It’s a new bull market. But the one I’m referring too isn’t focused on possible algo-driven “FOMO” and the likes of the S&P 500. This bull is all about a more sustainable rally occurring under-the-radar in Vaneck Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSEARCA:GDX) and SPDR Gold Shares (NYSEARCA:GLD). And for investors and gold bugs alike, it’s in position to be bought today using either GDX stock or GLD. Let me explain.
It has been quite the rally for the broader market. A punishing corrective move of a couple months abruptly stopped in its tracks in late December and has gone on to establish a historic and an almost equally dizzying V-shaped bottom pattern. Chalk it up to FOMO or the “fear of missing out” in today’s much faster markets driven by algorithms or maybe Wall Street’s pervasive attention deficit disorder as well.
But it’s another solid price move in GLD stock and GDX shares that’s received a good deal less media coverage which looks like the real deal for investors of all types wanting to smartly diversify at opportunistic prices in today’s market. Bottom line or in this case and as I’ll show, the squiggly price lines in GLD and GDX are looking technically “golden” right now.
GDX Stock Monthly Chart
Late 2018 delivered a bit of a reality check for stock market investors programmed over a decade that buying the dip was a viable strategy for easy and linear profits in their favorite companies such as Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) or a smaller growth play like Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU). Still, as the longer-term monthly chart in GDX continues to emphasize, that temporary painful lesson in the broader market pales by comparison.
Over the same period since the financial crisis ended, a quick look at GDX stock’s monthly chart shows a couple multi-year bottoms and shares nowhere near their highs. In fact, gold stocks are off about 67% from the ETF’s all-time-high of $66.98 set in September 2011.
The good news in all of this is the sizable base-building period has established a couple significant double-bottoms good for flushing out all but the most die-hard of gold bugs. What’s more, the price action has also broken a couple equally important downtrend lines in the process.
GDX Stock Daily Chart
Drilling down into GDX stock’s price action on the daily chart, the even better news is that investors can buy into a promising new bull market at value prices, technically speaking. Currently, GDX appears to be bottoming as it tests its prior highs, up-channel and the 38% Fibonacci support level following a pullback of a couple weeks in length. Shares are also oversold based on the stochastics indicator. That’s technically appealing in our view.
The suggested strategy is to go long GDX stock above $22, set a blended money and technical stop below $21 and look to take initial profits at $24, where a bit of channel resistance should come into play.
GLD Stock Daily Chart
For investors wanting more of a pure play rather than the companies using the shovels to dig for gold, the GLD ETF looks similarly compelling on the daily price chart. The gold proxy has also held its value over the past decade better than GDX with shares ‘only’ off by around 35% since hitting its own high in September 2011 and which might also be of interest to some investors.
With shares currently oversold and having pulled back fill a price gap and test channel and the 38% retracement level, all that’s left in our estimation is a purchase above $122. That would signal a bullish reversal of a multi-day doji pattern that’s formed.
I’d set a stop in GLD stock below $120.70. That gives a bit of modest wiggle room to invalidate the potential bottom while also keeping exposure contained to a scant 1%. And on the upside? As with GDX stock, potential channel resistance near $128 looks “golden” for taking initial profits.
Investment accounts under Christopher Tyler’s management do not currently own positions in any securities mentioned in this article. The information offered is based upon Christopher Tyler’s observations and strictly intended for educational purposes only; the use of which is the responsibility of the individual. For additional options-based strategies, related musings or to ask a question, you can find and follow Chris on Twitter @Options_CAT and StockTwits.
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