first outflow after 11 straight.


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