U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to be the single most important source of geopolitical risk to the global economy in the third quarter
AUSTIN, Texas, June 18, 2019 /PRNewswire/ -- Stratfor, the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform, identifies the critical geopolitical trends that will shape the actions of nations and industries in the months ahead. In its 3rd Quarter forecast for 2019, Stratfor analysts provide important insight into the intricacies of adapting U.S. trade policy with China, Mexico, Japan, the EU and the UK.
A deepening standoff with Beijing could lead the U.S. to impose 25 percent tariffs on all remaining Chinese imports. Tariff threats against Mexico over immigration, although averted late in the second quarter, remain a lingering cloud over the relationship between the United States and its third-largest trading partner. Differing reactions to Trump's threat of auto tariffs against Japan and the EU demonstrate the geopolitical risks for the United States' relationships.
"Global trade risks overall are dragging on global economic growth," said Stratfor's Vice President of Global Analysis, Reva Goujon. "But President Trump appears to be operating under the assumption that the U.S. economy is on solid enough footing to justify tariffs, both as a wide-ranging negotiating tactic and as a means to drive down the U.S. trade deficit."
The White House will also have to balance escalating and competing foreign policy priorities. Iran is a primary target. The White House hopes that choking off Iranian exports and inflicting heavy economic pain on the Islamic Republic will drive Tehran to the negotiating table. That is not likely to happen, certainly not in the third quarter. More likely, as attacks on shipping traffic continue and Iran re-starts parts of its nuclear program, White House hawks may feel empowered to argue for punitive strikes against Iran.
Stratfor's 2019 Third-Quarter Forecast is designed to help companies, governments and globally engaged individuals stay focused on strategic plans. Stratfor's forecasting for the Third-Quarter focuses on the true geopolitical risks and opportunities amid a chaotic trade and political environment.
Other insights from Stratfor's 2019 Third-Quarter Forecast:
- A High Stakes Tech Battle Will Drive Fragmentation in the Global Tech Sector. The U.S. will continue efforts to cripple Chinese tech giants including Huawei as the U.S.-China battle for technological dominance intensifies;
- In Europe, an escalation of political chaos in the UK along with a drawn out confrontation between Rome and Brussels over Italy's fiscal policies will continue to sap at European growth;
- The potential for skirmishes between the U.S. and China in the South China Sea and in the Taiwan Strait will rise;
- North Korea will push the line on missile testing to break through the stalemate in negotiations with the U.S.
- The U.S. will continue to exert sanctions pressure on Venezuela but will stop short of military intervention;
- The fall of legacy dictators in Sudan and Algeria have emboldened opposition groups hungry for political change. The militaries of both countries trying to manage the tumultuous transition will remain on a slippery slope in trying to satisfy opposition demands while navigating elite power struggles behind the scenes.
The complete 2019 Third-Quarter Forecast is now available at Worldview.Stratfor.com.
As the world's leading geopolitical intelligence platform, Stratfor brings valuable context to global events, empowering businesses, governments and individuals to more confidently navigate their way through an increasingly complex international environment. By leveraging a deep understanding of history, politics and geography in conjunction with our unique methodology, Stratfor delivers informed perspectives on today's events and develops a more accurate view of the future. Information about individual, team and enterprise membership is available at Stratfor.com.
For more information, contact:
Stratfor Director of Public Relations
View original content to download multimedia:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/stratfor-names-key-geopolitical-trends-for-the-third-quarter-of-2019-300868019.html