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Will Strong Jakafi Sales Drive Incyte's (INCY) Q3 Earnings?

Zacks Equity Research

Incyte Corporation INCY is scheduled to report third-quarter 2019 results on Oct 29, before market open.

In the last reported quarter, the company beat earnings estimates by a whopping 53.06%. It beat earnings expectations twice over the last four quarters, delivering average positive surprise of 25.01%.

Incyte Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

 

Incyte Corporation Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Incyte Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Incyte Corporation Quote

Why a Likely Earnings Beat?

Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Incyte this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Earnings ESP: Incyte has an Earnings ESP of +1.15% as the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at 65 cents and the Most Accurate Estimate stands at 66 cents.

Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Factors Driving Growth

Incyte’s lead drug, Jakafi, a first-in-class JAK1/JAK2 inhibitor, which is approved for the treatment of patients with polycythemia vera, and those with intermediate or high-risk myelofibrosis, drove second-quarter results, a trend that most likely continued in the third quarter. Jakafi sales grew 18% in the second quarter.

Moreover, the FDA approved a label expansion of Jakafi for the treatment of steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease in adult and pediatric patients 12 years or older in May 2019 and hence this is the first full quarter when the benefit of this expanded label was realized. Hence, sales of the drug for this indication are likely to have boosted the top line in the third quarter.

The company also earns product royalty revenues from Novartis AG NVS for the commercialization of Jakafi in ex-U.S. markets. Novartis recorded 17% growth in sales in the third quarter and hence Incyte must have received higher royalties for the same period.

We remind investors that while Jakafi sales and royalties are key catalysts for the company’s revenue growth, Iclusig sales and Olumiant royalties also contribute to the top line. Hence, these are likely to have contributed significantly to the company’s revenues in the third quarter.

Apart from the regular top and bottom-line numbers, we expect investors to focus on the company’s pipeline updates on the label expansion of Jakafi into additional indications. Last month, Incyte announced that the first patient has been treated in the TRuE-V clinical program, evaluating the cream formulation of ruxolitinib as monotherapy for vitiligo. Earlier this month, the company announced positive 52-week results from its randomized, double-blind, dose-ranging, phase II study, evaluating ruxolitinib cream in adult patients with vitiligo. In September, Incyte announced positive updated results from the phase II study of pemigatinib in patients with previously treated, advanced cholangiocarcinoma.

Share Price Performance

Incyte’s stock has rallied 23.5% in the year so far against the industry’s decline of 4.6%.

Other Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are a few other healthcare stocks worth considering as our model shows that these too have the right mix of elements to beat estimates this time around.

Gilead Sciences, Inc. GILD has an Earnings ESP of +0.91% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release results on Oct 24.

Amgen, Inc. AMGN has an Earnings ESP of +0.50% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The company is scheduled to release results on Oct 29.

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