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Strategist predicts Dow 40,000 but warns of 'more panic days' first

Ines Ferré
Markets Reporter

The stock market is up nearly 30% from its March 23 low. But that doesn’t mean we’re heading straight toward to new highs, says one strategist.

“While I think this rally is very impressive and it has a lot of thrust that you’d normally see at the beginning of new runs, I don't think the all clear has been sounded in the market and we're going back to new highs right now,” Paul Schatz, president of Heritage Capital, tells Yahoo Finance.

He’s not expecting a V-shaped economic recovery like some experts are hoping to see, and so he expects more volatility in the near-term.

“I don't think this year from let's say the March 23rd bottom to Christmas is going to be the straight up move, close your eyes and enjoy,” Schatz said.

Still, he’s a bullish longer term.

“I do see new highs next year, and Dow 40,000 after that,” he added

[Read more: Stock market news live updates: Stocks jump amid COVID-19 treatment optimism, economic reopening discussions]

Paul Schatz is bullish long term, but he expects some panic short term. (AP)

‘More panic-days in the next four to six weeks’

”I would argue that stocks have come so far, so fast,” Schatz said. “I would not throw new money in today. I’d be patient, pick my spot.”

He’s staying away from the most beaten down industries including restaurants, cruises and airlines, even though the airline industry recently received tens of billions of dollars in government aid.

“There's plenty of opportunities in companies and sectors that have not ripped already,” said Schatz.

We’ve just started earnings season, and GDP is expected to contract painfully during the current quarter before potentially rebounding in the 3rd and 4th quarter. On Friday, Philly Fed President Patrick Harker told Yahoo Finance the economy could contract by 5% in 2020.

“The panic maybe over in grand form, but I'll argue that we're going to see more panic-days in the next four to six weeks,” added Schatz.

The Dow (^DJI) and S&P 500 (^GSPC) rallied on Friday on optimism of a COVID-19 drug from Gilead and new guidelines from the federal government as states get closer to opening their economies.

[Read more: Coronavirus: Personal finance tips, news, policy & more from Yahoo Finance]

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Ines covers the US stock market from the floor of the New York Exchange. Follow her on Twitter at @inesreports.

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